Member Info for haggis_trap

Having previously made deliberate point of kitchen sinking all the bad news the company (Maris et al) are now unable / unwilling to promote future prospects. The sandstone reserves are now clearly replenishing fractured basement. But without additional well estimating extent of that hard to estimate

P2593 is the Spark exploration license (whom they just acquired). This is located immediately north of Hurricane on Rona ridge. No idea if Viaro applied for the blocks Hurricane recently relinquished (Halifax, Lincoln etc) : however that would be big clue they were aspiring to build West of Shetland hub.

> the license’s that Viaro have bid for are these the same ones Hurricane relinquished

That is a legitimate and interesting question. I am not sure which licenses Viaro may have bid for...
Viaro's existing West of Shetland operations are currently held under the RockRose subsidiary.
Though these are further north at Laggan Tormore.

https://www.rockroseenergy.com/operations/west-of-shetland/

> Haggis is a financial genius.....

Is that were true I wouldn't be suffering here.
Fingers crossed for all LTH we get some good news soon!
We all deserve it.

Viaro RTO (reverse take over) to obtain a listing could be perfect outcome:

1) No issue transfering tax credits
2) Can drill Lancaster without risk of it being single producer in portfolio
3) Those who see future growth could likely remain invested

Viaro just taken over Spark energy (who own fractured basement exploration prospect immediately north of Halifax).
Seems like too much of a coincidence to me....
P6 of this old presentation (2019) explains the link.
https://sparkexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/APPEX-2020-Spark-Exploration.pdf

More info :
https://www.offshore-mag.com/business-briefs/company-news/article/14290461/viaro-reaches-deal-to-acquire-spark-west-of-shetland-interests

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/486775/viaro-energy-spark-exploration-west-of-shetland/

^ That is *very* interesting...

Spark were an Australian company who own exploration prospects on Rona Ridge between Lancaster and Clair.
Small outfit set up specifically to explore fractured basement on the "bader" prospect north of Lancaster.
This presentation even mentions Hurricane's success on Lancaster as something they aspired to replicate.

If Viario have just taken over Spark (and presumably plan to explore fractured basement) then they will certainly be sniffing about Hurricane. I think we have a deal ?

https://sparkexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/APPEX-2020-Spark-Exploration.pdf

Viaro at ‘very advanced stage’ of deal for ‘large’ North Sea production assets
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/487051/viaro-production-assets-north-sea/

“We have a large amount of cash on the balance sheet, and we want to spend it – West of Shetland is a good area to invest and develop. Soon we will release our audit reports, and there will be no dividends paid out, and our strategy is not to pay any for the next couple of years at least.

I am getting impatient...
However 2 things make me think something is cooking:
a) CA not requisitioned another general meeting. So clearly they are happy.
b) Board have yet formally proposed capital return / 3.1p dividend despite having new legal power to do so.

Every morning I get up hoping for RNS bringing news that takeover / FSP has finally completed. Every morning I am disappointed... The HUR nightmare drags on one day longer

Can Maris do anything that adds value for shareholders? His reign been one of negativity and value destruction at every opportunity.

Trice had his flaws. However he never tried to give company away for free. Current BoD have talked down prospects at every opportunity... Now they wonder why they can't sell at market value.

Having marched troops up hill CA most certainly need to make a statement Monday

My current guess is someone (kistos?) wants to buy HUR and make use of the tax credits. But they can only afford ~7.7p. Therefore to sweeten deal the dividend of 3.1p will be announced at the same time.

Pure speculation - however something is going to have to give soon. Either a bid materialises or CA request general meeting to remove Maris.

RNS leaves us none the wiser.

Reading between lines:
1) CA and HUR at loggerheads over capital repayment
Or....
2) 3.1p payment will be announced in conjunction with sale at lower price of 7.7p

Should all come out in wash soon assuming CA stick to their self imposed 6th Feb deadline for requesting GM to sack the board.

> Why would you deter investment in our own Uk and north sea waters?

Which other industry in UK is (retrospectively) taxed at 80% ?
In post Brexit Britain the Tories would rather the investment and jobs goes overseas rather than Scotland.

> How does the WFT impact production?

The windfall tax is a total pig in a poke:
a) without government stealing profit (retrospectively) Kistos share price would be at £10-20
b) pricing future deals is impossible given uncertainty
c) exploration in UK has become economically unattractive option

absolutely no doubt Kistos have better management team!

Above comparison would suggest ~16p fair value for HUR?
Though I would expect a sale to conclude at 12-14p.

Decent RNS. However, as of yesterday, I am out for now. Been a great ride for me (£1.40 to £4.15). Still believe in AA and Kistos. However short term challenges remain:

- Dutch TTF at lowest level for 16 months.
- Shortly moving into spring and lower demand for gas.
- Production eventually needs replaced.
- Challenging environment to do deals
- Windfall tax

Maybe I will regret this. Deciding when to sell a share much harder than deciding when to buy. If price drops can certainly see me returning in late spring / summer.