We don't know what we don't know....but they knew what they needed to know to get the timing a whole lot better. And they should have.
Rant over. We are where we are.
We have the runway to take us beyond the next planned drill (C-1V). The FO has provided the ammunition to drill and test 420mm bbls of resource (nett to 88E) at no cost, in that C-1V well.. Not sure how much of that 420 mm bbls we can convert to 1P(PUD) after a (hopefully) successful C-1V. But whatever than number is could be valued from USD1.30 to 3.00 per bbl based on OSH/Armstriong transactions. Which could be very significant...even if it is spread over a 7.4b SOI fully diluted base. .
The way forward is that way.
All IMO and GLTA.
Don't think they had the bandwidth to raise much more than this without going to shareholders and therefore potentially raising at an even lower price. And it doesn't appear that they had anything else sufficiently developed to spend it on anyway. So I think it is just funds for opex, and contingency. Noting that opex is much more than just salaries. Lease payments for Alaskan land as well as furthering Winx, YG and HRZ would be included.
Like Spiney said elsewhere, not sure why anyone would be surprised at a CR. We explore with equity (or asset sale) and can only raise debt for development (which requires a proven discovery prior). We needed the cash, as everyone reading the last 4C could clearly see. How much? Given no other 'projects' seemingly ready for investment, I guess that is determined by the worst case scenario options (post next drill) that the BoD is insuring for. All very prudent and hard to argue against.
Yet I feel very frustrated by how this has played out. I don't fault the BoD for geological results in the past. Nor do i fault them for the decison to go back to IW2....because sooner or later we needed to find out what the true scope of the HRZ vo/wc fairway was. I do however, have questions about the timing of some of their decisions....and particularly those where they had the information to time their decisions better. The current CR being a classic case.
Blind freddy (let alone the one eyed supporters amongst us) could see from the last 4C that a cash raise was needed sooner rather than later. At that time, we (the punters) could see that an FO had been agreed but not yet executed and we had no insight into how that would affect cash balances. We then had the FO details announced and could see that while the deal was a very good one (IMO) it did not help the parlous cash position. Then we had an Investor Presentation released into a vacuum, and we all remember what that meant in the past. Apart from the CR signalling interpretation, it also highlighted no drilling activities in 2020 other than C-1V. Not great for a share with limited fundamental value support and heavily dependent on near to mid term speculative sentiment. Hence the SP at 1.4c and the raise at 1.25c. These are all comments based on the rear-view mirror. But the BoD were looking out of the windshield and it confounds me why they didn't raise in July (after deal 'approved' but not signed, and before 4C released). If memory serves me correctly, we hit and held SP levels at least 30% higher than today. Which means that we could have issued 30% less shares in this placement or raised 30% more.
I have no problems handing out bouquets (and associated rewards) to management and the BoD when earned. But surely that means we should also serve metaphorical brickbats when deserved. As said earlier, despite adverse geological results, I am comfortable with many earlier BoD decisions and have said so. But getting the timing right on this CR has been a big fai
Just heard the section on Alaska from the Premier Oil webcast and they seem very excited about the prospect. In their own words, the drill will be an 'appraisal' drill as BP hit 250 feet of oil in 1991. It is simply a case of testing whether it will flow. They continued to say if the test is successful they will come back the following year with a horizontal? well which if successful would lead to development.
Quite simply no one knows as no private investor on these boards will have had any experience negotiating contracts in such a situation. Therefore there is nothing to add other than gut feel which doesn't translate to fact. Therefore we see left with those who are either long or short spouting nonsense every ten seconds whether a bit a million share transaction was a buy or sell as if it is a clue as to what decisions are being made. It is interesting to see those who are starting to crack and those who remain calm. Can't be too long now until we know our fate
Guys and gals the usual suspects are working overtime today as they know time is running out before the next announcement. As hard as it is, try not to rise to their wind up routines. They know no more than you or I. It's Friday, the general market is subdued and the spread is being played with. As usual, nothing has changed apart from certain people playing with other people's emotions. Good luck as always and not too much longer to wait
Guz I'm amazed you still bother to comment on this share. You seem to have been taken in by a few and now look to find any opportunity to provide your so called 'balanced' perspective. I think if you were to look through all your recent 88e posts they are all negative in sentiment which is perfectly fine but by no means 'balanced'. By trying to save everyone from the evils of aim (which is what I assume you feel your are doing) you simply come across bitter and troll like which I don't believe is your intention but I am starting to wonder given how even you are still down on this share after we have been given the all clear. Yes terms are to be made clear but the big question has been answered. We will be able to continue as an operation and we will know sooner rather than later if your acreage does in fact contain oil. That is what I signed up for and am happy to take a punt, eyes wide open.
Hope you have recouped some of your losses. As is the case with most here, I'm nursing a substantial paper loss but actually feel fairly optimistic. All the best
Just had a quick scan of your posts. 3 topics jump out: need for a raise, no farm out and we've all been lied to. Great contributions
Pretty self explanatory to anyone with half a brain. Guess it's that time to buckle down as they are coming out of the woodwork.
Good luck all
Agreed Waussie, it's getting a bit old with the asx dragging the lse down. As soon as the lse makes a gain asx follows but always falls a little short and those daily sells at the end of the day put a firm brake on the share price and within a few days we start dropping. It's hard to not track the share everyday due to the significance of the farmout but is becoming tedious to say the least. Maybe one day we'll get something that goes our way. Good luck as always
Out of interest, what made you buy in the first place as those factors you state have been known for quite some time. Of course I disagree with regards to the negotiating position but aside from selling on a mini spike I fail to see what would cause a sudden change of heart? All the best though and understand it has been a long and tough wait and for some, time has run out.
Any other possible negatives? Think you used the derampers guide all in one post! Thankfully I don't think anyone takes any notice of your opinions or those who constantly spout doom and gloom. Aim deramper 101: possible placing, potential news could be bad, share price could fall, share consolidation. Rinse and repeat...zzzz
Ps, the above is purely for the benefit of newbies as we were all there at one time.
Back in my box :)