Overview22 Apr 2020 21:06
As ever traders have moved out chasing the next proposed big riser... Risky strategy when you eventually get caught out! Personally I'd rather find a good company with solid fundamentals, aligned Board and in a growth sector. The first two requirements are fairly easy to find, however when you try and pair them with a growth sectorin current global pandemic, most fall by the way side. This is when Open Orphan comes to the fore.
Net assets after years of investment from Woodford fund are many multiples of current market valuation. That's before you factor in the current pandemic which, let's face it, Hvivo was set up to combat with its World leading virologists, World leading facilities including Europe's only 24 bed quarantine facility and associated lab. The importance of these facilities, the expertise and knowledge of carrying out virus studies on individuals, will only be recognised by those who understand and have fully researched this niche.
The collection of eight completed challenge studies are again, totally ignored by the market, however there will again be a huge spike in demand to tap into these models to try and find vaccines and anti virrals for a whole plethora of viruses and diseases to try and unload the burden on health services going forward. Large pharmaceutical companies will be well aware of this and any challenge studies will demand a premium due to demand going forward. Then we move onto the 9th challenge study model which will hopefully be ready over the summer, this will be the clincher and having the World's first and only coronavirus challenge study model along with all the facilities and expertise to compliment this model, brings me to the conclusion that completion of this model will likely lead to the take out of either HVIVO or the group by a major pharmaceutical company so they can ring fence the facilities to complete their own trials.
Then we have a 48% stake in the Flu V vaccine, the best in class universal flu vaccine globally which has been on the shelf for two years due to lack of interest. Now the World's health services are bursting at the scenes and governments will be looking for any virus holting vacancies which may ease the overall burden. It will also help health workers diagnose those with other potential viruses in the future and not confuse them with flu, a fact that would have been absolutely priceless this time around with concensus that testing is key to diagnose either flu or covid 19. The value sat in this vaccine if its fast tracked through phase III is absolutely astonishing considering the current value of Open Orphan. Cathal Friel has been very cautious at associating a value to this lottery ticket, however in recent communications Cathal had dramatically changed his language around this asset, a reflection of the sudden interest in the value of this vaccine if developed. You can research the value of potential vaccines but if this gets to phase III then orph will be dozens of mul
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