Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
On 16th June I doubted what THG said: "While THG is clearly aware of the macro-economic challenges, the Company continues to perform well, and in line with its own expectations" purely based on macro economics mentioning that the SP still has a lot to fall and I got ripped to oblivion. SP was 75p then.
14th July again mentioned there is no shame in selling now and buying back later knowing that macro economics is still weighing down on the share, again I got ripped to shreds. SP was 71p then.
27th July THG's SP was falling further due to macro economics and even then I advised people to sell up because the SP has further to fall. I got gunned down as usual especially by someone named "Notsofastyou" who refused to remotely accept what I was saying. SP was 66p then.
Every time I said this I was receiving replies back calling me a deramper, hindsight is a wonderful thing etc. All I said in return was "ummm are you blind?" Can you not see all the financial issues around you happening to everyone? Apparently the only comeback was that THG offers protein shakes and make up and regardless of recession, people will still buy them.
Well take your head out your ass and look at what's happened today!
Today on 15th September, it may be your day because I'm not telling you to sell but instead it might be worth start building a position! Guess what? At circa 40p. That's a 47% drop since I told people to sell.
GLA especially you Notsofastyou
Notsofastyou - are you blind? How is anything that I am saying based on "emotional thinking" and not fact?
Is inflation not a problem?
Is cost of living not a problem?
Is there not a chance of a recession?
Are interest rates not rising?
Are you not reading the news about people struggling to feed their families and not using as much gas or electricity as before?
Are fuel prices not at historic record highs?
On the other hand you're just "hoping" the SP for THG raises and the only justification you have is because it tanked so much that it must go up....who is posting based on emotional thinking now?
I'm not saying I'm going to be right forever because external market conditions will improve and then that is the time to buy.
There is definitely value to be found with THG but not right now.
Sentiment & external market conditions will mean the SP will keep falling over the short term.
Over the last few months I told others that there is no shame in selling and buying back at a cheaper price. It's called using some common sense and looking at your surroundings.
I'm not really sure why Lord Allen bought at the time he did with nearly a 25% paper loss currently, he will definitely make his money back but had he waited he would have made even more money over a shorter time horizon.
Not being a know it all but I called it last month when I mentioned after reading that questionable RNS, BOD will remain silent and the SP will go down gradually because of the lack of strategic update and the wider macro economic environment. So far this has been the case.
@APH01 - Same, called it a month ago that the share price will reach 60 and maybe dip into the 50's over the next few months.
People need to learn to sell and buy back and no this is not gambling, this is called using common sense and looking at what's around you.
Seen this before.
Watch the share price drop at least for the short term because investors are nervous about the spin off and don't fully understand / trust what the BOD are saying. The BOD will also keep quiet now with no RNS updates and overtime the SP will erode.
I predict SP to drop to 5p but over the long run (who knows how long!) the SP should increase back up.
Finderskeepers23 - I'm not doubting the Myprotein brand. I'm doubting THG saying that they can trade as normal in current climate.
In the face of inflation, hand on heart do you honestly feel people have the same amount of disposable income to buy protein powder and make up? It cost me nearly £90 to fill up a tank the other day. 6 months back, I could have filled a tank and bought a 5kg bag of protein shake for the same amount of money. Are you are saying these goods are staple household items (news to me)?
Even IF trade continues as expected, why the heavy enthusiast on just trade i.e turnover and not profits? With costs spiralling left right and centre I will be very surprised if they can maintain guidance profit levels. I don't really care if sales reach 100 billion if bottom line profit is a massive loss for the wrong reasons.
"While THG is clearly aware of the macro-economic challenges, the Company continues to perform well, and in line with its own expectations."
Any investor worth their two pence will have some idea of what the UK economy is currently facing. If 99% of all other retailers out there are struggling due to macro-economic challenges, what makes THG so different that it's immune to this and can continue to trade as expected?
With the price of fuel being sky high, just logistic costs (which is a major cost to THG) will rip a new hole in their financials.
The SP will tank to 60's, potentially 50's in the coming months.
Before anyone calls me a de-ramper, can your reply please include an answer to my question above - what makes THG so different that it's immune to the macro challenges faced by all retailers and continue to trade as expected?
Just playing devils regarding point number 1
1. Softbank do not take up the option!
Already completely priced in and then some!!! (as ste2000 said over $1 billion already banked at £5.96 ;)
When you say it is completely priced in, how do you know? We thought that at £2, £1.50, £1 and now at 90p.
I'm still going to say unless something very positive happens, this share will continue to be held down and unfortunately even dare say if Softbank doesn't take up on the option the SP will plummet.
The next big event to look out for is the annual report / presentation - getting quite nervous about this one because it can literally go either way.
PS: THG is one of my largest holdings at £2 average.
You realise what you are saying right?
From £500k to £3m- £4m that is a 6 to 8 multiplier. That's an SP of £5.40 to £7.20 using 90p as the basis.
As much as I would like it to, that isn't happening in "double quick time".
In the short term within the next 12 months I can see this popping up to £2 max and from there it will depend on how the company performs.
There is definitely a risk reward disparity but I don't think it's as big as some people make it out to be.
I say if you buy now, you would quite comfortably double your investment in the next 12 to 18 months - £1.80 is a very achievable SP.
Shame I'm so underwater I just cannot bring myself to averaging down.
GLA
Leaving due to family reasons? Maybe, maybe not.
Tiffany is also a non exec for B&M and I can't the same RNS over there.
https://www.ft.com/content/6a9e13c6-d7eb-4b98-8c7b-8695a8210190
She purchased around 33,557 shares at 596p, with an aggregate worth of £200,000.
@Olderandwiser - there is no one place to read about this share but luckily most of the action happened in the last 12 months so a quick google will tell you everything you need to know about this company and what happened to cause it to lose nearly 90% of its value.
One piece of advice I give you is to ignore the views of everyone else and to make up your own - people have been saying this share is super cheap so many times in the last 6 months and gotten it wrong (myself included and currently at a 55% loss but holding firmly).
Unfortunately support and resistance levels doesn't mean a lot for a share with little trade volume and negative market sentiment.
Hitting 90p at the end of the day doesn't put you in a safe position going forward - in fact because of such a large jump today, I think we will probably have a red day tomorrow.
To get out of something like this you need news be it frequent good news or a one off banger.
This will increase trade volume and tip the buy sell scale in our favour.
Hold tight - LTH @ £2 average
GLA