Member Info for gordon1237

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SYN/results-of-general-meeting/16335561

Hope so DV.

Muck. That odd those shares were placed in December.

Muck. It didn't. This is for ratification of the warrants attached to that issue and also for a further issue if required.

Carrot. Has a Sharetalk interview been scheduled ?

This get any more depressing ? C'mon Roland how about a bleed*n interview ?

Wwal. What's this interview ?

It feels like it's all some dastardly plot to keep me glued to a screen until I drop off my perch. Lol.

Now. Driving myself nuts continually looking. Going to keep away for a couple of hours.

Good find Conger.

" Company will carry Synergia Energy Ltd. for up to US $10 million for Synergia’s share of

capital spends in the Cambay PSC, through an agreed work programme (“WP”) comprising of

3 new wells including 1 horizontal well and workovers in 3 exiting wells ".

Hopefully that settles the matter. However, as I and others have said the true value is much much greater than thr jv.

Expect to find myself in this position. Thought I'd br deciding whether to get out in the mid 0.2's at least. Could even now get out at break even but it goes against the grain.

It's irrelevant whether it's 10 or 20 million. As I said in my earlier posts the true value is much much higher.

Appreciate that may be very long winded so I will summarise.

I believe that it doesnt really matter how you interpret what Selan are paying as a free carry. That will never reflect the true value of Syn's 50%.

We can get a much better idea of the value from last years presentation.

If everything goes to plan Syn's share of the profits over the life of the contract could be around £100 million.

Even with a pessimistic view of a future number of shares of say 15 billion that could give an sp of at least 0.65p.

So even if that is optimistic and it takes years to get there, surely the price must increase from here ?

Gla.

Wolf, I am not in a muddle. Whatever you think of Conger for selling whilst promoting the deal, his interpretation is correct.

However, moving on from that, the point is that however you interpret what Selan is paying is not the point. That grossly undervalues the asset. Whatever they are paying is going to be much less than it's true value . Otherwise, it wouldn't be worth their while. For example if they expected to make 100 million profit over the life of the contract, they are hardly going to pay any where near that are they ?

So what profit can Syn and the Selan expect to make from their respective halves of the contract. The presentations from last year give an indication. For a 10 well model they give a net present value of 58 million usd. The full field development will be 30+ wells, so a total for that of around 200 million. That is for the base case. If the upside case was in play, or gas prices went up, profits may increase. Also the presentation assumes a cost per well of 10 million, much more than they are saying now.

So even taking a conservative view of the presentation,Syn's half of the profits in present day terms would be 100 million usd.

That would be increased by by an amount equal to the free carry, as that is cash they will not be spending.

So if the free carry is 10 million plus the 2.5 million cash plus the 9 million bonuses ( that should be reduced to present day value, but can be ignored for now) it comes to 21.5 million. Or, as most seem to think, the free carry is 20 million it comes to 31.5 million.

So the total profits Syn can expect over the life of the contract is, depending on how you interpret the free carry either121.5 or 131.5 million usd. That's £97 million or £105 million. Not a great deal of difference.

With the current number of shares of 10.5 billion that would equate to an sp of 0.9 to 1.0 p.

The extra shares from the convertible loan and warrants from the last raise would increase the total shares to around 13 billion. Obviously a further raise would increase it further. That might not be necessary if the warrants are exercised.

With 13 billion shares it would equate to an sp of 0.75 to 0.8p.

With 15 billion shares we get 0.65 to 0.7p.

So even if the profit in the presentation is optimistic it would seem that the current sp of 0.15 is grossly underestimating the potential. The market seems to be taking an extreme worst case scenario.

All the above may be a bit long, but it is genuinely how I see it. It may be a few years before the full value is realised but I really hope the sp today moves towards a more realistic value. If I could get 0.25 today, I would probably sell out as probably not sensible to wait too long at my age.

Good luck all.

Ssccss. Yes that's exactly how I see it. Thank goodness someone gets it.

However, see my long winded analysis and summary below.

Thanks Conger. I was thinking the same, that what they were paying was not 20 million but 10 million for Syn's half of the first year costs. Not being an accountant wasn't sure if I wasn't missing something, so thanks for confirming. Of course that doesn't mean that is what the remaining 50% is worth. No partner would pay that as it wouldn't be worth their while. The true value may only realised some way into production in a year or two .

Yes, well done Conger. Wish I'd done the same. You may have helped me make my own mind up.

Have to see what tomorrow brings. Good luck.

NS. Really not sure where it goes from here. Bit baffled as to how 3 wells in 2 years constitutes an ambitious drilling program. Guess the three workovers add a bit of value.

Ssccss. To get out for whatever I can get or hang about for another year or two in the hope of better things. Getting a bit long in the tooth for the latter.

How spectaculary disappointing was that market reaction. Could have sold for a good deal more last week. Was it worth waiting for? Big decision to make now.