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Full article on gkp47 recent link, scroll down to 'Whats Behind The Crash in Crude'

Let us start outlining what is not causing the decline in oil prices. The trade war between the US and China would not affect China’s thirst for oil and therefore it wouldn’t affect the global demand for oil. China’s oil imports have accelerated very significantly in the last quarter of 2018 averaging more than 10 million barrels a day (mbd) and projected to even hit 11 mbd.

The fundamentals of the global economy are still robust and also projected to be as robust in 2019 albeit growing at 3.8% instead of 3.9% as was the case in 2018.

The OPEC+ production cuts will be implemented in January 2019 and as in the previous cuts they will take a few months before their full impact becomes evident.

Based on the above, I can single out two very important factors that have contributed recently to the oil price slump. The first is the realization by the global oil market that US sanctions have failed completely so far to cost Iran a single barrel of oil and consequently the risk of supply shortage has not materialized despite claims by the overwhelming majority of analysts and investment bankers that Iran will lose 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 1.5 mbd. Moreover, Iranian President Rouhani confirmed a few days ago that Iranian oil exports have actually improved despite the sanctions. The confirmation of Iran’s Central Bank that Iran’s revenues from crude oil and oil products surged by 55% between March and October this year compared to the same period of the previous year is another evidence that US sanctions are doomed to fail miserably. Furthermore, renewing the US sanction waivers in May 2019 or ending them is irrelevant to the global oil market and prices. Still there is a big possibility that waivers will be extended if only to be used as a fig leaf by the Trump administration to cover the failure of their zero option and the whole US sanctions against Iran at large.

The second factor is US manipulation of global oil prices by falsified claims about rising US oil production and significant build-up in US crude and products inventories and hiking the value of the US dollar.

2019 will see more hype about US oil production and more falsification of facts claiming that US oil production will average 12.1 mbd in 2019.

The EIA has been telling us throughout 2018 that US oil production will average 11.7 mbd but now they are saying that it will average 10.9 mbd, some 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) than their original claim.

Moreover, the EIA figure of 11.7 mbd is overstated by at least 3 mbd made up of 2 mbd of NGLs which come from natural gas wells and include such things as ethane, propane, butane and pentanes and 1 mbd of ethanol. These may not qualify as crude oil. In fact, major exchanges accept neither natural gas plant liquids nor lease condensates or ethanol as satisfactory delivery for crude oil. And if major exchanges don’t accept them as crude oil, then they are not crude oil. Therefore, US oil production couldn’t have been bigg

So despite all the recent news and small climbs and retraces its now freefall, quickest in history I suspect. Driven totally by mass shorting, nothing to do with the true state of inventories, supply or demand. Insatiable greed, I do hope this TWitching thing is real because my botty is doing some TWitching. You can bet whoever is doing this is also in on some of the oilies, have a great xmas you ######r hedge funds, go order some long positions from santa.

I thought 34p was cheap, sadly no spare cash left now, Christ look at PMO, what a joke.

I totally agree with you Kraken, take the floor for the daily $2 2 step.

Legalised con, and this is now the normal way of life on the MAIN market. Disgraceful.

Last night Andy Hall the oil guru was saying the API and EIA reports are somewhat flawed and inaccurate as we all suspected anyway. Apparently the Chinese are stockpiling while its cheap, seems we are not alone with the tanker watching. He stated its not a good time to go short on oil. FA going to happen this week I reckon so lets hope the tide turns in the new year.

Forgot to mention opec+ cuts kicking in, inventory draws and despite any dreams pundits have on demand for oil in the future we all know it will keep increasing year on year no matter what unless there is an extinction event that decreases the global population.

Indeed WTF, oil is steady-ish, 70k bpd projected for 2019, sp bears no relation to anything. Repeat WTF!!

I agree Squif, I think back to proper trading floors and ban borrowing shares/futures is what is needed, but we all know that will never happen, geese and golden eggs etc, I am convinced that this style of greed trading will eventually collapse the financial system globally, I feel the the cracks are already starting to form.

Maybe they have lots shorting mates, poo doing the $2 dollar two-step for the last 2 weeks despite opec + inventory draws. Work it up and down twice a day with algobots and pocket your 5% on a daily basis because you didn't get your $50pb on your original short position. This is not a market, just betting and making it go your way. Hopefully by the end of the year they will be happy and p88s off or take up some longs.

Looking at poo for the last hour it looks like the shortabots are not sure what to do.

Booooooooooooooring!! BMR Mark II coming right up, get on board and get screwed before you miss out!!

Its all bull**** watch what they conjure up next week and onwards now opec is cutting back production.

Earthquakes in Heart of Texas Oil Country Spur Water Crackdown
By Ryan Collins and David Wethe
?December? ?5?, ?2018? ?10?:?38? ?PM? ?GMT

wouldn't be absolute manipulation and corruption would it by chance. You can't make it up.However I was once reliably informed by a government body that short selling was good for the market and provides liquidity. My question to them was how can advertising your massive short position in a daily paper be legit when it weighs the share price in the direction you want it to go? Joe blogs short = total gamble. Big boy short = dead cert.

Be honest there is only one thing that's about to drop, guess what that might be.

Knowing my luck its sunk lol.

Found an article called 'what the oil short sellers and opec don't know about peak shale' on 'opec news now' interesting read.

Just watching the algobots at play on live charts, getting their daily $2 fix.