Member Info for Gohanito

I am a long term holder and sufferer. Personally I would avoid all but a few British / European shares (Voda is not one of the shares i would recommend). All in the US stock market :)

I have sold my holding but still following.

This RNS feels like its straight from 2016. For 8 (eight!!!!) years they are talking about stabilizing and dewatering. I am no expert but how long does it take to actually figure this out??? They have spent 20m AUD and more and the better part of a decade and have done diddly squat..

To the people that say panic sellers this and the other.. its not panic selling. It’s losing faith in these people being good stewards for our money.

I sincerely hope whoever has shares in this business makes bank 👊

Share price peaked at about 15p and is delisting now. I mean i don't know what the stock exchange venue has to do with company valuations when deadlines are missed constantly, radio silence for months on company developments (gas flow rates, reserves etc.), endless fundraising without showing concrete progress, change of strategy all the time with solar, then crypto then whatever.. I was hoping for a hail Mary given supposedly we are close to production but alas it wasn't meant to be.. I don't usually write negative posts but this is a disaster and should have sold earlier in the year with much more of my capital intact.

The cost saving is miniscule.. also blaming the stock exchange venue for not supporting value while basically management have being in constant fundraising mode without producing any results.. anyway it was a super risky play to begin with but glad i didnt lose all my capital.

A small rise... i see :D

i have been holding Tlou for 10 years and today i am out. GL everyone!

It's unlikely she has "received" variable compensation of ~£3m. Probably received share options under a LTIP which would vest in a few years time and has specific share targets in place.

I think with dividends reinvested the returns are closer to 5x since listing so not sure where you are getting the 170% figure (perhaps you are taking only the dividends?). Also PHNX is trading pretty low compared to its historic average so would think there should be significant price appreciation which coupled with a strong dividend means significantly enhancing TRs

I think they have a termsheet for the mezzanine debt facility for A$8.5m? Plus the fundraise of A$1m they should have plenty of cash to finish this.

Your raise valid points and people do have concerns. I absolutely agree the company has been poor in terms of telling us info around gas flows etc. Putting financing in place rather than diluting again is a nice one to have and hopefully it won't erode much the profit margins when the company starts generating cash.

At the end of the day this is a high risk venture in a high risk jurisdiction.

Pre-market looks good!

Thanks! sorry too lazy to look for myself but under that assumption at let's say 30% EBITDA it's a relatively attractive proposition at 25 MW using a conservative 12x multiple. Hopefully they can scale much more than that ofc.

Does anyone know what 1 MW of power equates in revenue / profit?

With all due respect, not disputing your trading accolades but saying you traded in and out on any given day making a small profit a) doesn't mean its repeatable, d b) doesn't make you a trading guru and c) doesn't make it true. Sorry

Maybe you should take a break from investing or just buy the Mag 7 :)

It is surprising how many posters are taken back by the divi cut! It was announced a couple of months ago that the capital allocation policy was being changed and the dividend was going to get cut by 50% from 2025 onwards.

I agree re takeover being a remote possibility (hence the caveat in my wording) - Vodafone is way too big even for the largest PE houses to buy and forking £30bn would require a consortium of PE houses. Most likely scenario will be an acquisition by a peer (even that is remote) or Vodafone slimming down even further (perhaps selling Mpensa?) which would make the acquisition more palatable.

Nevertheless, I believe now we have bottomed out from a valuation perspective and I expect over the next few years Vodafone to produce fairly decent but unspectacular returns. I do have to say though that you should take my opinion with a grain of salt as i have always been a bullish on Voda (given sum of all parts valuation being lower than its individual businesses) which has resulted in me being early to the party with an average of around £1.

Namely - as Europe is overcoming recession, revenue will start growing quicker (with the added benefit of not wasting money keeping afloat section of the business that were underperforming i.e. Italy and Spain and releasing resources for additional investment where they earn their cost of capital), lower interest rates making debt burden easier to service, merger with three in the UK and overall more business friendly attitude by regulators and finally very cheap valuation which could result in a takeover deal.

Kev - buybacks haven't started, Italian asset not sold yet etc. You will not see an immediate impact on share price but rather a gradual one. The direction of travel will depend not on the buybacks as much as performance of the remaining assets. I think there are a couple of catalysts for Vodafone that could see it return to £1 of more.

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KenRow - hopefully the below will prove helpful in understanding buybacks. You can never tell if buybacks will result in share price appreciation as these depends on a host of other factors besides the buyback.

https://hbr.org/2001/04/is-a-share-buyback-right-for-your-company

Not sure why this is confusing? If there is a £1 offer for Vodafone, the trading price in LSE will also go to about that level (probably slightly lower given uncertainty re the transaction actually happening). Assuming you bought at £1.40 then you would be underwater. At this point you can sell and take the loss or keep your shares and wait for a number of scenarios to transpire.