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Easy explanations.
Beijing issued message to Chinese markets, both they and HK responded with both markets up more than their Western equivalents, Hang Seng was up circa 4%, not an insignificant one day index rise.
HSBC obviously heavily influenced by this, given many of their chips on China red, and also fact it had knock on effect to FTSE performance, positives from both sides.
If had not gone up today, then never would have !! Further gains are most likely to be similarly linked in the absence of anything positive from HSBC, expect opposite from Q2 and half year results
I’ve never quite understood a few things :-
1. The need of people online to personalise matters, when only insight not buy/sell is shared
2. The failure of same to recognise market rather than individual stock movement.
3. Identifying a small rise as a Pyrrhic victory when a stock has slid so much further than previous levels.
4. The fact I’ve previously stated the advantages HSBC has, as well as its challenges and failings
5. I do not hold the stock as believe the risk/reward premium is significantly higher than many believe
I never said they were dead, nor likely to be, but they and their SP have been looking pretty sick for some time
A good day across the board, which usually aids financials. HK market up nearly 4% and more conservative FTSE may breach 2%,. I’m waiting and hoping for US to follow suit, with futures looking strong for now.
What has prompted today’s jump ? US virus figures, where deaths lagging the spiralling case numbers ? Always going to be the case, or has Donny declared it as a win against the invisible enemy ? July 4th weekend US hysteria maybe ?
Over £4 and a good foothold for HSBC and as yet profit takers not jumped in, the trend will probably be with broader market as per recent weeks
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/210565/HSBC%27s-Asia-risk-chief-calls-it-a-day
https://www.asia-first.com/newsletter/hsbcs-apac-chief-risk-officer-to-step-down.html
http://socioecohistory.x10host.com/2019/08/14/hsbc-bank-rumors-where-theres-smoke-theres-fire/
Seems you can change your mind also, McKeown ‘decision to retire’ came at a time of varied allegations last year. A few cold months back in the UK, away from the “heat” possibly, a return to the low tax bliss on fat cat salary and missing the newly born grand children ? Yes, McKeown junior and wife were moved into highly paid HSBC HK positions and raced through the ranks some time ago,, maternity pay very favourable with blue chip employers in a tax haven !!
I think they’ve hit a sewer pipe in street, there’s an awful smell in the air
NETFLIX Dirty Money series, tells the whole story and has to be seen to be believed how they still exist today. Somehow I think they will not get away with further indiscretions but after watching this you’d believe anything.
A must watch for anyone who has curiosity around HSBC and whether you want any association whatsoever. The future monitoring of their conduct is my question, there are so many sub plots to a potential ,second series !!
HSBC made one when US asked about Huawei and has made another, there is always a choice and you must live with the consequences.
A detailed account of the one they have now made below. They played the Western card to safeguard coveted USD licence, we had no choice was apparently message to Beijing.
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3091718/china-has-hsbcs-taipan-vice-few-options-fall-line-security
HSBC has a history of doing whatever it takes, as has been seen with the multitude of misdemeanours and poor decisions made globally. The penalties have by no way matched the crimes and the only thing they have feared is the DPA - deferred prosecution agreement. The US effectively threatening to shut them down, but my understanding is the policing of their activities in HK was undertaken by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority HKMA. What interest did the HKMA have in finding them guilty of anything and as this DPA is still in existence, as continued longer after last review, what will China’s local regulator decide next time around ?
Does the US, the West, now continue with this form of policing ? Anyone thinking fox in charge of the hen house ?
https://community.oilprice.com/topic/19665-china-raids-bank-and-investor-accounts/
Remember, all eggs are going in the Asia basket, once 35,000 Jobs are culled in rest of world.
Reaction of US and UK to HSBC declared political stance will be interesting as matters evolve, as will Chinese regulators seeing an outsider seeking profit in their market. Takeover talk excite anyone ? I’m sure HSBC would not surprise anyone with announcement of deal done, would they ?
Just remember what HSBC letters stand for, the B isn’t for Birmingham HQ
Market will move a week ahead of that date then !!
Coca Cola HBC a recent example of that, suddenly a week before Q1 results the SP tanked and COVID blamed, odd how virus threat escalated the week before impact for whole quarter was shared ??
Don’t expect a dip ahead of results to guarantee a bounce back
Beware the Q2 results and the BS that will surround them. Expect worst as Quinn very quickly abandoned the caring approach about redundancies during COVID. The border with China remains closed at least another month, the whole of Q2 was case whereas Q1 saw early weeks bullying of staff in new sales year to grab mainland money. The new low saw large money come for the stock but will/can that be repeated if tested again ? Market swings around broader economics prevailing but be sure to take a close look at how well HSBC is actually fairing during these times.
For sure and already suggestions but most of locals prefer mainland Wechat over WhatsApp already anyway. Name might not be known to those in UK but has something like 10;1 users compared to Facebook’s What’s App, the economies of Asian scale and a better all round proposition I believe and Zuckerberg has challenges from all sides at present. Switching subject and your name, what’s the deal with oil companies at present, ? Easy answer is demand due to virus but oil Prince and companies seem oddly detached ? As are opinions around Oxy, next for certain bankruptcy or future superstar with so many advantages in the Permian basin ? Thoughts ?
There is a very interesting documentary by one of the Australian networks sure to be on YouTube that talks of 100,000 (yes !!) Chinese millionaires that went to Canada, and pretty sure it was Vancouver. Those kinds of volumes and associated wealth makes it a very different proposition, a select community operating within another, that could go either way. Do 3 million HK have that wealth ? No, there will be some but a wide cross section. As already suggested, I don’t see it happening in reality.
Some very large buys indeed, not entirely sure how that works, but you’d think word would have got out and such support would have seen a positive day ensue and not below the support level ? By time market open to retail buyers again, will the SP have surged and how does that make retail buyers in wait feel ? No message passed to HK traders is so, shares opened up just over 1% only and behind Hang Seng index in first hour
Admirable move Boris, not sure either party will quite know what hits it if offer is taken up !
Most 3rd generation young HK have long forgotten what took their descendants to HK, they just think they know what future has in store. Perspective is needed in all sides of this, propaganda is a 2 way street, something we often fail to realise in the West.
My years here have formed some of the following views about the locals, which they and UK will need consider should these moves become reality :-
1. Any temperature below 12C starts thoughts of potential freezing to death and elderly actually do.
2. By nature they are an exceedingly passive breed, 2 million on streets protesting held less threat than a Premiership crowd.
3. Many business leaders, especially HSBC hierarchy, act as dictators but are constantly plotting their own escape plans.
4. They may be surprised in UK you can’t employ a Fillipina for £450 to wipe your ass and everything else including bring up your children.
5. They are very racist towards other Asians, not just the slave employed but professionals from other races especially Indians
How some of that will sit in aggressive, cold, crime filled and minimum wage UK I don’t know ?
Moral obligation fulfilled Boris, but how even the highly educated, salaried and often Western educated would fit into any other Western country, where world will have anti China bias for years to come.?
My bet is that most wont take up the offer. China will make Hong Kong work as saving face is massive part of culture. They are already relaxing controls in the Greater Bay Area and creating a new HK identity. If it Feeds the local obsession, money, then majority will go nowhere.
There is more than 2 sides to this particular story.
I did try to explain !! Firstly need appreciate propaganda is a 2 way street. Xi publicly stated 2 years ago that they won’t interfere in matters outside of their borders but will do utmost with anything that lies within. It is down to the individual to decide if you want to roll with whatever that may mean for HK and HSBC, but this is not a peer to other British banks. It either wins easily or will be virtually reliant upon a system that few understand
Yes and to you. If HK volatility does not phase you then Prudential in similar boat but may be a better “British” bet as they tend to have greater momentum on the good days and percentage returns are proving to be bigger and faster
Nearly a month is a while when you guys were talking about short term trading with me !! That 373p support being tested on a day and week where FTSE going nowhere fast. Your 381p should be fine depending upon timeframe, should be.......
Watch out for the news today. Birthday of PRC and large numbers protesting on streets, as well as increased police presence. Could be an interesting test of stance being taken by both sides when considering the new security laws. Note UK government has stated will reconsider Huawei role in 5G, looks like Mark Tucker opinion counts for nothing with Boris !!
More patience needed, the border with mainland reopening extended a further month at least. Again, I emphasise the significance of the loss of income from repatriation of yuan by HSBC, all AML requirements adhered to of course !! Fair play to the guys who took offence at my sharing truths, there seems to be a lot of support at that 373p level but should be noted that both FTSE and US markets are pretty strong still whilst HSBA is only recovering on the best days. Hovering just above that number now, the downside could be severely tested if a pessimistic swing occurs which has every chance with virus and oil volatility ? Fickle world though and a rebound not beyond question but 400p+ has not been sighted In a while now. Q2/half year update Won’t be far off and if anything but scary I’d be both surprised and suspicious of a polished turd !!