Prof Tamim25 Jan 2026 08:04
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All hopes will lose steam without a sustainable energy plan
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M. Tamim M. Tamim
By M. Tamim
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While there are signs of improved planning and greater transparency in the power sector, long-term success remains uncertain due to the slow growth of renewable energy and continued reliance on fossil fuels. FILE VISUAL: ANWAR SOHEL
Bangladesh stands at the brink of a major energy crisis, the consequence of decades of emphasis on power generation without securing a sustainable supply of primary energy. As early as 1996, the nation’s energy policy warned against single-fuel dependency on natural gas and recommended developing coal resources in the northwest to diversify supply and serve the energy-starved western region. Yet, despite clear signs of gas shortages by 2007, exploration efforts remained minimal. Since the Bibiyana discovery, the “BAPEX-only” policy has yielded negligible additions to reserves, while production has steadily declined since its peak in 2016–17. Current output from national oil companies and IOCs is about 1,500 mmcfd (70%), supplemented by just over 1,000 mmcfd of LNG imports (30%), against a demand of 4,000 mmcfd. Industries, long reliant on cheap indigenous gas, are now struggling under severe shortages.
The most pressing concern is the decline of Bibiyana, which supplies nearly 40% of total gas. At 18 years old, the field is nearing depletion, and output could collapse within the next few years. Bangladesh lacks the infrastructure to expand LNG imports beyond current capacity, and no new facilities are expected before 2029. Any disruption to the existing FSRUs would have equally devastating consequences.
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No development strategy can succeed without resolving this primary energy crisis. Shortages will intensify after LDC graduation, compounding industrial, financial, and trade challenges. Decades of neglect cannot be reversed overnight: import infrastructure, exploration, fuel switching, and renewable deployment all require time. In the short term, LPG and oil remain the only viable stopgap solutions. The critical task for policymakers is to manage a transition from entrenched usage patterns to more market-based alternatives.
PHOTO: BSS
Sectoral dependency on gas (excluding electricity) is significant: industry 44%, residential 13.5%, commercial 12.7%, and transport 17.7% (SREDA, April 2024). Industry, the largest consumer, is most vulnerable. Although only 13.5% of households rely on piped gas for cooking, these belong to the most privileged groups, and shortages could spark social unrest. In transport, shifting from CNG to petrol or LPG would be relatively painless, while commercial use can be redirected to LPG. Piped gas must be metered and priced at import parity, w