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Hopefully if they bother to follow up the FCA investigators can see the incredibly coincidental nature of all this

According to the telegraph First UK omicron victim was 'unvaccinated pensioner hooked by online conspiracy theories'

A 70 year old in one of the highest risk groups by age

For some reasons some of the sentences have come out jumbled on my phone but you get the idea

I have drafted a template message below people can cut and paste to send to Market.Abuse@fca.org.U.K.

Dear FCA market abuse team

Recently it has emerged a Canadian hedge fund called K2 and Associates based in Ontario Canada opened a short position against Cineworld trading as CINE on the LSE.

According to records This short was first hit the threshold for declaration on 24th November - 17 trading days before a critical judgement against Cineworld n the 15th of December involving litigation that awarded its opponent Cineplex a Canadian business a $1bn

During this time the position was increased to 1.77% the on 14th December 1 day before the judgement was announced.

As stated this judgement took place in a Canadian jurisdiction and given the incidental nature and timing of this activity by this actor seems highly suspicious and worthy of further investigation to establish any possible wrong doing

As I note this is a Canadian company involving a company trading on the LSE please advise if your Canadian counterpart should be made aware of this activity

Sincerely

Just curious if anyone on this board has reported K2 to the FCA regarding the short activity and their sudden and increased short position leading up to and on the eve of the judgement being announced

I didn’t think anything of it previously but since Bonkers mentioned perhaps if we complain en masse we might get some attention rather then a lone voice in the wilderness

@Wellington, I would not go as far to say it is unenforceable but rather it needs consideration of CINEs ability to pay it - this is not a punishment it is a compensatory award

It is in CPs interest For any prospect of collecting the award that needs to take account the realistic prospect of the debtor (CINE) being able to pay the compensation and my understanding of that involves a reasonable assessment of CINEs capability to do that - assuming it was $1bn (which I doubt it would be in the final analysis but that’s speculation) that’s a substantial sum for CINE and certainly not something they could pay in one lump sum - not sure if there is a limitation on the period I read somewhere that 10 years is a reasonable maximum period for civil damages in the US but I wasn’t fully convinced by the source

In the end to the extent CINE can pay is an indication of the health of the company - I am not saying it doesn’t hurt them financially but it’s not a reason to shut down the business as some people are going on about here

There is more nuance and clearly notwithstanding all the good points made by Wellington when a judgement is handed down there is no international bailiff that comes a-knocking to force payment it doesn’t work like that .

As has been discussed even assuming that the damages award stands enforcing the judgement is a process that requires careful assessment not to endanger or tip the debtor into insolvency for obvious reasons

So if anyone believes (as I do ) that box office revenues will continue to flow and increase we know that if CINE has the means to pay a fraction of this over a specified period then that can only be done if they have the capability to do so - there isn’t a situation where the fact they owe damages puts them out or business even if it has a drag on the share price improving - I have over simplified this for brevity but it isn’t as binary as some are saying

@mountainous thanks! glad you found it useful - I plan to be around for a while - slightly longer then I expected given the recent news on the court case but happy to stay invested - long and strong and all that!

PHE data

Ages 55-Over 90s - 67%-91% Boosters given (this was before the big announcement most of the most vulnerable & elderly already got boosted)

These age groups accounts for 94% of all deaths (this isn't new we have been told this all year) - and these would be people most likely to be hospitalised first

This is with Delta so assuming Omicron was even as lethal then would stand to reason that this high wave of infections whilst unpleasant wouldn't have a knock on effect on deaths if the boosters work as claimed

The maths don't add up for me particularly if Omicron is milder then Delta

I am not saying people won't get sick or that boosters aren't needed for younger populations ( I had mine today as it happens) but that this idea that a wave of hospitalisations and death is going to lead to a lockdown seems very unlikely purely on the basis the vast majority of those most likely were already boosted and had this along with the flu jab like my parents

I haven't been watching the press briefings but I cannot understand why the PHE data is not being shown in the media to allay some of the fear and panic about death and hospitalisations when clearly even if there are millions of cases those at risk have already in large part been protected

Deaths by age
90+ 12510 21%
85_89 11060 18%
80_84 10131 17%
75_79 8060 13%
70_74 6179 10%
65_69 4908 8%
60_64 2470 4%
55_59 2167 4%

A terrible decision for CW and I am not going to spend time wailing about how wrong the judgment is -(even though it is)Judge Barbara has spoken so now it’s time to appeal.

Today is going to be painful no doubt about it. At least we now know what the maximum penalty is and it can only go down from here if the appeal is successful.

The judgment makes no mention of what time period damages are paid. I don’t suspect it is in CPs interest for CW to go into administration over this as they are likely to be at the back of the queue- presumably (assuming they lost on appeal) that isn’t a lump sum payment

I don’t think there is a conspiracy to mislead but forecasting with limited data is likely to produce inaccurate results and that’s what is being commented on - that’s why research is peer reviewed - at the time of being published this research wasn’t

We are now seeing other opinions being shared and this will improve the forecasts and get to something that more closely resembles likely reality

Seems like the models published yesterday forgot to take account impact new anti virals could have on hospitalisation & deaths -

Quotes from the article

“If this better clinical picture is factored in, the link between infection and severe disease may not be as high as assumed here, and the outcome not as alarming.”

“I suspect these models overstate risk of hospitalisation and deaths and the worst case scenarios are unlikely to be seen.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/will-omicron-kill-christmas-how-science-stacks-up-in-boosters-v-covid-variant-battle

Another fun fact - if you look at 2018 and 2017 compared to 2021 we are at just over 90% of both those years for week 48 - 2019 was an exception due to the release of Frozen 2 - so if anything we are very well placed to hit 90% or more based on past performance

@lhall - at this point in the year it’s worth looking at the weekly figures vs monthly - for week 48 going into December 2021 was 57% of 2019 (117mv205m) - when you look at weeks 51&52 it massively skews as $800m in those two weeks alone - with Spider-Man, Matrix and all the rest it isn’t impossible that we get a comparable spike from the middle to end of month and can end very close to that 1bn figure

@lpd - I have also seen an article from the independent saying they now suspect Omicron has been in Botswana since September -if that is true then looks at the graphs for reported deaths since September has shown virtually no change in that country further enforcing the likelihood this isn’t the doomsday variant some have suspected it to be

@bonkers agree with all that - my general sense is that the average person consuming the general media with no interest in how covid affects equity markets will be either slightly annoyed by these restrictions or indifferent (based on my interactions with friends/family/co workers) . But that as these people have no interest in equities so doesn’t inform how they invest the vast amount of media coverage is just noise.

The article I posted used some credible sources which suggests to me that hopefully this becomes the dominant narrative over time and for those looking to get ahead of the news to inform investment decisions might sway them hence it might impact the share price - of course I would like it to but in some ways not overalls concerned as I plan to stick around for while in this share - certainly at least until 2023 by which time we will have learnt a few more letters of the Greek alphabet I’m sure :)

If this emerging story published today in City AM about omicron being mild and not the cause of recent hospitalisations continues could be a very good week for the share price

https://www.cityam.com/from-covid-curse-to-blessing-coronavirus-experts-relief-grows-as-extremely-mild-omicron-variant-rapidly-exterminates-much-more-deadly-delta-mutation/

Looks like US box office broke half a billion this month and about 53% of 2019 (box office mojo)

Third highest month this year on what wasn’t a particularly strong set of films imho - a solid base to build on and with the impressive December line up hopefully a $1bn dollar month to end 2021 is in sight

From the article - (these are the guys who developed the Pfizer vaccine remember)

Our belief [that the vaccines work against Omicron] is rooted in science: If a virus achieves immune escape, it achieves it against antibodies, but there is the second level of immune response that protects from severe disease—the T-cells,” he told the WSJ.

Says the BioNTECH CEO In an interview with the Wall Street Journal

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/11/30/dont-freak-out-about-omicron-says-biontech-ceo