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US based Interactive Brokers have been busy on the BID side with 3,000,000 orders during the last few days. BID orders placed from 18.9c to 19.2c. As soon as one Bid order is filled a new 3,000,000 bid order pops up. Interesting times. Heimdal
Good morning Professor, good to have you back onboard. My main worry is the overheating US market. The current S&P500 10-year P/E ratio is now a staggering 33.91. This is 71% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E over 1 standard deviation above the modern-era average. Such high P/E ratio is clearly unsustainable and a correction might well be underway now, dragging the rest of the world markets down as well. In the last couple of weeks we have seen a dramatic increase in the short selling ratio in many stocks on the HKSE which is a cause for concern. It is not possible to short 575 as the MCap is too low at the moment. This trading week will be most interesting with the revolutionary Reddit army and all. On the long track this should only be a bump in the road for the 575 sp. Heimdal
Good observation Escovido but not back in February-March when the global market tanked.
Markets are overheating (not least in the US) and a 10-20% correction might well be due. If so
we might find support around the 15c level. Time will tell. On the long track I am sure we will do well.
KGI Asia and Fulbright pushing the sp higher at the moment, P&D before a correction? Remember the spike end of January last year where we went from 10c to 20c within two days on high volume?
The Hang Seng Index has risen +3,000 points (10%) during the past one month.Such a rapid rise is unsustainable, as such I expect we must be very close to a correction as the market is overheating. I expect we will find support around the 15c level before we move up again. Your thoughts? Heimdal
News from DLI: https://www.bio-itworld.com/news/2021/01/21/deep-longevity-building-an-arsenal-of-aging-clocks
During the last two months Regent Pacific released six Operations Updates and I expect the frequent updates will continue which will drive the share price upwards:
?Final profit warning (Feb)
Confirmation of Macao launch (March)
China CTA news and invoice for HK$25m (March)
Confirmation of Taiwan launch (April)
Confirmation of China clinical trial start (April-May)
USA marketing study news (May)
Potential USA partner ahead of Phase III (would have a major impact on sp)
Confirmation of USA Phase II study submission (first half of 2021)
News on Japan progress
News on EU OTC roll out progress
Potential news on LATAM, India and Middle East commercial strategic partners
I also expect frequent updates on DLI developments. It is now six weeks since we closed the deal and as such an update is overdue.
All in all a fair bit of news to look forward to.
Heimdal
I think there is a good chance PS will be snapped up within the next two years by one of the big players such as Pfizer for ?US500m. Current Mcap is just US$50m so a share price of HK$2 might be achiveable? Completion of phase 2 in USA significantly derisk commerzialisation. Heimdal
Dougie, longer term HK$1-2. I think next target will be 22c, then 25c, 30c and about 36c by end of 2021. Heimdal
Thanks Bignose, always appreciate your comments as a major holder. The 2016 spike was a very interesting event leading to a fair bit of speculation. WRT listing rule 13.24, this is clearly something we need to keep an eye on. Webb-Site Reports is a good source of information, a bit quiet recently though generated by David's health issues.
575 BUY depth looking quite solid with about 5m in total from 19 - 20c on close. Looks like the punters are back after the successful inauguration of Joe Biden. Happy with the close above 20c. The share price can move very quickly, remember end of January last year where the share price doubled (from intraday low of 10c to intraday highh of 20c) in two days on no news..
Heimdal
David Webb's Webb-Site Reports are always worth reading. In NOV 2018 he mentioned 41 endangered stocks
https://webb-site.com/articles/patients.asp . Just checking a few of them this morning and they are still trading which is clearly positive.
Another in depth article about the new listing rules here - https://webb-site.com/articles/adverseopinion.asp
Squeeze-outs
For some controlling shareholders, the prospect of a mandatory suspension and delisting would be music to their ears. It would put them in a position to buy out the minority shareholders, now deprived of a market for their shares and the disclosures required by the Listing Rules, at a knock-down price. The controller would avoid the normal delisting approvals needed under Rule 2.2 of the Takeovers Code, even if the company is still regarded as a "public company" by the SFC.
HKEX's conflict of interest
Finally, let's not ignore the financial interest that HKEX has in these proposals. It makes the vast majority of its monopolistic profit on the trading, clearing and settlement fees of larger listed companies in HK and the derivatives linked to them. From HKEX's perspective, small troubled companies are loss-makers, because they consume a disproportionate amount of regulatory staff-hours relative to the overall fees they generate. Ranked by size, on the Main Board at the end of September, 344 companies (18% of 1881) accounted for 90% of the market value. Including GEM and Secondary listings, 362 companies (16% of 2268) accounted for 90% of the market value. Their proportion of turnover and transaction fees is even greater than 90% because the market-value figure includes many large H-share issuers, most of which have nearly 100% free float (the mainland A-shares not being counted towards market value).
The regulatory staff-hours consumed by small companies in financial or other difficulties can be dispensed with if they are quickly delisted rather than rehabilitated, thereby boosting profits for HKEX and its shareholders, including the Government. Put simply, it is cheaper to kill the patients than to cure them.
BTW: BUY depth looking good this morning and we are back at 20c, I really hope we can hold the line and move up from here.
Heimdal
You might be right Keith. However I did have high hopes for a re-rating (or at least a massive spike like the 2016 launch in England) on the back of the HK launch news. Maybe the headline wording was wrong, market update.. With 2,538 listed companies and abundant announcements every day you need a more hard hitting headline to grab the punters attention.
My understanding is that this is a general rule for all listed companies where you have to demonstrate you have "sufficient level of operations and have assets of sufficient value to warrant its continuing listing". Back in 2012 we had US$145m in cash and listed sec, now we are running on fumes. I have noted a few companies being pulled up by HKSE for this during the last year or so where there was no mention of reverse take overs. One recent example 1102, China Candy might have been another - will need to check. At the end of the day we will have to generate some cash flow so Recordati will need to get on with it, not sure why the drag the chain on the OTC launch. A potential US partner might also look towards the EU for fairdinkum sales figures. Heimdal
Regent Pacific has a long history on the HKSE and it has been tough going since the company issued the 13c special dividend in early 2013 which was a major mistake. Profit warning after profit warning. We are still trading at historical lows (1.96c on pre con scale!) Maybe HK investors want to see positive sales figures from Europe? A major worry is if the exchange enforce Listing Rule 13.24, then we could be in real trouble. For now it looks like we are in the hands of the pip traders. We might need to generate serious cash flow to attract more serious long term investors. A lot of blue sky but Recordati will also need to hit it hard this year to get things moving. Heimdal
Bignose, if the share market was that predictable we would all be pip traders lol
Back at 19.5c, unbelievable.
Heimdal
Indeed, excellent news Dougie, re-rating overdue now!
Heimdal
You are right Italian, it appears to be a relatively minor pip trader, selling 1m blocks at 20c and buying 1m blocks back at 19c. SP bounced yesterday at the SMA(20) line and finished below the upper Bollinger band at 19.5c. The SP trend is upward, not in a straight line though lol
We must be due for an update on the OTC roll out progress in Europe soon, and possibly some news from the DLI front.
I am a bit puzzled as to why the company did not yet communicate to the market the roll out in Germany which IMO is SP price sensitive information - https://www.shop-apotheke.com/arzneimittel/16829031/fortacin-150-mg-ml-50-mg-ml.htm
Heimdal
Not sure about the 1.47m off screen sell but I did notice a number of 1m sell orders by Instinet in the Sell queue, first at 20.1c and then later at 20c. As soon as the 1m sell order was filled a new popped up automatically spooking the punters. Instinet back today with a 1m sell order sitting at 20c all day.
Morning Bignose, Instinet is NY based and the holder might expect short term market volatility given the political situation in the US. Current 575 sell depth is very thin, only obstacle is Instinet.
WRT US market research by Regent I think it is a smart inexpensive exercise - money well spent.