Member Info for Hexam

Waffen - why do you think that the projections are poor?

They assume that in 2027 (the end of the published projection) that PBT will be higher than it was in 2019 (by around $100m) with higher revenue (up $300m) partially offset by higher total expenses.

So basically they are saying they will more than get back to pre-pandemic levels of revenue and profitability and will do so within 5 years.

Do you think that revenues and profit will increase much more than this compared to pre-covid? And why?

Nice fairytale :)

They are paying upwards of $5bn for it - not sure they will feel it is that cheap - especially as nobody was willing to buy it for that much.

Stanley - They would not have needed to adjust the plan at all as they explicitly put the contingency in it that if they sold RoW then the $1.46bn of new loans they were seeking would be reduced by whatever it sold for. So if it sold for $100m they would raise $1.36bn of new loans and if it was $1bn they would only raise $460m. The plan was such that the sale of RoW would not benefit us regardless of price.

In any event the judge will surely know the amounts of any proposals.

Whether it was $100m or $1bn makes no difference to us - it would just have reduced the level of new debt the lenders are seeking under the plan by a different amount.

So today's announcement makes no difference (good or bad) to existing shareholders.

If the shares are delisted (and cease to trade completely) then the shorters get their winnings as the shares are worthless.

If the shares are suspended then they are stuck and have to wait.

Can’t imagine there are many shorters left now though?

RoW isn’t part of Chapter 11 but that doesn’t mean we keep it after the proceedings complete. We don’t.

This is clear from what has gone on so far but in any case if it were possible that we would keep RoW then the sp would be well over 10p now, not under a penny.

It’s the lenders who are keeping RoW - not us.

Wolf - but that’s my point. I’m not sure if the new debt will (or even can) be held by the new owners or if it will be raised from the open market.

Must admit that I’m not interested either way though as it won’t affect what I end up with.

Even though the debt is a lot less they are projecting around $225m pa in interest payments so the terms actually seem much worse and in total a similar amount of interest to what they were paying previously (pre-Chapter 11) on much higher debt.

Obviously interest rates have gone up significantly but perhaps it also reflects expected challenges in raising these new funds hence the need for relatively attractive terms? I'm not sure if these new loans are open to the current lenders (who will become the new equity holders) or not.

Yes Wolf, so they end up with about $300m more in cash plus access to $200m more if required - whilst the debt pile reduces to just over $1.4bn.

Hi Wolf,

Under the plan:

- The $1.9bn DIP is repaid (from raises below)

- All other debt goes to zero

- $800m of new funds are raised through new equity ($400m in a RI and $400m in direct issuing of shares - both to existing lenders)

- $1.4bn of new funding is also raised through a new loan facility which is to be fully drawn down immediately (although amount raised will be reduced by the proceeds from any ROW sale)

- New $200m RCF to be used as required

Of course this is just the plan, which is yet to be approved

The debt after this plan is $1.46bn so around $4.5bn reduction in debt.

Please try to the read the plan properly rather than just make up rubbish.

Yes, the dockets are all about a possible delisting but they might still be suspended e.g. pending news and/or if there has been a leak.

Otherwise would expect them to keep trading up to any outcome being announced - as they have repeatedly said.

A suspension can though be requested by the company.

They’re very different but can have the same impact for shareholders I.e. shares are soon to be worthless.

With suspension the shares cannot be traded but it may only be temporary so there is always hope they trade again.

With delisting they cannot be traded anymore on the exchange they were listed upon but they may be tradable off the exchange - but more likely it signals the end of the road.

I think GS may still be in as I haven’t seen an RNS saying they’ve exited but yes, all the other institutions have long since bailed.

This has been covered many times on this board as lists are often posted mistakenly that include HBOS, IG, HL and others but as you say this is just PI money invested via those institutions’ platforms and that has been aggregated.

"notice how he has turned strategically positive now, now that he has bought in lol, seen him do it loads of times before Guys like Hexam have no moral compass, they are advising to their agenda. constantly telling folks what to do with their money, strategically of course."

Unfortunately I've been 'bought in' for nearly two years now and as for turning 'strategically positive' for the avoidance of doubt I am very negative now and pretty much written off what I have left in CINE - and my posts clearly reflect this. And I have NEVER advised anybody what to do with their money - my 'moral compass' just wouldn't allow it. I really think you need to work on your comprehension skills Poor before you make things up about people.

It’s not me who’s making up stuff.

Fifty-Fifty? I think you need a lesson in probability - like Poor.

My views are open - I just prefer to base them on facts and information, not conspiracy theories and other flights of fancy.