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Given that the mid price close was based on a buy of just 100 shares we should consider that todays net sale of 1.5 million shares actually moved the SP from 6.50 to 6.15 or just over 5%.
Still only half the effect of the day before :)
The last trade at 16:29:38 was @6.20 and the quote was 6.20/6.30. However it was for only 100 shares so taking slightly larger trades a little earlier the buy/sell was 6.10/6.20 so 6.15 would be a better mid price close. Still a touch over 30% up on the week :)
In my post under this subject heading at 09:27 I suggested that there was a large sell that would be reported late.
At 09:32:36 500k shares were sold @ 6.41 (while other sells were being done at about 6.75 - this is what happens when you trade 5 x the market size) and not reported until about 14:45.
There were another 5 large sells, all reported late, and most incorrectly marked as buys.
The actual figures for the day were about 3 million shares bought and 4.5 million sold.
Whereas yesterday a net buy of 1.6 million shares resulted in the SP advancing from 5.90 to 6.50 or 10% todays net sale of 1.5 million shares only moved the SP from 6.50 to 6.25 or 4%.
This tells me that the MMs were, and may still be short.
Mid price @ close on Friday 16th April was 4.65.
Mid price @ close today, Friday 23rd April, was 6.25.
That's a 34% rise with a touch under 25 million shares traded (5.8% of the shares in issue), nothing to complain about here :)
Bid is now 6.6750. MMs suddenly not so keen to buy, has someone sold a quantity? Expect a delayed sell to be reported eventually.
Latest: small, 10k shares, buy @ 6.9999 and an UT @ 7.000
Online quote @ 08:52: 6.7000 / 6.7900
From experience we should, by now, all know that GS can be over optimistic on timelines and the RCF counterparty has proved to be glacial in making it's mind up and closing a deal.
Do not therefore be surprised if, and I quote "The Company expects to make a further update regarding this before the end of April." if the update gets pushed back into May.
The SP moved up 10% today on the back of 1.5 million shares sold and 3.1 million bought. So net buying of 1.6 million shares was responsible for the 10% rise. This 'shortage of stock' or 'illiquidity' is ALGW's greatest strength but also it's greatest weakness. If the SP can move up 10% on net buying of 1.6 million shares it can go the other way too.
My paper profit might be £500k but there is no way I could actually make that a reality, not that I have any intention of doing so until the SP is multiples of where it is today, without drip selling over several months. Mark Ward, who has some 84 million shares and 50 million warrants is basically a captive until buyout.
jgj99 said his father-in-law had bought 3 million shares.
The SP moved to 5p when the trading update was released on 9th April. At the time not many seemed to realise the significance of the 100 life policies being reviewed by the RCF counterparty. However this was flagged in a post a week or so back and, as the news on the 'review' is imminent, some have taken a position in anticipation.
IF the RCF counterparty takes up a decent quantity of those 100 policies then, IMO, ALGW will have proved it's case in the big, grown up world, of asset management and the only way will be up.
10p would be my guestimate.
This will interest you and may he rot in hell.
https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2020-releases/20-201mr-continental-coal-directors-and-company-secretary-charged-with-breaches-of-directors-duties-and-making-false-and-misleading-statements/
This will be of interest to you and may he rot in hell.
https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2020-releases/20-201mr-continental-coal-directors-and-company-secretary-charged-with-breaches-of-directors-duties-and-making-false-and-misleading-statements/
I realise that my last post might sound a little boastful. It wasn't intended as such and if you are not in a position to invest as much as I am remember that you probably have a lot longer than I to continue playing this game. I am over pensionable age and have owned stocks and shares for over 40 years.
I have made some spectacularly bad decisions in that time the most memorable being RRL and it's associated partners Red Emperor and Africa Energy. That debacle resulted in losses of about £300k.
On a brighter note I was able to stag the IPO's of BT, British Gas at al when I only had enough cash to make small investments. The dotcom boom saw me do well though I should have sold Izodia at £40 instead of watching it drop and getting out at £27.50 but as I only paid £1 it was still 'lovly jubbly' :)
Thanks jgj99, I still have all 12 million shares and am showing a little over £500k profit atm :)
Flippin' ek :) @ 14.41: 6.2300 / 6.2899
@ 14.10: 6.0300 / 6.1899
As @ 10.16: 5.9250 / 5.9799
Every single ad for CFD providers, that I see on Bloomberg, states in the 'small print' that 75+% of people lose money trading CFD's. That should tell you something :)
@Raaydaar: I didn't think anyone was offering CFD's on ALGW. The leverage you can get on CFD's make them way too risky for me.