Member Info for Hexam

"I'll stick with 10% until we know any better"

Fair enough though personally I'd be surprised if KM and, in particular, Debs have not performed much better than a 10% drop this year which is what you are implying if you think core brands in total have fallen by 10% (as per interims) and that PLT and the BOO brands are at least as good as this. I would have though Debs are nailed on to have actually increased revenue and perhaps KM too? This would mean the other core brands would need have fallen by more than 10% to offset them and give an overall 10% core brand reduction.

Can't believe I'm more optimistic on Debs and KM than you - and who claims I never say anything positive :-)

"Boohoo and PLt will make up the vast majority of the revenue from the PRECOVID brands. The others have been deprioritised."

Exactly - it is basically these two companies that make up most of the like-for-like comparison.

"Boohoo and PLt are part of the five core brands going forward and the half year results stated that revenue in these was down 10%. So why are you assuming a 15% fall."

Because it is the other core brands that have been shoring the numbers up with KM and Debs growing fast versus BOO and PLT declining. I'd be very surprised if BOO and PLT do not perform below that of the group as a whole.

I agree that the overall number is more important, I was just responding to the aggressively made challenge to me about like-for-like sales not being anywhere near as low as pre-covid levels. I have now answered that fully, with evidence, so hopefully now the debate can move on.

In the year before Covid (to end Feb 2020) BOO received revenue of £1.22bn from the companies that were part of the BOOHOO group for at least the most part of that year (PLT, MissPap, Nasty Gal and BOOHOO itself).

To the end of 2023 those same (i.e. like-for-like) companies did £1.43bn in revenue.

So if sales in FY 2024 for those companies fall by 15% they will be back below pre-Covid levels. This is well within the guidance for the fall in total revenue that BOO has set so my conclusion js that on a like-for-like basis revenue is likely to be back to pre-covid levels or there or thereabouts (obviously depending on where exactly they land in guidance and how the pre-covid companies do relative to that).

Happy to discuss the above if anybody thinks I've got the numbers wrong or that my logic is flawed. If though you just want to deflect and talk about inflation, what other posters are saying about eachother or where you all go on holiday etc. then not really interested. In the absence of any proper challenges though I hope this finally puts this particular topic to bed.

"So far though I'm the only person he has requested to leave him alone which I take as a win."

Another twist of the truth. If I wanted anybody to leave me alone I'd just filter them. Easy. I just don't engage with you much as it's painful conversing with someone who doesn't understand what they are talking about and constantly moves the goalposts to try and disguise that fact. At least T4G is a bit more clued up...but still just as twisty.

Just more spurious information. However much you bombard the board with stats and references to suggest how it’s all going so swimmingly for BOO the actual numbers that count (revenue, profits and cash) seem to suggest otherwise and unless there is a major surprise in the year end results it looks like it’s going to stay that way for now.

So you can point to market stats, site visits or whatever - but none of it seems to be feeding through to BOO’s performance, not yet at least.

Therefore I can only conclude that all the things put forward by you and others over the last few years as positive indicators are in fact largely irrelevant ones or, if they are relevant, they are ones that BOO simply haven’t been able to take advantage of so far.

The results don’t lie.

It's all very well banging on about similarweb but unless those site visits translate to revenue and then to profits then it doesn't matter how good they are. If BOO are doing so well on these stats then they don't seem a very reliable lead indicator given where they are predicting revenue to be to the end of February. Of course the more recent stats won't show up much in the year end results (and the most recent not at all) but I seem to remember good figures on similarweb being quoted for quite some time now.

It's the revenue (and profit) that counts and at the moment BOO are projecting a 7 to 17% drop for the six months to the end of February versus last year compared to an 18% drop for ASOS - which would therefore be better but not exactly knocking it out of the park. ASOS's results were poor in my view (despite the obvious progress on inventory and hence improvement in cash flow temporarily) and I suspect/hope BOO's will be a bit better especially on margins and profits (as well as revenue - though not on cash flow as they benefitted from their big inventory reduction in the previous year)...but not long to wait now to find out for sure.

"Noticed your 10 recommend a minute software is on the blink"

Maybe because QBT's programmers got their hands on it?

Not trying to annoy anybody, just pointing out how rubbish your estimate was. In the meantime the share remains becalmed in the absence of news.

"I said ‘estimated’."

Fair enough, but there are good estimates and bad estimates and yours is a pretty bad one. But it matters little either way and the key thing here is not the timing of the halving but whether QBT really have anything that can take advantage of it. Maybe in a few weeks or months we'll find out one way or the other but my 'estimate' is that we won't hear anything soon and when we do it won't be good.

Something a little wrong with your maths - halving should be very early tomorrow morning on UK time (BST) - maybe around 1am depending on just how quickly these last few blocks are mined.

It will be very early Saturday morning our time (late Friday US) - there is no need to guess unless you are going for the exact minute.

"After halving , BTC up or down makes no difference."

Funny how your narrative has changed since BTC has been falling. Far cry from the running commentary on the rising price, wild predictions on how high it would go and how fantastic all this was for QBT. Now silence on the price movement and it turns out it doesn't really matter anyway (well, at least until it starts going up again).

"PS Hexam you obviously did not read my Post."

I obviously did. You explained why you didn't contact him on the Telegram group to see if he was free as you are not on on this. Presumably you both have access to text on your phones though?

"I posted recently requesting Jambone to contact me (by phone) and someone said I could have just contacted him on Telegram. I am not on Telegram, and I talk on the phone regularly with Jambone."

Then why not just text him like a normal person would rather than use the message board to ask him if he was free? Absolutely bizarre.

"I don't trust them at all"

Personally the ones that I trust the least are those that feel the need to keep reminding us of how experienced they are and how much they understand the market. Although they may indeed have been doing it for a long time I find that they are typically the ones that have learned the least. Never trust somebody so keen to blow their own trumpet as it is usually out of tune.

"When when when will it crack on"

When there is positive news or the rumour of positive news. Pretty much that simple really. Until then it will remain becalmed at best.

Spitfire - I was just trying to find a kinder way of saying 'just because you are stupid doesn't mean that everybody is'. Guess I wasted my time.

I'm just tired of the many like you on these boards who have nothing to add to the debate but instead just use it as a place simply to vent their own anger and frustration on to other people. I suppose the simple answer is to use the filter button so that's exactly what I'll do in your case whilst you continue to howl at the moon. Cheerio.

Spitfire - You really can't comprehend, much less accept, that some people might actually know a bit more than you which given how your contribution to this board seems to consist solely of slating other posters rather than trying to say anything remotely intelligent yourself is hardly surprising I suppose.

As others have stated, nobody really knows what's going to happen to BTC and they would be idiots if they thought they did (though some guesses may be more educated than others). For ARB though you have to be pretty clueless not to see that, almost certainly, the writing is on the wall for them. All it takes is a basic understanding of their situation, especially their financials, lack of scope for growth and the factors that affect them. It's not rocket science or even much by way of guesswork, just projecting their position forward under most plausible scenarios.

So if the doom and gloom merchants on ARB come across as self-important know-it-alls to you then so be it but just maybe they are only reasonable people who just happen to understand more about what's going on and are happy to share that - not because they are really nice, altruistic people (or trolls) but simply because if anybody saw somebody else walking towards a cliff out or about to run out into a busy road then hopefully they would at least be decent enough to warn them of what's very likely about to happen. And in response to talkinboutWillis I do think that's 'worthwhile' and worth repeating but agree that everybody is entitled to make their own mind up however well-intentioned and appropriate the warnings may be.

“None of the above hold shares”

‘Well that's a pack of lies’ as I do, but think what you will.

“So come on Hexam, let's see them”

Funnily enough I don’t answer to you whatever your ego might think (though I’ve already pretty much give you two already).