Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Morning GK, I think you are right. I see no evidence of warrant selling today. Overhang probably completely gone! Share price can only really go one way... Let's get back to 4p asap. Then we will all feel a little bit better.
Markets are bearish on the US dollar for 2018. See Bloomberg news today. This is another positive for commodities and small cap miners. Rising inflation, US dollar weakness. The perfect macro backdrop for THR!
I've updated my Kapunda model based on the new resource. New assumptions: 5,000 tonnes/yr copper production, copper price US$6,800/tonne, total cash cost US$2,720/tonne, life of mine 23 years, capex US$35m. This gives me a NPV of US$172m (@ 7.5% discount rate). Thor own 45% so economic interest US$78m. Note this nothing more than a back of the envelope estimate. Given the market cap of Thor is only �17m (US$24m), the value of Kapunda is US$78m, and we get Molyhill, Pilot Mountain, US Lithium, and some cash thrown in for good measure, is this not one of the most undervalued small cap mining companies in the world? Free money is being handed to us on a plate.
There are still several catalysts for the share price coming up: US Lithium update, revised DFS for Molyhill, possible stakebuilding by MTR, etc. I'm sure the next press release is just round the corner. The mining assets are good, projects are being progressed, and this company has no risk of running out of money in 2018. Some comparisons have been made to Greatland Gold. Greatland Gold has nothing as far as I can tell in terms of assets. THR a far better bet.
Seriously? Do I really have to educate people here? On copper grades - see below example ISR operations that work perfectly well and make good margins. San Miguel / BHP - 284MT @ 0.52% Cu, 10 years+ production Globe / BHP - 214MT @ 0.31% Cu, 20 years + production Florence / Taseko - 429MT @ 0.33% Cu, positive feasibility study Excelsior Mining - 782 MT @ 0.29% Cu, positive feasibility study Kapunda grade 0.25% Cu is fine. A smaller operation than BHP but it will work. Get educated guys. This is boring.
A good tweet by Paul Johnson, Director of Thor Mining - "Don't be phased by malevolent posters bashing your investments - hold where justified - they won't apologise for making you miss a fortune." Note the phrase "making you miss a fortune". Clearly he see's a lot of value here. Yesterday was just a warrant holder dumping shares on the market. They are gone. Share price will recover. The bravest amongst us will make a very good profit.
My contact in the City told me today that 6m shares of Thor were sold very badly. That is why the share price was smashed up. A forced seller. This distressed seller has apparently gone, so we should regain lost ground over the coming days. Market makers are looking to go long in the stock, and will then let the share price run and make a tidy profit in the process. Hold on to your hats!
If MTR buy more shares in THR they will have to announce in the next day or so. Share price always seems to perform well after this type of announcement. The smart money will stay long and accumulate more at these prices. No one expected someone to dump shares early this morning on the back of good news. Very bad selling (unless you are short!). Play the long game. Wait for the warrant overhang to be cleared and then the shares will trade up.
My understanding is that there is a large short position being run on this stock, and they are trying to close out their short position by getting investors to exercise their warrants as sell shares. Hence the high volumes. Eventually the supply of warrants will end and then the price will trade up. Watch carefully over the next few days.
Volumes are high. Someone is hoovering up a lot of shares at low prices and the price is ticking up again. Warrant overhang is not that large (another 12m to clear). This will be gone by the end of the trading day. Shares will trade up as the long term investors accumulate over the coming days. Still super cheap based on NPV. You can't argue with this fact.
Short term traders trying to keep the price down. Probably to get more stock at depressed prices. Hang in there. I'm sure THR will recover during the trading day (like it always does). THR has a stronger investment case after today's news.
This is a leaching operation, not an underground mine. So grade is fine in this case. Check out the comparable companies... ASX not relevant as everyone in Hong Kong who trades this stock on Chinese New Year holiday.