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Yes when it come to the financials :).. Really exciting times coming up now.. Remember PB has an average buying price on 2 CDN, it would be a good opportunity for him to but that down a bit.. Lets see if My assumptions will come true.. I really Hope so
I expect some heavy inside trades from Directors and management after Q1.. They are restricted from buying most of the year because of TSX rules (restricted since november).. Think the small window after Q1 will be utilised. Last chance for them before ortoire kicks in
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2820907428133861/ Here it is
Investors fail to understand what he is speaking about, this is not about 3-4 wells, if we prove the concept, this will lead to many led up wells All over the block.. This is what he is referring to that he hasn't seen onshore in his entire life. If it were the CEO of CERP, he would have said we Are talking about a billion doller in marketcap if succesfuld :D.. So here we have it again, first say we have the first 2 funded, and now surprise every one and say certainly plenty of Cash to fund the whole programme which is 4 wells with last one in Q1.. Still a gift uf at these prices
"In My 30 years of being in this business, i have never seen such prospect onshore in My intire life" Guys All 3 exploratory wells are fully funded Sit back and enjoy the journey https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2019/05/02/valuethemarkets-podcast-007-paul-baay-of-touchstone-exploration-on-the-forthcoming-ortoire-block-drilling-programme/
Price of oil is were it should be for now - art berman http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/MacroVoices-Podcast.mp3
I have a strong feeling that we would soon hear, that the building of roads have been completed and that we Are looking at an early spud.. 10 days ago i know equipment was in place and that work had commenced :)
Like the fact that touchstone shared the seeking Alpha article on their Facebook page, which should confirm whatever that was written in it.. They also took this part out of the article Seeking Alpha "To varying degrees, each single well could transform Touchstone from a little known small ‘also ran’ operator into something much larger. Any two success combination would be off the chart really” https://bit.ly/2L2bMKV #TXP
Good luck to us All :).. I will follow trin closely, and if something should change, I would also but some bucks on it, but for now im am heavely invested in TXP. Will also be more easy to compare the two when txp starts reporting in USD :)
Confounded, Thanks for your post. In regards to realised sales price you are right. In 2018 trin actually received around USD 0,50 more pr barrel than txp, but txp still had a netback around USD 3,5 higher than trin (after conversion from CDN). I think you misses the point of my argument about the discount. Had we had the discount in 2018, that we have in march 2019, the netback of TXP would have been 5 USD higher and our realised sales price would have been USD 4,5 higher than trins. In regards to ortoire, i think its a bit too early to say anything against it, management paid GLJ to do a 3 part report, and they say, 100% chance of hydrocarbons and 95% chance of commerciality. Actually I see management very conservative in their communication, and they certainly delivers on their goals. I dont know how much you have read about ortoire, but the hype will certainly increase, come June. In regards to the raise, I agree with you, PB said the Board wasn't ready to do equity and wanted to use cashflow, but I think the price crash made them nervous, and because they have to drill 4 before october 2020, they choose to do the safe Thing. However they had 10 mil USD in January and raised 5 mil. USD in february, on top of that they have around 1,8 - 2 mil USD in cashflow every month, so they should be allright to do 3 exploration wells for 12-13 mil. USD and some development wells in 2019. The last ortoire well can be drilled in 2020.. If these wells was only to fulfill commitments they could have chosen some very shallow ones, they were not obligated to drill 11000 feet (royston), so I think they Mean what they say. I am not underestimating TRIN, I'm actually a regular read er of this board. I'm just saying that 10% of growth for a company with strong balance, is quite unambitious, or a sign that decline rates are high. I will look forward to hearing more about TGAL, and I also Hope All T&T oilers become successful, just see txp as the most ambitious with the best business model. Time will show as you say :)
Crl, we All look at investment differently. I see txp as a more solid and promising company than trin, and thats is for several reasons 1. We have higher netbacks than trin, trin had 23 USD in 2018 we had around 27 USD. This will however increase now, because the discount for brent has already fallen 8% this year. With the discounts to brent we recieve now, would have put us at 33 USD in netback in 2018 around 9 USD more than trin pr barrel 2. Trins assets are mature, and despite drilling a lot of wells, management only have a goal of 10% growth in production. High decline rates has a say here. Txp are growing very aggresively, and more than 200% y/y growth in cashflow, which they would probably have again in 2019 if oil prices stick around. This would also help increase netbacks, as fixed costs would be spread on more barrels 3. Txp is about to diversify their producing assets to also contain LNG, this will serve as a great hedge on low oilprices. Gas would be sold for a fixed price of USD 3.15 MMbtu to the national gas entity. Also there are No SPT on gas. 4. Txp operate onshore and therefore pay less spt than trinity, which also have some offshore production. Exploration costs are also lower onshore, despite our prospects have offshore potientiel sizewise. 5. Trin has a better financiel position, because they haven't Any debt, I acknoledge that, but trin also have a higher marketcap. If you take the entreprise value txp might be a bit more expensive, but that is also fair, when you consider forward p/e for them both. Trin has a bit more P2 reserves, but that is soon to change, come ortoire With All this said, trin is also a very exciting company and definitely undervalued. TXP will just outperform the T&T oilers next couple of years. They have shown how to grow production, and know they are about to show how they will expand with low risk exploration. If you want to read more about that, this is a good place to start (link beneath) P. S just because you own one of them, doesn't Mean you cant own the other as well. If Anyone believes in the future of T&T oilers, it would be clever to spread the risk on different companies. I dont see cerp as a great company at All, but trin and txp will do fine (I think) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256785-touchstone-exploration-onshore-trinidad-oil-producer-imminent-3-well-drilling-program