The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
http://dgs.kiev.ua/main/120-talyskiy-koncern-eni-prezentuvav-programu-po-vidobutku-slancevogo-gazu-v-ukrayin.html Today, November 28, during a meeting with the State Service of Geology and mineral resources Ukraine Italian company ENI in cooperation with British company Cadogan Petroleum presented a draft exploration and production of shale gas basin in Lviv. The purpose of exploration should be confirmed assumptions about the potential of Paleozoic shales period and removal of risks to the choice of production venue. Exploration program is designed for the period 2012-2015rr. Experts noted that the development of the region should include non-traditional approach to the study and production, and will definitely use the technology hidrorozryvu. During the exploration process will continue under development to reduce risk, as is a new area for study and needs to adapt in Ukrainian shale rock. The concept of unconventional exploration wells include the work in two stages: drilling vertical wells and horizontal lateral drainage hole, which constitute a cluster. For presentation of the program provides drilling 4 clusters. The total project, including drilling exploratory cluster, geological and geophysical work, purchase and re-processing of 2D seismology will be about 55 million dollars. The United States. Subject to the timely implementation of all program points, the first wells will be drilled search in late 2012
I see this as a simple sensible proposal to allow the BoD to make the right decisions in a timely mannor without always having to seek aproval from the share holders. To be honest how many of the PI's actually take the time to vote- and how many can genuinely say the vote they make is the right one! I generally see the decisions made by the BoD as the correct ones - after all they know the whole picture whereas we are not educated enough on their day to day dealings to make the correct call!
I see the wording of the RNS as a very clear and bold move to discourage short term, quick gain investors. A long term holder, with a reasonable amount of knowledge in the company and sector would have digested the RNS within the hour prior to the market opening as many of you have. This has now removed more short termers and replaced them with meaningful investors, in future we should see less fluctuation on the back a quite insignificant level of bad news
Think the bid rumour is some one being hopeful on another board. Can't see a bid offer coming yet - the volumes increasing because of the news that should be due tomorrow on the testing of pok1. and the fact ENI should sign off some new deals with the Ukrainian gov today, which hopefully CAD should be part of.
http://www.uaenergy.com.ua/c225758200614cc9/0/3a02569704e01844c22579180051e5eb "Oil and gas sector is transformed from" ugly duckling "to" white swan ", - said A. Nesteruk. According to him, all companies in the sector is well positioned for investors." Ukrnafta "is not quite clear the situation with the IPO, but in any case This company shows a more profitable activity than before the crisis. Regal Petroleum and Cadogan Petroleum, in his opinion, are currently at the beginning of its takeoff. Both companies are major plans to increase production, have the necessary technology and support of shareholders.
Does anyone know what a good result with the Pok1 drilling would do to the share price?... Pok has a contingent reserve of c50mmboe. If its good news ENI are likely to buy the other 30% (totalling 60%) leaving us with 40%. so a good result would leave us with 20mmboe valued at what £30 a barrel in the Ukraine domestic market. £600m of reserves. c£200m to get it out? £400m profit over several years, additional sp to be c5th of that? c30p. so is the target 70p with good results? Anyone like to put a target on this?
On 24 July 2011, the Group recommenced drilling operations on the Pokroskvoe 1 well and on 16 August the well has reached its final depth. The Company expects that preliminary well testing will be completed by the end of September. A work-over drilling unit is on site at the Zagoryanska 1 well to test zones within the Lower Visean interval which appear to be gas bearing from petrophysical well logs. The new 2D seismic data acquired on the Bitlyanska licence area has been processed and the 3D data sets on Pokrovska, Pirkovska and Zagoranska are near completion.
Hopefully tomorrow they announce a sizable increase in production flow and some good profits - should help the short term sp untill we get the drill results. May be an update of the drill depths etc will also be included
When there's termoil in the markets the small caps and AIM's get hit hard... Being largly tied in with Itailian ENI has obviously scared investors as the now recon debt in in Itialy will soar from 128% GDP to 150% GDP over the coming years and they are likely to default like Greece, Ireland and Portugal! On a possitive we already have the funding from ENI to perform the exploration licences and I cant imagine a large oil company like ENI will pull back from such a lucrative investment opp in the Ukraine! We desperately need some good results from the drill in the next 60 days to prove what this company is capable of and underpin its new found integrity!
I was reading betwen the lines - 2 paragraphs down from that in the report... "Since year end, the group has announced that it has reached agreement with Eni S.p.A ("Eni"), the major Italian integrated energy company, fo the acquisition of an interest in the Group's Pokrovskoe licence. Subject to approval by shareholders, Eni will initially acquire a 30 per cent interest in the licence, with the option to acquire a further 30 per cent interest in the future. The consideration will comprise 100 per cent funding of a work programme of approximately USD30 million (excluding VAT)", ...KEY PART..."which will be used to fulfil the work obligations on the licence through the deepening of Pokrovskoe 1 and deepening or re-drilling of Pokrovskoe 2 in order to will test the potential of the Upper and Lower Visean intervals." This suggests they dont plan to begin the work until the agreement is signed in June! Make sense really - you would want the deal signed and sealed with the money in the bank beore you continue as the results are a major factor of the buy out value. So my expectation was an RNS at earliest end q2 but would expect it to be begining of q3. IMO of course. But either way it looks like the drilling should be positive so am willing to hold this investment as it has a lot of upside potential. GLA
Very rough numbers - we have about £300m (c3mmboe) of proved and probable reserves (minimal risk). If we have some good results on the exploration and development of the other potential reserves c500mmboe then CAD could be sitting on upto £50B. This will obviously be shared as part of the farm in/out conditions but this has massive upside potential. We should have results of the ENI agreed licences by year end - so lets hope for good news and see the share price operating well above the £1 / £2 mark
Not sure how this will play out thinking it will be bouncing around the low 20 mark tomorrow. The only hope for early sustained gains is if the Irish economy picks up over the year whilst the bank is going through its restructuring. Unfortunately its out of the hands of the bank. At best - Worth considering what happened to RBS down at 10p during doom and gloom then up around the 50p. Lets hope for signs of an Irish recovery sometime soon! I would however suggest holding - I will be. Its worth considering the view of a potential investor not currently in IPM. Share price vlow complete security now given to international investment, plans to return the restructured bank back to profit by 2013 (without the assurance arm). May look like a very lucerative investment from an outsider. Be careful of being scared out in the low points. Theres gonna be some sharks after a quick 50/100% profit being played here!
This cant be good news - think all may be lost hear - I am suprised by the suspenion today (really didnt beleive there was a real risk of fully nationalisation) but hope there reasoning is legitamate - Another alternative would have been to put out an RNS to inspire some market confidence - seen it in the past - so I suspect there's not much hope left wiothin the board!!! Fingers crossed that Im wrong on this!
Not sure if the assurance arm could sustain the losses of the banking arm - lets wait and see on friday. Just to let you know IMHO i cannot see the two arms seperating and a share holder retaining any real value. I was in CTT which suffered heavy losses but did have a profitable arm to the buisness. The parent company 'Cattles' went into administration and the profit arm 'welcome finance' was purchased by a private investor. The shareholders were given 1p per share!!! Check CTT it was valued at £5 a year before and 6p before suspension. Dont hold your breather that we will have any worth while stake in the assurance arm! However as a possitive I dont beleive all is lost, this will not be nationalised. But this will probably bounce no higher than 70p on the best of news and may subside again. Lets hope for the best. GLA
Been in this share for a while now, brought at 20p before the days of the 3-4p low. Topped up gain at 21p a couple of months ago, days before the rises. Im now thinking its time to have a top up - cant see too much risk of it going much lower than high 30's and the potentials are still massive.
"No news from Cadogan this month but it seems that QVT has now completed its sell down and the first stage of the company's re-rating has taken place. The next stage will be based either on the company's production success and forward potential as it works to triple production this year or recognition of its in-situ resources. Just to remind readers we have not included Cadogan's western assets in our valuation of 114.2p/sh. Those assets are still under farm-out conditions but are of a scale similar to the company's eastern assets."
So at 35ish pence this is the correct value for its current production and assets... So whens it going to move - (Probably stating the obvious) we need two good rns's to move this forward to the 100+ mark. IMO short/medium target price... 1. Production from the c450boepd to 2000boepd+ by year end. If we CAD achieve this then the market value must be about £200m (60-70p on top of the current sp) 2. Results of the drilling op. 400m away this needs to show significant commercial flow - news should be soon on recommencing of drilling. If the news is good then this should move the price by initially c 10- 20p Pending both sucessful rns's then this could be worth 35+60+20 = 115p IMO. Longer term the price should continue to rise if the drilling is sucessful and operational profit is realised.
IMO only further BIG gains will now come after results of the drilling ops and news of increased productivity, should creep slowly upwards though we may be some small retreat as QVT offload any little stake they have left (below the 3% threshold)... Still think this is good for £1+ by year end if news comes good "It appears that former significant shareholders QVT and HBK are now both below a notifiable holding with a new significant holder (at 7.5%) hoving into view on Monday after a large block sale the previous week. For the last 6 months, at least once a calendar month, a breakout has been attempted and knocked back by increased selling from across the Atlantic. That barrier is now overcome. The last of the trio of hedge funds that were in favour of Cadogan's liquidation earlier this year are now all but gone. This means that over 50% of the value of the company has changed hands in the last 8 months and the price has still almost doubled. There will be a few million shares left for QVT to sell down over the next month or so but the peg to the Weiss sale price appears to have been broken at last. With the share price now at our estimated value of current production plus cash and receivables, the market should now look at the in-ground assets as this turnaround story continues. With no drilling news since the suspension of Pok-1 late in December due to poor weather and some 400m short of TD, we look forward to news of the well's completion and possible testing. It may be perverse of us to mention and of little help to long suffering investors, but no rumours reaching these shores is a sign of a tight team under good management, especially on a land well."