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The shareholders (Africa Oil and Hosken Consolidated Investments, 81% together) in Impact make a deal with Total about the two blocks they have where, among other things, the Venus discovery is made.
Impact receives 99 MUSD for previously incurred costs and is financially supported by the development of the oil fields. These costs are then deducted after production starts. Impact chooses to believe in revenue from production, rather than selling oil in the ground, now.
Also important for Eco: Total shows with its cash payment that it has data that makes it want to invest fully in the Orange basin. The agreement thus takes a decisive step to a new level of development in the Orange basin, something that benefits companies with interests there.
Part of the article:
"Galp stated this morning in an operations update that results to date from Mopane-1X indicate “preliminary signs of hydrocarbon presence”.
However, the company stressed that with drilling and data acquisition campaigns still underway, it is "premature" to make any conclusion until operations have been completed and results assessed.
Galp’s share price was up 1.8% in early morning trading on Euronext in Lisbon, at €13.58 ($14.34).
The probe is being drilled by semi-submersible rig Hercules in Block 2813A, some 14 kilometres north of the boundary with Shell’s acreage, and 30 kilometres from the supermajor’s unsuccessful, high-risk Cullinan-1 probe which was targeting a carbonate structure.
Victoria Sibeya, Namcor’s head of upstream exploration, told Upstream in October that Galp is not targeting carbonates but is going after “Upper Cretaceous plays… that have already been proven in (Shell’s) Graff-1X discovery”.
Galp has an 80% stake in PEL 83 and is partnered by local player Custos Energy and state oil company Namcor, each with 10% interests."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/new-namibia-exploration-well-finds-signs-of-oil-and-gas/2-1-1577753
The short summary of the climate meeting seems to be that it must be the supply side of the market and the price of green technology that must determine the speed of the transition. Not the supply side of oil. In addition, the transition must be "fair", something that adjusts the way for different supply in the third world. IMHO.
The issue of taxation in the stock market goes away soon, but a notification about an environmental permit for 3B / 4B will soon arrive. Then we have the interest of the three new players in the concession to be materialized.
I like the increasing volume, in London too. :-)
H1 2024. :-)
We will have at least one, maybe two, farmouts during H1. Check backward in the chart for having a hint on the valuation when the farm out is a fact.
So differently one can comment on a possible farmout agreement at the end of Q1. :-)
The rating of Eco can go from
uncertainty about possible farmout to probability of farmout time until the end of Q1.
After an agreement, the valuation can be adjusted according to the likely time for drilling.
For ECO, the joker will be if they also make an agreement in Guyana.
Sees opportunity for big moves from today's levels during H1 -25.
Did not see previous posts. Sorry.
Part of the article:
"“We have had significant discussions with one major already on that block,” Tucker told investors on 16 November, and had hoped to wrap up a deal — which would likely involve drilling two exploration wells — sooner rather than later.
However, he pointed out that now, because “three other majors have asked to come into” the data room, finalisation of a farm out agreement will take a bit more time”.
“The (deal) is going to take a little bit longer. But I think it’s worth standing on the sidelines and not leaping at the first opportunity, because there has been this sudden uptick in the level of interest in the block,” he said.
Tucker said he wants to give these late arriving majors the time needed to study what is on offer in the data room, before a decision is made and a deal wrapped up.
He reckons an agreement could be clinched “towards the end of the first quarter” of 2024.
Tucker did not name the interested parties, but it is thought they include Shell and TotalEnergies – who already operate acreage elsewhere in South Africa’s Orange basin – would be keen to assess the potential of Block 3B/4B."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/three-majors-in-last-minute-dash-to-enter-race-for-slice-of-orange-basin-hot-spot/2-1-1561042?fbclid=IwAR0VhZYbuxi5xpUF8zMosuWEcly8lxzC-5VQGklfbgIkpTVFO66gA3sjhDc
Part of the article:
"TotalEnergies’ Mangetti-1X exploration well in Namibia’s prolific Orange basin will also appraise the supermajor’s Venus oil discovery in Block 2913B, confirming an earlier report by Upstream.
Once this well has been completed, the supermajor might target a prospect further north before turning its attention to the southern part of the block where a 3D seismic shoot is due to kick off early next year.
TotalEnergies completes critical flow tests on huge Namibian discovery
Read more
Looking even further ahead, the French operator may eventually return to adjacent Block 2912 where the Nara-1X probe was said to be “dry” by TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne, but did in fact hit hydrocarbons.
Roger Tucker, chief executive of Africa Oil — a listed company with an indirect 6.2% stake in the two blocks through its 31.1% ownership of Impact Oil & Gas — said the exploration target for Mangetti-1X is a “higher fan than was encountered” at Venus, but stressed the well would also drill deeper to target the northern extension of Venus.
He suggested Mangetti will likely go through both objectives between mid-December and the end of this year, but cautioned that results might only be released by the operator during its February capital markets day.
Once this well has been completed by the Tungsten Explorer drillship, a new probe could be drilled in the northern part of the block, Pouyanne recently said.
At the same time, Tucker told analysts late last week that additional 3D seismic would be acquired over the southern part of 2913B to cover the promising Damara and South Damara structures.
“It looks extremely attractive, and the 3D will be shot in the early part of 2024.”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/totalenergies-latest-namibia-exploration-probe-targets-two-reservoirs/2-1-1559827?fbclid=IwAR1VmvkH7Ls2stbL6u9qhr394lKT6XRSfKesL2iqPgeBWpDyCS8NZsY2wvY
Part of the article:
"Africa Oil — which has an indirect 6% stake in Venus through part ownership of Impact Oil & Gas — said that results from Venus-1X are 'expected to be confirmed by the Venus-1A drill stem test [DST] programme'. "
......
"An earlier production test on the Venus-1X discovery well met expectations, so the clear hope among partners — which also include QatarEnergy and state oil company Namcor — is that these results will be matched by Venus-1A.
One knowledgeable source last week said that “big” flares had been reported at the Deepsea Mira.
This was confirmed by Africa Oil’s recently appointed chief executive Roger Tucker, who said there were “major flares” at the well location.
These flares, he explained, disappeared and reappeared on satellite images as TotalEnergies switched the flow of hydrocarbons off and on to assess pressure build-up in the reservoirs.
“So, we’ve tested hydrocarbons to surface at the Venus appraisal well,” Tucker told analysts during the company’s third-quarter conference call late last week.
Upstream understands the flares were visible on about a dozen separate occasions between 9 and 12 November.
Tucker said: “We would expect to see results in the next couple of weeks.”
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne recently said that Venus is a commercial project and would be developed.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/totalenergies-completes-critical-flow-tests-on-huge-namibian-discovery/2-1-1557001?fbclid=IwAR3BOkLk2z7PAjOoZHgistRZJ7r9ufr4Plk2_z1mQ1ybKYYyVeZi8qGODig
Part of the article:
"Colin Kinley, co-founder and chief operating officer of Eco Atlantic, said: “We have always been very involved with the exploration and interpretation of the block, and our experienced team will step directly into operatorship to finalise target selection.”
Discussing the wider offshore exploration scene in Guyana, he said nearly 10 years of exploration has generated Cretaceous discoveries holding close to 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
“Our team has a good understanding of the Cretaceous play and we have a great deal of confidence in drilling our first well, targeting a stacked pay target in this well- proven horizon.”
Kinley said Eco Atlantic is now looking for partners in this high-value play and has started a formal farm-out process.
“Recent interest from supermajors and other well capitalised energy companies in the latest licencing bid round in Guyana for blocks up-dip of us, supports our thesis of the oil migration and the high quality and charged reservoirs we see on our block,” he argued."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/junior-player-opens-doors-in-partner-hunt-for-tantalising-guyana-block/2-1-1555318?fbclid=IwAR2HTMVYwXgLq6jnaTwCH9Yj6DymvwuLG95q0DSZZWEsBgc-8ySuBZn_Po4
The two triggers I mention depend on when the application for the environmental permit was made and when it can be expected to be completed. The company has cited Q4 as a benchmark.
As for the official announcement of the takeover, we already have an unofficial approval of the Tullow deal which gives us 75% of the concession in Guyana. The original timing was of course determined by when the deal was announced.
So comments about what happened a year ago are embarrassingly out of date.
What about "action"?
When the basic triggers are in place, an accumulated news flow takes place that deals with new settlements and their implementation in the respective concession.
Let's see what this means for the share price development from the levels we have now.
Significant triggers in the near term:
+ Environmental permit for 3B/4B in South Africa. We crossed this threshold last year and with Total's moves we can see the light at the end of the tunnel here.
Understandably crucial for the farm-out process.
+ A formal official approval of ECO's takeover of Tullow's stake in our Guyana block.
A formal prerequisite for the farm-out process there.
My personal opinion, which of course could be wrong, is that a farmout deal of the deep sea blocks in Namibia can wait until after these two farmouts.
These two announcements come without knowledge of when from our company management, as the licensing authorities own the timing.
Thanks for the article, Phoebus. That map carries a message.
It's just the first few sentences that is new in the article. Their sources have been right before, though no guarantee.
"Extraordinarily, according to data from marine intelligence provider VesselsValue, the Jonker-1A appraisal well is being drilled more than 22 kilometres northwest of Jonker-1 probe, which Upstream reported in February this year had made a major discovery."
"The distance between these wells gives a clear indication of the huge areal extent of Jonker and would suggest that Shell wants to move fast to determine the discovery’s maximum extent and push ahead with a probable development in more than 2000 metres of water.
Jonker is currently estimated to hold about 2.5 billion barrels of oil in-place, according to Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which was commissioned by Namcor, Namibia’s state oil company, to piece together a resource assessment of the country’s Orange basin discoveries.
A fast-track, phased development is being planned for this discovery, with first oil possible by 2029-2030."
Part of the article:
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/shell-spuds-critical-orange-basin-appraisal-well-on-2-5-billion-barrel-oil-find/2-1-1509223?fbclid=IwAR0YKT3j8wwKD0E48UOfZJ1MIsYvQ_R0YlL68B0iF874DWmWRE1HpkZ86t4
Thanks, this is, of course, important news. Let's see what path the coming deals will reveal
The strategy of Galp is to "de-risk" the block by two drill holes and after that invite for a farm out. After 40 years in this business there seems to me to be a pattern that states and juniors use mid size independent as partners and that the giants comes in next phase. It's all about getting a fair part of the cake. For all.
A part of the article: "He (CEO of Galp) said Galp has an 80% operating stake in PEL 83 and is also carrying the other partners in the block — state-owned Namcor and local player Custos Energy, each holding 10% interests.
“Clearly, it’s too high an exposure so once we’ve de-risked (the block) we will be inviting a credible party to the table.”
Rumours have been circulating that Italian major Eni has been interested in the Orange basin, but these could not be substantiated.
Galp has chartered Odfjell’ Drilling’s semi-submersible drilling rig Hercules for the two well campaign on PEL 83 which is due to start in the fourth quarter of this year
The rig is currently drilling a probe offshore eastern Canada for ExxonMobil on a prospect called Gale.
This two adds to the picture , from Upstream:
"Shell's purple patch of exploration successes in the Orange basin offshore Namibia has finally come to end after a high-risk exploration probe in the northern part of its acreage failed to find commercial volumes of oil and gas.
The UK-based supermajor had previously hit hydrocarbon sweet spots in this prolific southern African basin with its Graff, La Rona, Jonker and Lesedi discoveries, while also carrying out a successful flow test on Graff.
According to informed well-watchers, Shell's latest exploration well was always perceived as higher risk because it was chasing a different geological play to the other more southerly finds.
Upstream was told that the Cullinan-1X probe was targeting a carbonate structure, thought to extend into Galp Energia's block to the north.
And while the well failed to discover commercial volumes of oil and gas, a Shell spokesperson said the results suggested a working petroleum system could be present.
“The well did not make a discovery. However, we are encouraged to have found indications of a working petroleum system in this previously untested area of our licence.
"The well has been plugged and abandoned and we will now analyse the data gathered before deciding on any follow-up activity."
Namibia's oil riches could have a huge influence on Shell's performance in the years ahead, analysts believe. Photo: Peter Dejong
Shell's spokesperson added: "We continue to see important exploration potential in our licence and to progress our multi-well exploration and appraisal campaign.”
One source familiar with Namibian exploration activities, said that while Cullinan “was disappointing, it would be fair to say this result doesn’t downgrade the value” of Shell’s acreage.
The semi-submersible drilling rig Deepsea Bollsta left the Cullinan well location over the weekend, to drill an appraisal well on one of its earlier discoveries."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/shell-completes-latest-probe-in-exploration-hotspot-namibia-success-or-failure-/2-1-1508504?fbclid=IwAR2LN1BHqZrpFLTMrB2NQg28YnI9cYR5LUd0Jb-3D0hdIb7RQopHU-0dCO8
‘Large and high quality’: Galp chief whets appetite ahead of Namibian drilling effort
First of two exploration probes in Orange basin could spud by end of 2023
1 August 2023 4:00 GMT UPDATED 1 August 2023 8:27 GMT
By Iain Esau in London
Lisbon-based Galp Energia has identified "large and high quality" prospects on a promising block in Namibia's red-hot Orange basin play where it plans to start drilling up to two exploration wells this year.