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"Risk reward is certainly weighted to the upside now."
What BS, you cant say that is certain. The previous huge market cap was based on what is now clearly seen as based on BS. Every drill result in the kimerage has been disappointing.
My view this in the long term has further to fall, just will not produce enough oil. The long overdue CPR is needed to prove me wrong.
Looking forward the the latest short term initial fluid flow results, ukog have a history with those. Easiest figures to game.
Losing money every year. Likely needs to sell more shares to afford any more drills. Long overdue results, history of silence when things go wrong. 300bopd.
Paid off one convertable loan and took on another of almost the same size in the small print.
That is right out of the blue the company has installed an even bigger pump, you think that is good news??
I'm sure you will be shouting from the rooftops when UKOG announces some amazing initial "fluid" flow rates after the rework. You might be the one who is surprised if the long term production never seems to match up...
Still waiting for a CPR with anything that suggests this company could even cover its admin cost.
Before you only had one data point. Now we have several. The "gusher" now has a bloody big pump on it and only returns 300bopd...
10p would be 1billion pound company. How the hell do you get there from 300bopd with an expected base depletion of 30% down a year.
UKOG still have not shown:
a) They can drill a well and have it return cash more than what was spent
b) drill a well have have a high chance of it not totally failing. The silence around HH2 suggests they are perhaps 1 for 3.
You need both conditions to be able to build any kind of momentum.
Strawman argument. I havent seen anyone saying ukog will not produce oil. It is producing oil ffs.
The problem is it doesn't seem likely it will produce enough oil to fund future wells. Nor enough oil to be long term profitable.
My issue with ukog and the ramping crew is how it treats ordinary investors. Talking advantage of their misunderstanding of initial flow rates to project a value onto the company which has been used to line the pockets of the ceo and rampers.
I'm sure they will, short term testing rates after pressure build up and rework. They are never really forthright about the long term flow projections though...
I'm sure the pump and dump squad will be in full force shortly.
Well I expect they are reworking the well so they don't have to acknowledge a deplection rate, and instead get to try to spike the market with yet more BS initial flow rates. How about they concentrate on a new CPR with yearly modeled rates and transparency.
About 25% of my holdings are in O&G how does that make me a swampy. You just call people names, you never have any actual content.
Face it UKOG have a long history of trying to spike the market with a great RNS followed by a good RNS, followed by placing, followed a decent RNS, followed by silence. All this focus on initial flow rates rather than yearly projections and flow depletion rates isn't healthy.
Re: 3500BOPD
I think there isn't much of chance of that. My optimistic prediction is after the rework they will claim initial fluid flows of say 800bpd. In reality they will be at say 550 of oil for the first few months and probably averaging 500 for the year. Next year at around 350bpd. No hope of long term sustaining profit unless costs are drastically cut.
Agreed, but do note while they paid off one convertible loan they took on another just. Though with better terms where they can decide to convert and no discount.
"The Company has signed a binding Heads of Terms with PW Well Test Ltd ("PW") for a £1.65 million purchase of all existing PW Equipment used to produce oil and gas at Horse Hill. The purchase is via three equal instalments of £550,000 as follows:
- Initial instalment payable upon signature of the asset purchase agreement via equal amounts of cash and UKOG shares. Full title to the Equipment will transfer to UKOG upon this initial payment.
- Two further instalments at 6-monthly intervals, or earlier at UKOG's discretion. Each payment either wholly in cash, or wholly in shares, or part cash/part shares, each at UKOG's sole discretion.
- In the case of payment via shares, the number of shares issued to PW shall be determined using the 5-day volume weighted average price ("VWAP") of UKOG ordinary shares on the day prior to the instalment payment date.
"
" Cannacord investing". Nope. The RNS stated Cannacord on behalf of "DISCRETIONARY CLIENTS". Different thing altogether, not an institutional investor. Basically just a nominee account... Yet more retail.
2020 is still speculation. You need an updated CPR with details of long term flow projections and depletion rates. Investing before this information is known is speculation as you can't determine the value of the asset.
What we do know is the existing longer term flows have been tiny. The company level costs have been huge. Good luck.
No evidence this company will ever be long term profitable at the company level. Asset level profitability is irrelevant unless you are SS and it just covers your salary.
Speculation of higher long term flow rates is just that. Speculation not investing. Some people are easily parted with their money.