Member Info for goingunderground

Troajans posts appear to encouraging people to sell. I can see him buying in the 3's . He's trying to push the sp down . Surely there is no other possible motive

WRES downgraded their production estimate for the 21FY from 882t down to 622t (W + Sn combined)
Production to the end of Q3 was 415t. This means that WRES's expectation is production of 207t combined for Q4..
207t would be the most they have ever produced in a quarter. So I can see the headline now IF they do it. They will be proclaiming a success !
Nameplate production (and the basis of the FID for LP alone) in a year is 3100t combined (2700t W and 400t Sn)
Now take that expectation of 207t (24/7 production remember on the best ground) Its gonna produce 828t or around 27% of nameplate.
This why the sp is on the floor and shows no chance of longer term recovery. If they were able to hit the nameplate numbers and provide a 4 fold increase that is required then it would be reasonable to assume a 4 fold increase in the share price. 4 x 4.75 is 19p)
Now tell me how they acheive the 4 fold increase required without spending another bean in capex

Troajan "hopefully,that pesky rom feed,gets to 350/400 tons"

More misinformation. ROM. You don't know what it is do you ?
The ROM for Q1 + Q2 + Q3 is over 700,000 tons comfortably exceeding 350/400 tons already. Unless you meant per ms/minute/hour. (I'll give you an out)

Clueless misinformation.

Pecten "So gug, as you are so keen on accurate maths, what % upside does the Shard 19p valuation offer from the current SP?"

I'm not fussed on accurate maths. I am fussed about people trying to mislead by using incorrect numbers in the maths. The shard valuation is an opinion and not a target. We can all have opinions.

WRES downgraded their production estimate for the 21FY from 882t down to 622t (W + Sn combined)
Production to the end of Q3 was 415t. This means that WRES's expectation is production of 207t combined for Q4..
207t would be the most they have ever produced in a quarter. So I can see the headline now IF they do it. They will be proclaiming a success !
Nameplate production (and the basis of the FID for LP alone) in a year is 3100t combined (2700t W and 400t Sn)
Now take that expectation of 207t (24/7 production remember on the best ground) Its gonna produce 828t or around 27% of nameplate.
This why the sp is on the floor and shows no chance of longer term recovery. If they were able to hit the nameplate numbers and provide a 4 fold increase that is required then it would be reasonable to assume a 4 fold increase in the share price. 4 x 4.75 is 19p)
Now tell me how they acheive the 4 fold increase required without spending another bean in capex

Misleading again Troajan. It is NOT a Target.

Furthermore you post "according to this,restet
https://wresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Shard-ARC-WRES-26-10-2021-Q3-production.pdf
2022 concetrate expectations,are still 2500t' per anum.

so not your 1600t?"

See the link in your comment above. Instead of just posting links why don't you actually read them ? Better still understand them ? It says in that shard link :
"We have updated our model to reflect new guidance. We now assume 622t of
concentrate production for FY21 (down from 882t) and have conservatively elongated ramp-up
which pushes 2022 production down to 1,600t concentrate (from 2,500t). We have also tweaked
down tin recovery assumptions until further clarity emerges. This results in a reduction in our
estimate of fair value to 19p/sh from 23p/sh, based on a blend of NAV and forward EBITDA."

Its not "my" 1600t" It is Shards 1600t. It is not DMT either it is concentrate. Thats what's in the bags you sell.

You have no concept of the business model do you. No comprehension of the numbers. No understanding of what point you are trying to convey.
Ignore Desperate ramping trolls, thats my advice to anyone.

Shard do not have a target and it isn't 23p. They have a Fair value estimate, it was dropped from 23p to 19p after the "record breaking" Q3 results. It is based on a forward veiw of assumptions that IMO opinion will not be met, it is a reports that they were renumerated by WRES to write. It is a marketing document.

Here is the salient information from the latest shard rmarketing document

"We have updated our model to reflect new guidance. We now assume 622t of
concentrate production for FY21 (down from 882t) and have conservatively elongated ramp-up
which pushes 2022 production down to 1,600t concentrate (from 2,500t). We have also tweaked
down tin recovery assumptions until further clarity emerges. This results in a reduction in our
estimate of fair value to 19p/sh from 23p/sh, based on a blend of NAV and forward EBITDA."

STOP Misleading people with your 23p Target headline. It is nonsense.

Safetynan "Well that means the effort put into GUG’s postings since mid 20s makes very little sense in terms of motive."
Why do you post here ? Other than you, like anyone else has any right too ? Is just to reaffirm over and over again that you did the right thing. When clearly hanging on was not the right thing to do. 85-90% down is a terrible state of affairs, but I don't understand why you continually moan about about me being correct, rephrase my comments to suit your purposes other than a motive to discredit what I say. Theres that word motive again but from the other side. There are other people that deserve criticism, the ones that have lost a great deal of your hard money (on paper) Why not have a go, it might make you feel better. Alternatively you can read all of the historical links that get posted on here and keep believing that one day they will come true. (they won't IMO)
Happy New Year.

Courage ? No courage required. I've said it enough times, it hardly needs repeating. I've been saying it since mid 20p's when I was weighing up making a significant investment and look, here we are under 5p. I guess that is confirmation that I was correct not to do so.
For the avoidance of any doubt anyone can read my posting history and i can confirm that even when it gets into the 2's and should the share still be trading, I won't be buying any then.
Is that clear enough ?
I wish you luck for 2022.

Happy new year Pecten. ;-)

It was a simple statement
"Leave it until the week after and you'll be buying in the 3's IMO. (But even then I wouldn't be hasty)"

You think it will be double that at 6p, 7p, 8p.
100%. I am not losing any money. What about you bud.

"but you wont see 3p and you know that."
No, au contraire. It will be in the 3's soon enough.
Lets see.

We'll see Troajan. I know who will be closer.

Leave it until the week after and you'll be buying in the 3's IMO. (But even then I wouldn't be hasty)

You still working Troajan? Time to come off the gas my friend. Are we going to see a repeat of Xmas day with your interminable posting of irrelevant and/or historical links. If it was documented that Dinosaurs ate Tin, I'm sure you'd produce it from your archive and the weird, unusual and utterley pointless bock of "fact"oids.

£6m MCAP. £70m Debt, £6m Revenues pa . and a whopping pre-tax loss. That is reality. Turn off the lights.
Happy New Year

Stevebt "Possibly low three’s. Have you considered the big sell could of been geng?" No. I don't really care. It might have been Troajan, with all the shares hes claimed he has bought he must be near a 3% declaration now :-)) Lol.

I believe you sold up Stevebt. Wise move

IE "Every sell is a buy and vice versa."

Eventually, but at what price. Honestly, if you don't see the writing on the wall now, there is little hope you ever will. Confirmation will come when the numbers are made available. I was optimistic at the start of DEcember that Total Concentrate production would be circa 220t, still a country mile from where it should be of 625t.
Now, following the long silenceand lack of any kind of update, I'm at 160-170t all in. Its taken a step back otherwise something would have been said to support the sp. Who knows other than the BOD who would have weekly updates as a minimum
Happy New year. Its all over bar the covid testing now

Xmas party instantexpert. The last Hurraah

"What was Gengs low forecast ?"

I mean his most recent, he's pretty useless at it :-)

What was Gengs low forecast ?

V Large sell.
In my opinion somebody has made a good new years resolution. Well done to them. Takes much bravery. If that is a LTH its likely to be only 90% of investment returned. Potentially £180k-200k initial investment, but better to come away with something. Who knows they may buy back in the 3's (or less)

Tough breeding.
Hope you remain well.