The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
There were a number of shows on the way down that I think will be fully tested on the way down rather than waiting until we reach a Target Depth (just my opinion). These shows were not tested with wireline tools in the first hole, so they will be wanting to see if the get the same results at the second hole and investigate them fully.
Judgement day may be a bit extreme, but I'm sure DM will be getting all the data he can each step of the way down. If there is no discovery, I wouldn't class that as a failure. We are still learning about the composition of the basin and migration system, so we need as many data points as we can get.
The SP has tried to reach beyond 15.2p a few times, but the lows are getting higher and that ceiling will soon be tested in earnest. https://invst.ly/vsx6l It's a little too early to see where the market will try to set the price tomorrow (usually a rise or fall in the last hour), but I can't see us being offered shares at a discount so I think we will end today above 15p.
The wellhead may already be set but drilling won't begin again until that is in place. A couple of weeks of drilling and then more price movement. For the last well we initially bounced between 20p-22p so we may go up a bit yet, although some sentiment will need to be discounted.
I'm hoping they have the wellhead already drilled and are just waiting on the cement to dry. I'm don't think we will get a discovery from the 70m show as there will not be much pressure at that depth, but any news will be most welcome.
It may have been because the wireline tool got hung up in Tai-1. I don't know how the insurance works, but it may be that once there is a known problem with using the tools in the hole, the insurance is void for that hole. That would be the only reason I can think of for not testing the shallow shows at Tai-1 (if they haven't).
I would estimate the PQ' size hole will take the same 5 days to drill and cement the casing as the first. Drilling at a rate of about 40mpd? will see them reach 400m, which I believe was the area DM wanted to test, in just over a week? Not sure if they will try a flow test at that stage or just wireline, but looking forward to news around then.
I agree that a week is not much time between RNS, but it is frustrating. Especially as the report suggests that a larger bore hole would be a solution to our problems. The only issue with that is we already seem to be using the largest mineral rig that Mitchell Drilling have. https://mitchelldrillinginternational.com/equipment/ For diamond drilling, the machine we are using already uses the largest sizes available https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_diamond_drilling so i'm not sure what they are suggesting .
We know there are other prospects we will be looking at and I believe we have 15 licences for drilling. There are no issues with finance, so we are just waiting to hear what happens next. We have probably been spoiled with the amount of news we have received from DM previously. In other mining companies, it is not unusual to go for months without news.
It has only been 1 week since the last RNS. Taking time now will save money later in whatever decisions are made. Tai-1A will be tested for the intervals that are accessible. I'm not sure how long this takes but a week would not seem unreasonable. After testing, they would need to analyse the data - this would include the soil type, density, porosity and whatever the gamma rays and neutron devices do.
Once we know what we have at Tai, I believe only then can we make an informed decision on the next best step. Rushing is not going to do us any favours so I am happy to wait for news. If I hadn't heard anything after a month that would be a different matter.
Forgot to add line chart link https://invst.ly/vs5b9
Well, the SP didn't even wait to reach the second wedge formation before falling. It followed the trendline down but I have no idea if it pauses, or rebounds from 11p. https://invst.ly/vs52m
The good news is that it seems to be pushing past the trendline, so there are signs of positive movement in the last hour. Only an RNS will really move the SP, so we are just drifting right now but hopefully we will continue to drift upwards tomorrow. Hopefully that will continue tomorrow.
There is a weak floor at 10.6p and a long-term resistance at 10.2p.
It's twoo, it's twoo!
Magic lines say the SP is moving in a restricted range and if no news tomorrow may finish at 12p. https://invst.ly/vrrzx
And why has there been no TA posts over the weekend? Maybe because there is no trading over the weekend? Surely it couldn't be that simple?
I use the very short term 5 min charts which gives a fairly good view of movement over the past few days. Given recent price movements, there is nothing to indicate any significant change in the SP. This may change around Wednesday when the wedge completes.
I'm pretty sure testing of the "reachable" shows will be taking place. It takes a while to prepare a new drill site and we haven't heard anything about that yet. Unless we are going to try another hole at Tai; but shallower prospects would make more sense to me. They want to keep within budget and they want 3 holes drilled before the end of the year.
Their finances were in place for the exploration drills before the £10m placing which was for the Appraisal drills and 3D seismic. I think they are quite a bit off from needing to look at extra funds, but you may be right. I wouldn't complain about them doing so after a discovery. :o)
They can't confirm the helium is there because they can't get the wireline tools down far enough. There were helium shows though - they just don't have enough data to state exactly what us there.
It's a pity they can't just fill the hole with a soft cement then drill again through that without needing to worry about washing away the loose mud and sediment. Then send some small blasting caps down to the show levels and test what is coming through.
I wonder how many drillers just facepalmed at that suggestion. lol
Before they move the rig, they will need to prepare the new site. We have not heard anything about that, so possibly testing the areas we can get reach while that is done.
I'm not sure what the benefit of a larger bore hole would be. We started with a large bore for the first 55m and cemented this to create the well head. Then a smaller drill bit was used to 400m where we cemented the casing to protect the water table; then a smaller drill bit went into that and the damn thing broke off. We know the rig being used which should be able to reach the 1200m - I don't believe other sites are as deep so there was no issue with the rig itself. https://www.mccullochsdrilling.com.au/new-equipment/hanjin-d-b-45-cbm
A larger bore hole would not make the rock they are drilling through any more stable and would be just as likely to collapse. They do not need to redrill Tai-1A - they can test around 800m of this hole.
The wider bore that would be used for the Appraisal drill would be to make a larger hole that could be used to test gas flow. While drilling they would also be able to get core samples. One of the main issues we faced was that we had no idea what rock we would be drilling at any given time, so the pressure would have to have been continually monitored. The fact that the shear happened about 30m above the drill bit suggests a weakness in one of the drill rods. More likely to be wear and tear rather than an experienced drill crew messing up.
Yeah, hard to say where the profit will come from next, but I think HE1 will be going back up as we know we have done only 1 of 3/4 drills. Next news will create stability and we know how this has performed in the past. By next drill result I hope to have traded an increase in the shares I hold here.
How read up are you on SYME? I was invested there for a while, but sold to come in here.
They are setting up a new asset class for inventory monetisation (customers are screened first) and they can get cash for existing stock (that sells) and I believe also for goods in transit - creating cashflow for companies.
They have been trying to set up a captive bank for some time but this has dragged on. They recently partnered/merged with another company which will expand the customer base but there are still a few outstanding questions on finances. It is a bit of a gamble and i'm not sure why it jumped the way it did today. It may continue to increase, but be very careful of getting spiked. The SP was at the current level around 3 months ago, bur has been on a downward trajectory. An interesting share though.
I put 90% of my eggs in this basket, but that was because it had basically recovered huge losses from the predecessor - AOGL here. Also broke the rule about always protecting the principal. A reduction in profit is not the same as losing money. Strangely, i'm not too concerned right now. Maybe i'm just dippit.
HE1 should have about £12m in cash right now. In December we had $6m available which would cover the exploration phase and then we raised £10m to secure the rig that would also drill appraisal wells (£2.4m). This also covers £3.8m for 3D Seismic of any discovery and a few more million for feasibility studies, licence fees, contingencies, expenses etc.
We have not heard about a new site being prepared, so are we redrilling Tai? I don't think there is anything to be learned right now by doing so. Or do we prepare the next site while completing the testing of the shows that we can access? That would make sense to me, but just my opinion.
What next?
We either take readings from the parts of Tai-1A that we can reach with the wireline or move on.
(The more data we have the better so I would like to get info on the strata and the shows that we passed on the way down, even if a gas column was not "discovered")
We drill another hole at Tai
(If we know that the ground is unstable at this site beyond 800m then I'm not sure what benefit will be gained)
We drill another site
(Itambula and Kasuku had been mentioned before. I believe both of these are a different trap type too)
When it comes to drilling a new hole, the 2D will need to be used along with the data taken from Tai-1A which may take a while to interpret. The results from the next hole will also fill in some of the picture so we can read the basin and system better.
We are fully funded for exploration, appraisal and 3D Seismic of a discovery. No need to worry about finances for a while.
DM - some people seem to have lost faith in him. I'm not sure he can be blamed for being enthusiastic about the project and the maiden drill. I am not aware of any misinformation from the the interviews although I was slightly worried about that DT article. It did not read like an interview and made no mention of when it took place. Was the information reported cherrypicked? It seemed more like a ramp than an interview so I largely ignored it.
Some posters try to "read between the lines" to find a hidden meaning in articles and tweets, but other than a slight delay of perhaps a week in updating us (I assume to be sure they have a read on the situation) HE1 has not made any unfounded or misleading claims IMO.
I'm still invested and down 5 figures, but we have drilled 1 hole and have finances in place for 2/3 more as well as the appraisal drilling. I'm not going anywhere - we have confirmation that there is a working Helium system and efficient seals are not required to make an effective seal. This could open up a lot more potential sites that were initially written off.
We will probably need to wait a few days for the market to settle before we have a clear indication of a new baseline and where we go from here.
16/04 - Placing and Subscription raising £10 million at 10p per share
The drop today was supported by a trend line on the chart and also falling to the last placing price. Falling below this would be excessive and I believe this level would be the baseline for any drop. This paid for Appraisal drilling and 3D Seismic as existing funds covered the Exploration drill costs.
[ Whilst the three well exploration programme remains fully funded from the Company's existing cash resources, additional funds raised at this time will now enable the Company to contract the drill rig to allow appraisal drilling to take place immediately following the anticipated exploration success. Contracting the rig now will keep the rig on site and save an anticipated c.4 months or more of drilling downtime and c.US$500k in rig mobilisation and demobilisation costs. The proceeds will also allow for the mobilisation of a 3D seismic programme to maximise anticipated reserve to resource conversion and will fund the costs of a feasibility study as well as working capital and licence fees.
· Appraisal well drilling: £2.4 million
· Enhanced well completion: £0.5 million
· 3D seismic programme: £3.8 million
· Feasibility Studies and licence fees: £1.2 million
· Additional operational contingencies, working capital and expenses: £2.1 million ]
28/04 - SP had climbed to 17p having been 12p a week before
29/04 - Mobilisation of Drill Rig & trading on the OTCQB. SP reaches 20p
04/05 - Completion of Extended 2D Seismic Campaign. SP reaches 24p as it is reported that Tai is a must drill location due to triple stack formation identified on Seismic.
With reduced sentiment and our position being back to pre-Tai levels, I would expect the SP to settle in a range between 14p-17p. There is an upper resistance at 14.2p from highs in mid and late April, and lower resistance at 10.2p. There is resistance at 16.65p and 17.52p. I don't think we will fall back to 10p or reach the 8p level that we left in March before any upward momentum took place.
After we have news on what the next steps are, we should see the SP move upwards to 14p-17p. Do we stay at Tai to test the Shows that we can access? I believe we should - it will give us more data points to marry up with results from the next hole. A few more days before we hear news and hopefully things will have settled down. We know the Rukwa basin has Helium in it and it is migrating through the system. We just need to find an accumulation of gas with preferably a stable bore hole.
If we do move on from Tai at this point, I believe it is not a reflection on the Helium levels or faith in the project, but to get a better understanding of the overall geology of the basin and to test other trap styles. If there are the same problems in drilling at other sites a plan will need to be put in place to counter this. It is likely that if Tai is not drilled again we will be testing a different trap style. I believe from the presentations that the other sites would not need to drill so deep.