RE: MMs8 Sep 2022 13:54
"Hexam, would you agree that they'll have to put a value to the NewCo after restructuring?"
Yes, and I've said before that I would expect this to be north of $2bn (based on outlook for profits and simple logic that much less and they would just go after the assets and not faff about with a chapter 11).
So basically I agree with what you now say! (The bit I was disagreeing on was that there will be an IPO.) If it all succeeds and existing shareholders get 10% of newco then there is a decent return to be had (and agree there is no reason the Ch11 should send the sp to zero). The thing is we just don't know what will happen, which is why the sp is hanging around 4 to 5p. It all depends on that percentage which in turn depends on other things (how much debt is foregone, performance over next few months, court case, rent negotiations, part-sale of the business(?), attitude of other lenders etc.). Add to that the risk it may just all collapse.
There are so many unknowns and twists and turns to come that anybody that is able to call it confidently one way or the other how the sp moves from here has one heck of a crystal ball (or more likely think they know more than they actually do - or even more likely are just ramping or deramping for their own interests).