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AIM - If the machines have 160% more chance of finding BTC then that means revenue will increase by around 160% i.e. more than double.

The more machines that adopt it though that 160% more chance reduces and so then of course will the revenue but so long as not too many adopt it the revenue should still more than double.

I can’t see where the doubt is (apart of course about whether the 160% method B claim is proved true when applied to actual mining).

Brew - Must admit that's news to me. I'm not aware of any third party intervention increasing hash by 20% (note, even if it does that would increase electricity too by 20% as well)? Also although it is not brute force, QBT will increase the measured hashrate as that is simply a backward calculation based on how quick BTC are being mined.

Aim - I'm assuming we are talking method B which will more than double revenue if the claims are true and not too many adopt it. On your other question I don't see why buying or not buying new machines is necessarily affected by adopting method B as though it would make sense to go the QBT route, it makes even more sense to do both (again, if the claims are true).

Pain - I think the risk is huge so my stake is correspondingly small. So whilst it's never nice to lose an investment I will just put it down to another chancy one that didn't pay off (less than 10% of my portfolio is in AIM). If it succeeds though then it will pay-off big time and although my stake is small it will still give me a very welcome, but not life-changing, amount.

Yes - revenue will be increased by 160% (for the first machines) but this will reduce as more machines adopt the technology (if it works) - reducing to zero if of course if absolutely everybody adopts it.

Brew - Isn't the Braiins fee a percentage of total revenue? What are they offering that creates any additional revenue? I don't think the two models are comparable and I think QBT would be pretty poor negotiators if they more than doubled a company's revenue and only took 10% of the increase.

Jam keeps posting my analysis but the key thing is that it is predicated on the 160% improvement being true which I don't believe for one minute that it is. I was just trying to show how much it might be worth on the basis that I'm wrong and they do really have this miracle piece of technology.

"Does Art have a 'real world ' value Fleccy"

Sounds like you're actually agreeing with Fleccy? Like art, Bitcoin is an option as a store of value (and so far has proven to be a very good one if you don't mind the volatility) but, also like art, it's pretty useless as a currency and won't solve all the world's economic problems.

So many wannabe economists seem to be on these boards, most spouting their anti-establishment rhetoric but without giving a coherent argument about how exactly bitcoin solves all of fiat's undoubted problems and doesn't create many of its own in the process.

Yes GI, almost exactly doubled, which is pretty much what happens every year and why all miners need to run faster and faster just to stay still - and why the weakest (like ARB) are left hoping for BTC to do something extraordinary to keep in the race at all.

The halving just throws in an added obstacle (or leap!) every four years.

Definitely won’t be as high as $7m unless BTC rises by a lot more and very quickly. It’s much better to work out expected numbers starting from a company’s previous figures then allowing for changes in difficulty and BTC etc. rather than straight from industry averages - much more reliable as every company is so different.

Btw I think the error in your calculation is the assumption that they actually have 2.8EH working 100%. They don't, they typically operate at about 70% of this due to their ageing machines, typical levels of downtime and generally an inefficient set-up that they always seemed to have been dogged by.

"For Argo that means 105 x 2,800 x 31 = $9m revenue in March less a bit for downtime."

No it doesn't. On current level of difficulty, level of transaction fees and BTC price they are heading for about $6m revenue for March.

As for February this will be around $5m (so probably lower than Jan).

"The market makers seem to have forgotten that there job is to maintain liquidity not service Frasers"

Is anybody having a problem buying or selling stock then? I think the low volumes just reflect apathy - nothing more than that. Once there is meaningful news, good or bad, I expect volumes will pick up but there is nothing much to excite anybody at the moment (apart from speculating as to what MA is possibly up to). Their terse update on the results just confirmed their bleak outlook on growth for this year so its unlikely there will be much movement on volumes or sp until much later in 2024 (unless any bid speculation starts up in earnest).

"Tangible is they have software which is 2.6 x 160%more probable of mining a BTC, it’s being live tested now!"

It's not tangible until we can actually see proof of that in mining actual bitcoin. Until then it's just a theory, a promise, an ambition, a hope or whatever other intangible thing you would like to call it.

"If there is a bright side - Argo will have a good Feb month of mining revenues based on bitcoin price"

Actually growthinvestor I think they are heading for around $5m revenue for February, less than the $5.3m they earned in January so I doubt we will get earn any respite there. (This is caused by the reduced transaction fees, higher difficulty and fewer mining days offsetting the BTC price rise).

So long as BTC holds up March should be quite a bit better though - but then, as you say, the halving looms.

“How in anyone's world can BC be on 62.5k USD and ARB sit on just over 19p

It was about 3 pound last time in July BC was 65K”

We obviously live in different worlds as in mine I’m amazed it’s as much as 19p. What it was last time BTC was $65k is totally irrelevant as the company is a shadow of what it was then and the potential it then had has all disappeared in the Texas white elephant, rising debt, vanishing HODL, Pluto folly and ageing machines. You might be able to find it though at the bottom of an unfinished swimming pool.

Another one perhaps who should listen to the MARA call?

"QBT v ARGO or none or both!"

Well ARGO are unlikely to be around at the end of 2024 so QBT should at least win that one.

Yes, my hope is that FOMO trumps reality and common sense, with enough people jumping on (or staying on) the bandwagon. Will be interesting to see how the miners do today with BTC looking strong again but the signs weren’t good yesterday and I don’t think Mara’s results have helped much.

“This really should be in the mid 30s by now”.

Why? Certainly not fundamentals as it shouldn’t be even 10p on those. It can only get to the 30s purely on the back of BTC rising and creating FOMO and the illusion that ARB actually has a future.

Unfortunately though it looks like investors are finally waking up to just how rubbish the economics are for bitcoin miners and the dilution impact to shareholders that is on top of that.

However, sentiment could return and still take ARB much higher, especially if BTC really goes on a tear, but on any rational basis ARB is overvalued now, not undervalued.

Too sensible.

How on earth do you figure that ARB will mine at least 30% more BTC in February? Difficulty is up, transaction fees are down and of course February had two days fewer mining than January. Adds up to a 20% fall. You really do take the biscuit - but I'm afraid all you'll be left with is crumbs.

Unless of course you are actually talking about revenue but even there they will be doing well to increase it at all despite the rise in BTC price because - let alone 30%. Simply ridiculous.

Btw ARB will NEVER be 100p again.

"Placings was at 20.50 when BTC was around 38000, next update should see this over 30 depending on how many coins mined"

Will be about 100 or so BTC mined for February - around 20% drop from January so no way will this be 30p. It will probably struggle to reach 20p unless BTC moves some more. In any case the monthly updates don't tend to have much impact on sp anyway - whether they be good or bad.