The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
E-commerce as share of total apparel sales in the UK 2018-2025
Published by Daniela Coppola, Jan 20, 2022
In the United Kingdom, online apparel sales grew significantly as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, e-commerce accounted for 55 percent of all apparel sales in the European country, almost 20 percentage points higher than the previous year. While a slight decline was expected in 2021 as the nation adapted to the new normal, forecasts indicate that the online segment has come to stay and will continue to grow in the coming years.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1276760/e-commerce-share-apparel-sales-uk/
(Interesting 2023 is expected to see similar levels of online fashion sales to that of 2020 - and it's forecast to pick up even more from thereon, year on year).
"It is true that current earnings and the immediate prospects may both be poor, but a level-headed appraisal of average future conditions would indicate values far above ruling prices. Thus the wisdom of having courage in depressed markets is vindicated not only by the voice of experience but also by application of plausible techniques of value analysis. The same vagaries of the marketplace which recurrently establish a bargain condition in the general list account for the existence of many individual bargains at almost all market levels. The market is always making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks. Even a mere lack of interest or enthusiasm may impel a price decline to absurdly low levels. Thus we have two major sources of undervaluation: (a) currently disappointing results, and (b) protracted neglect or unpopularity"
"As we ring in the New Year, I would suggest we instead brace for a pleasant surprise. I can’t promise another “Summer of Love” for 2023 when it comes to sex, drugs or rock ‘n’ roll. But I do believe the New Year will deliver a surprisingly strong stock market globally"
https://nypost.com/2022/12/25/why-2023-will-be-like-1967s-summer-of-love-for-the-stock-market/
A new bull market is likely to start in 2023 - "inflation in the US peaked in June and has gone down five months in a row. Inflation is very unlikely to go back to the Fed's target of 2%, but the Fed is equally unlikely to continue with out-sized hikes in 2023 as inflation drops. If the FFR stays below 6%, I think the economy should hold and no recession materialize in 2023"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565503-a-new-bull-market-is-likely-to-start-in-2023
"A bull market will come sooner or later. The present market decline could offer a big opportunity for patient investors"
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/25/is-bull-market-on-way-in-2023-what-history-shows/in
Here’s when the next bull market is expected to begin, according to the experts surveyed:
7 percent said: “A new bull market has already begun.”
21 percent said: “A new bull market may begin before July of next year (or around the next six months).”
About 36 percent said: “A new bull market may begin in the second half of next year (2023).”
21 percent said: “It may be 2024 before a new bull market begins.”
14 percent said: “It may be sometime after 2024 when a new bull market begins.”
That distribution spreads pretty wide over the next 18 months or so, but a total of 57 percent said a bull market would begin again in 2023, whether in the first half or second half of the year
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/market-mavens-survey-bull-market-december-2022/
Coppleson: why the new bull market could start as soon as March 2023 -
The data suggests March 2023 could be a turning point for markets.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/coppleson-why-the-new-bull-market-could-start-as-soon-as-march-2023
"As we ring in the New Year, I would suggest we instead brace for a pleasant surprise. I can’t promise another “Summer of Love” for 2023 when it comes to sex, drugs or rock ‘n’ roll. But I do believe the New Year will deliver a surprisingly strong stock market globally"
https://nypost.com/2022/12/25/why-2023-will-be-like-1967s-summer-of-love-for-the-stock-market/
A new bull market is likely to start in 2023 - "inflation in the US peaked in June and has gone down five months in a row. Inflation is very unlikely to go back to the Fed's target of 2%, but the Fed is equally unlikely to continue with out-sized hikes in 2023 as inflation drops. If the FFR stays below 6%, I think the economy should hold and no recession materialize in 2023"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565503-a-new-bull-market-is-likely-to-start-in-2023
"A bull market will come sooner or later. The present market decline could offer a big opportunity for patient investors"
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/25/is-bull-market-on-way-in-2023-what-history-shows/in
Here’s when the next bull market is expected to begin, according to the experts surveyed:
7 percent said: “A new bull market has already begun.”
21 percent said: “A new bull market may begin before July of next year (or around the next six months).”
About 36 percent said: “A new bull market may begin in the second half of next year (2023).”
21 percent said: “It may be 2024 before a new bull market begins.”
14 percent said: “It may be sometime after 2024 when a new bull market begins.”
That distribution spreads pretty wide over the next 18 months or so, but a total of 57 percent said a bull market would begin again in 2023, whether in the first half or second half of the year
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/market-mavens-survey-bull-market-december-2022/
Coppleson: why the new bull market could start as soon as March 2023 -
The data suggests March 2023 could be a turning point for markets.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/coppleson-why-the-new-bull-market-could-start-as-soon-as-march-2023
"Fair value for ASC is 50p IMO"
How did you arrive at that conclusion? Shall I tell you? You quite literally plucked a number out of the air that you like the sound of. Just like your 5p prediction for Boohoo. At best you're a clueless numpty.
"Sadly I can see this going to 5p"
You literally don't have the first clue how to value a company
Jtan "Is nut more milk still here spouting crap? Lmfao"
Boohoo shareholders could say the same thing about you Jtan. You're not a shareholder there and yet you've posted a staggering 146 times in the last 30 days alone, all of it negative. I think it's called trolling, Jtan?
All in all 2023 could prove just as juicy as 2022 when it comes to M&A in fashion.
https://www.theindustry.fashion/in-review-2022-the-major-ma-deals-in-british-fashion-retail/
Why would shareholders be panic struck? The share price is already significantly oversold - only 10p higher than it was back in 2015 when the company was a mere fraction of the size it is now and with far smaller asset value. Early next year a brand new US distribution centre opens for business serving the most lucrative market of them all - for the first time, millions of Americans will be able to order their items and have them delivered promptly within a day or two. Business is going to seriously gather pace and the fortunes of the company will rapidly begin to turn around as a result. All the problems the company has been facing of late are temporary - absolutely so. Nobody ever thought we'd have the opportunity to buy this stock at near 2015 prices again with a view to riding it all the way back up to perhaps £4+ over the coming years - and yet here we are.
A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. To me, a price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains from among your worst performers and your laggards that show promise. If you can't convince yourself "When I'm down 25 percent, I'm a buyer" and banish forever the fatal thought "When I'm down 25 percent, I'm a seller," then you'll never make a decent profit in stocks - Peter Lynch
Boohoo is opening a new 1.1 million sq ft distribution centre in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, southeast of Harrisburg. The location, expected to open in early 2023, will allow Boohoo to offer next-day service to the New York City metro region — a key customer area for the fashion brand. DHL Supply Chain will lead the operation of the new centre
https://www.just-style.com/news/boohoo-eyes-us-sales-growth-with-first-stateside-warehouse/
Jtan posts negativity because he wants in lower and thinks if a dozen or so investors sell (based on his negative drivel) the share price would tank and he'd have his ideal entry price. He forgets there are 1.268bn shares in issue and it literally wouldn't matter how many shares small fry shareholders sold, it would make absolutely no difference to the share price. What's particularly amusing is how his 25p target price is only 10p off the current price anyway - a mere 30% lower. Hardly worth spending every freaking day of your life trolling a board for! And if he does end up missing the bottom, he comes across as one of those who'll dedicate his entire life to trolling the board all the way back up again in fustration! As I said yesterday, the thing to do is simply to begin accumulating at these prices. It's possible to get overly greedy and wait too long for a low that never comes. Focus instead on accumulating. Anyone buying at these prices are already getting a great price.
25p is about 30% lower than 36p. That's not a big number. It does seem a little odd someone would put so much energy into posting negativity in the hope of getting a slightly lower entry price (that almost certainly will never come). Most investors would simply begin accumulating at 36p and in the unlikely event it fell a few pence lower, continue to snap up cheap shares. Once a proper recovery gets underway, there's every likelihood this will comfortably be back above £1 in a relatively short space of time. And what will it matter then whether you bought at 36p or 33p or even 29p? All of those prices will one day look dirt cheap. Having an average of 32p or 39p isn't going to make much difference once the share price is £1.75 and climbing. You'll simply look back and wish you'd accumulated more when it was below 50p.
In 2015, the share price bottomed out at around 25p. It stayed there for months before lifting off and going into orbit over the following couple of years. Back then the company was considerably smaller, many hadn't even heard of boohoo back then, for a long time the company didn't have an app, had only a small following on twitter, Tom Winnifrith was running doom and gloom articles about it on twitter (which proved ultimately to be wrong - but still had the effect back then of rattling investors) - in short, the boohoo of 2015 was considered by many as high risk and one to be wary of. The boohoo of today is very much bigger - an established global giant almost everyone has heard of. And yet it's only 10p higher than it's fledgling days of 2015. Investors hoping to get in lower are not valuing this properly - and are at serious risk of missing the bottom. This should never have fallen below about 60p let alone 36p.
The war in Ukraine will end when Putin is either forced out of power - or dies. Russia is paying a heavy price for the actions of one man. Most Russians don't want this. At some point I think Putin will be taken out - probably by way of poisoning or gunshot perhaps from someone close to him and trusted by him. With Putin gone, there'd be a real opportunity for peace and restoration of relations with the west. The end of Putin's rule (and this conflict) could come at any time.
The war in Ukraine will end when Putin is either forced out of power - or dies. Russia is paying a heavy price for the actions of one man. Most Russians don't want this. At some point I think Putin will be taken out - probably by way of poisoning or gunshot perhaps from someone close to him and trusted by him. With Putin gone, there'd be a real opportunity for peace and restoration of relations with the west. The end of Putin's rule (and this conflict) could come at any time.
Jtan, you're assuming just because the stock hit 25p historically back in 2015, that it'll do so again. My point is you're not factoring in that the company has gone through a lot of growth since then. It isn't the same company it was back in 2015. Back then it was a fledgling that was only just starting out. The boohoo of today is an established global giant - many, many times bigger than it was back in 2015. The company is worth a lot more today than it was back in 2015 - the market, if anything, is already massively undervaluing the company. It's very oversold even at 36p. Sure you could hang around hoping you might get in lower, but it's fairly safe to say at 36p any further downside is likely to be absolutely minimal. The danger of waiting too long to take a position is you risk missing the bottom. You wait too long only for the stock to start rising forcing you either to buy the stock at a higher price or abandon the idea altogether. And we've all been there.
I briefly held over 90,000 shares @ 25p average back in 2015. Sold for a small profit a few months later - biggest mistake I ever made. I get the reason why you so desperately want this to retest those historical lows - but it's highly unlikely to happen. The company was far smaller back then and that's absolutely going to reflect on the market valuation. If you think otherwise, frankly you're an idiot.
In 2015, the share price bottomed out at around 25p. We have to remember the company was much smaller back then - on that basis, I can't see 25p happening again. One thing is certain, downside risk from 36p should be absolutely minimal, whilst upside potential is undoubtedly in multibag territory, certainly if taking a longer term view. It comes down to that old adage; time in the market beats timing the market.
All around the world, inflation is finally beginning to stabilise and interest rates aren't expected to go much higher, if at all. This suggests we're at or near the bottom of what has been a particularly brutal and prolonged bear market. It may not feel like it now, but a year from now there's a good chance investors will be looking back wishing they'd taken a position back in December 2022 when stocks were at or near their historic lows. As early as January or February 2023, I do think we'll be in the very early stages of a new bull market that'll only gather steam as the year progresses and last well into 2024 and quite possibly beyond.