Member Info for gordogekko

it's 1% up.

Of course I could be wrong, i'd be an idiot if I thought I was right all the time. Like i said it's just my opinion that this continues to go down to 200 and below over the next 2-3 months.

@Clued, 2022 is 12 months long, so it's quite possible that people are waiting for better levels before getting in. There's still a lot of uncertainty around the equity markets which is keeping money off the table here.

Also CPI doesn't account for much of what true inflation actually is. Building materials a good example which are up in the top double digit %. Also banks don't increase rates to counter inflation, the central bank does which forces banks to do so too. Nothing wrong with holding this long term as it will come good, but it will continue to sell off before it goes back to the 270ish level.

In my opinion yes, check my posts. They all have 'sell' as my opinion.

As @Contrarian123 mentioned, this is likely to keep dipping as the macro sell off takes place before we see reinvestment to companies with decent balance sheets, such as this. Chill your beans dude.

Contrarian123 - absolutely correct, as I pointed out in my other posts the macro picture is what is driving this right now. Once money comes back on the table this should perform well.

Rates go up, risk comes off which will suppress equities, hence why I expect this to sell off here. Also will increase funding rates for retail traders, albeit not much...

Rates affect the whole markets, to say it has no exposure to rates is a little crazy. To reiterate my view, fully agree this is a great long term hold, but lack of volatility as risk comes and investors sit in cash for extended periods will see prices come down. Fully expect this to happen but that's just my educated guess. Of course I wish you good luck, just make sure you're buying these dips to average lower.

Hey Clued, yeah I think maybe best to take a look at the macro picture here. Even when companies are financially sound it's common for them to sell off due to macro headwinds, in this instance risk is quite likely to come off the table over the next few months as the fed starts tapering and UK/US rates start increasing. Reduced inflation and a tightening of cheap cash means people will look to sell. Completely agree that this is a good buy in the long run, just not at these levels given everything else that's going on.

Don't you think that a 20k position roughly £46k on today's price is a bit of a weak allocation for a CFO? doesn't fill me with boat loads of confidence...

I don't think there's any bad news out there as such, it's just market vol. Also this idea that vol is going to return to the markets is over egged tbh, if anything I think it's more likely to reduce significantly as the inflation narrative fades. Also COVID worries will see risk sell off, so if you think vol is coming back due to that then you're better off selling before buying the recovery in which CMC typically makes decent returns. Will go to 200 and below over the next 3 months.

Yeah. It's not to say that entry here is necessarily bad, it just depends on your horizon I guess. I'm looking to add a sizeable allocation here but like I said 200p and under.

I'm of the opinion this has further to go before we see any upside. Likely that once the inflation narrative fades, risk will come off the table across the board, so I'd expect a prolonged period of low volume on the leverage front which is where the juice is here. I'd be a buyer around the 200p level but even then I'd be averaging in.