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Before the closing of Petrotrin, PB commented that this would Mean that we would be paid close to the price of brent. Now after 3 months the discounts has fallen more than 50%. The market haven't picked up this yet. The discounts was like an extra royalty from gross earnings. Had we operate with a 8% discount in 2018 our netbacks would have been 32 USD instead of 26,71 USD. Trinity had a netback of 23 USD, we Are looking at more than 30% higher netbacks, with less volume. Those that follow txp closely, also know that extra barrels above 1800 bopd will significantly increase netbacks, as administration costs are the same and will now be spread out on more barrels. Our realised average brent price in 2018 was around 59-60 USD, i think we can beat that with prices and messer discounts this year. If we just go with 32 USD x 2200 bopd x 365 you end up with USD 25.696.000, which is more than USD 2.000.000 in positive cashflow every month. Imagine what would happen with cashflow at 40 USD and 3000 bopd, which should be a reality very soon :)
I really hated that they delisted, but when I look back I"m glad they did it, because otherwise I wouldn't have sold.. This is beyond logic, i really don't Hope something is rotten for you guys, but can't stop thinking what makes People sell on 0,46 cad or 26 p.. If it's just because of the delist and delays it could turn out to be the pick of the year
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256785-touchstone-exploration-onshore-trinidad-oil-producer-imminent-3-well-drilling-program 1750mk1 look up the discounts for march ;)
Sunday, PB said they would use debt to put up infrastruktur, and use cashflow/equity for exploration. If we see another equity its because we have hit jackpot, so No worries.. Pipe for the first drill is only 3km and I think it will take between 3-6 months to construct.. They should start the development drilling as that will add to the cashflow so we could do more drillings through that in the future :)
With brent above 70 USD, we might also the 3. Well from cashflow.. In the middle of January we had above 10 mil USD and then we raised around 5 mil USD in the equity. On top of that we Are making around 2 mil. USD of cashflow every month. So we should be well supplied for both the development and exploration programmes :)
If we assume that we have a 2200 bopd sale every day with a 8% discount to brent with brent at 75 USD, we would have a revenue of 4,5 mil USD circa. With a realised price of 69 USD and a conservative 35 USD netback would give around 2,3 mil. USD i positive cashflow every month. Compare that with 10.3 mil USD in cashflow the whole of 2018, and you would have around 150% incresea y/y without Even drilling a single well. If we manage to reach 3000 bopd before we end 2019 you could add some 50% on top of it ;)
This Board is so quiet with like 4-6 posters. If you take a look at cerp's Board they have had like 100 posts since friday, and we had 1 here. When will investors on aim find out about this well driven business. - producing in ATH - discounts going down, and netbacks up - 40 days from first of 3 exciting exploration targets - top class management - soon to start development programme again Whats not to like? No other trinidian E&P have such a strong business model, not Even trin. When we see All the other companies struggle to handle spt, thats only a plus for us, because the government will have to do something to boost spending in development. Cerp didnt drill last year, and will drill 1 shallow well, that will cost them around 500K. That's the half of 1 of our development wells :D. Not the kind of exploration LK was hinting at before. Trin has difficulty in just maintaining their decline rates with 6-8 wells a year, due to mature fields. Heritage will have to pay 36% in spt on their offshore wells, so they will have a very though task in raising production with those terms. So it's literrally only txp that have a substantially growth in oilproduction y/y, and this year wont be different, I think. Tick tack June is coming :)