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Pretty brutal day for risk assets !!
Still, there will be bargains to had and money to be made for those that step back in at the right time…. maybe not just yet but we all know that the best time is usually when it feels like the worst !!
As for Ilika - this drop is not personal and I have no doubt the SP will rise again when general sentiment improves.
I may have missed an earlier conversation but aren't the 'unknown trades' just LSE's revised way of showing the delayed trades ?
They use to just apply the same rule across the board where the buy/sell indicator was based on the time of reporting rather than execution - which obviously is misleading for the delayed trades.
L3, whilst I do expect the cash burn to be lower in H2 I also expect a further cash raise at some point down the line - it's unrealistic to think there won't be. I am hoping though that by then we will have had the promised 'significant' increase in turnover for fy22, further orders and positive news on much larger tenders - particularly from the UK and US Govts. At that point cash will be needed to ramp up production to fulfill the orders.
If the cash raise comes in 12 months time without any Jam then you will be right and I will be wrong, for another year at least.
So, what you’re saying L3 is that past performance IS necessarily a guide to future performance ??
Personally I think that your concerns - jam tomorrow that never comes etc - is reflected in the SP.
This represents an opportunity for investors looking for an asset with the potential for exponential growth but with currently poor sentiment. It doesn’t appeal to you, clearly, but from a risk/reward standpoint it does appeal to me.
No guarantees obviously but there is clearly the potential - KMK have strong IP with proven products and others in development in a massively growing market and limited competitors. They might not take advantage but if they do then I expect multiples of the current SP.
Actually the issue of the options was conditional on the de novo submission not necessarily a successful outcome.
A full listing of all outstanding options can be seen in the latest financial report in the ‘remuneration’ notes. The 2018 and 2020 awards are based on a sliding scale of share performance but my understanding is that 100% will vest at around £2.00 and £1.80 respectively. There are older options with various exercise prices.
Good work on finding those links to the various Govt procurement activities Vascular - I rarely go to the trouble of digging up stuff like that so thank you for your efforts. I see the £94m tender is restricted to 'secret 5 eyes only' and the British Govt must be keen to use a UK based/manufactured product. So KMK must surely be a contender.
Garry Parry's criticism is clearly nonsense - what's the point of these boards if you can't share your research.
Garry, perhaps you'd like to back up your "assertion" that Vascular works for the company with some..... facts ??
Lets not kid ourselves - the 'positive FDA comment' was in there to limit the damage from what is a disappointing update on the Ovarian Cancer trials.
I'm not saying a decision isn't imminent - I have no idea - but AN had previously stated that: "...ANGLE does not intend to provide any further updates on communication with FDA regarding the submission whilst the regulatory process is as expected..."
Back to the Ovarian Cancer trial - from the RNS of 26/4/21: "the HYCEAD molecular analysis of the Parsortix processed samples is expected to take place in in Q3 21 with the study reporting headline results in Q4 21". I'm reading today's RNS as meaning: that the analysis due to have taken place in Q3 21 hasn't yet happened because they couldn't source the critical reagent necessary for the process - and still can't.
Personally, even with covid related supply chain issues, I find this barely plausible but if true then:
Why didn't they plan forward and have supplies on hand when enrolment was completed in April ?
There were only 200 in the US study so we are not talking about large quantities - how can a key element of the process be so difficult to source when the need was foreseeable months beforehand ?
Are the samples still ok to be tested so long after being processed by Parsortix - if the cells are living when harvested they will be multiplying/dying/mutating surely ?
Why have ANGLE waited so long to RNS the delay - if they had shared the problem at the end of Q3 we'd have taken it on board - not unexpected in the circumstances.
I'm probably going to put those questions in an email to Angle's IR but will welcome people's views - other than the standard accusation that I'm shorting or looking for a cheaper buy-in - not so, been here longer than most.
I think we’ll bounce at some point. I wasn’t surprised the SP bounced off 200 and pulled back. I am surprised how far ‘back’. I suspect the all round ‘risk off’ sentiment of this week has propelled it further down than it would have gone under other conditions. We’ll see.
That’s a great post Redwineday. The only thing that concerns me is that the $500 per pack might not be set in stone - I got a sense from one of the RNSs that they might have to be flexible to some extent. Having said that, whilst it changes the economics somewhat, significant market penetration even with a substantial discount still generates substantial revenues - enough to justify multiples of the current SP.
Leem - you had the Investor presentation back in September and various interviews the CEO did around the same time. He’s told us what’s going on and he did make it quite clear that the payer process was a 6-12 month timeline. We are only now approaching 6 months since launch.
I, like everyone else here, am a little alarmed at the current SP but at the same time I’m not blaming it on a CEO who doesn’t spend all his time firing out RNSs with big headlines but which lack substance - beware those CEOs who do.
I assume he’s focused on getting on with the job - which he is well qualified to do - and doesn’t pay too much attention to the short term SP movement. When they do get worried about the immediate SP it often signals a fund raise so you can take some comfort from the fact that there is no news at the moment….