Member Info for Ghia

This is an exceptional time period though this high revenue will last for 12-18months? You cannot attribute a high P/E based on this when you have knowledge that this is a temporary windfall.

The real question is what will the company do with all the cash they are accumulating.

Special dividend would be the best short term option for shareholders.

The true investors here might like to see them buy up a few smaller companies and make a go of it but that's riskier and I will not be part of that journey.

I think its safe to assume that they are selling enough to justify the 8mil/month manufacturing I very much doubt they are building to stock.

sales RNS's will not move this much unless they improve on the 8mil/month

hopefully the new direct to PCR test will be in addition to the current PCR output and not replace it.

I'm not 100% sure but I think qPCR and direct to PCR are different but maybe NYCT have just given it a different name?

Correct me if I am wrong but there are three types.

PCR (Novacyt current test)
qPCR(qPCR reaction do not need an agarose gel electrophoresis analysis after the qPCR reaction. This makes qPCR tests easier and faster compared to PCR tests.)

and now Direct PCR

So direct PCR is still slower than qPCR but direct PCR will alleviate some of the manufacturing bottle necks with the current PCR test hopefully without any loss of accuracy.

Sounds good.

Any scientists here that know the differences between "direct to PCR" and qPCR testing?

I have a free ride here and will hold now until the company decides to apportion funds.

I will bail if they do not decide the route of special dividend.

Curious to note is the share price leading or lagging your projected curves and by what %.

Also I would not expect you to share your complete model? That's an investors IP I would not share this with anyone outside of my investment circle.

By that logic the people spouting £10 a share are also idiots.

I fully understand market cap valuations thank you very much.

I'd love for you to explain how you would apportion the news to date into a forward looking P/E and what share price you would arrive at for current market value.

I have this model for the share price and guess what it's lagging about 10% behind what I think is fair value to date based on news.

Have you also noticed that with every RNS the rises have reduced? Look at how much news has been backed up and released since the last time the share was close to £5.

The FACT is the share price got ahead of itself trading on momentum the market efficiently priced this hence the drop. Its now pulling forward again on the news of orders and contracts etc.

The trajectory of this share is up its in a great position but the ramping here is ridiculous.

And you are a fool if you think you are more efficient at valuing a share than the market.

Agreed a sale would not give share holders max value.

Also the cash in the bank that we are accumulating is a big blocker to a sale, it's inflating the value of the core asset. If you strip out the cash what's left is the value to a big pharma and personally I believe they will not be interested certainly at todays prices.

Perhaps after a special dividend has reduced the cash holding they might be interested or actually NCYT will re-invest in the business and buy up some smaller companies and grow itself.

Certainly not telling people to sell, but emphasizing the fact that markets are efficient and the news to date in the public domain are priced into the current share price.

Or are you trying to tell me that the markets have got it all wrong??

This is a very amusing BB. So much FACT in one statement followed by a stupid share price prediction that does not add up to the FACT posted in the very same statement.

The markets are very efficient NCYT is at the shareprice it is for a reason it will only go higher when the FACTS in the public domain justify this. To date there are no FACTS that backup up £10 share price predictions.

The market knows this hence £5 has not yet been breached.

Jack rather than personally attack posters how about you join in on the discussion with some meaningful research, discussion or debate.

I think you will find that most on this BB will hear and discuss a well thought out argument backed up with some legitimate research.

Trek,

Do you post on ADVFN? There is a poster there nobbygnome he is very clued up on the science of all this might be worth asking him the same questions he might be able to help.

Hi Trek, Lp,

Apologies if I came across blunt in my previous post I must confess I didn’t read back too far through the conversation and was slightly inaccurate in my information.

As the link I posted confirms the criteria is <24hrs from verified infection not the 24-48hrs I stated from memory.

Alas I cannot shed any further light on this and I concede this could mean that there is some variability as to how long the patients have had the virus.

What I do know is there is a very good reason we have gone it alone on this trial the CEO said it is the quickest route to approval.

Having complete control over the trial means we can cherry pick the patients, setting strict entry requirements and being selective will ensure we have the best possible chance of building the statistical result we require. If we where less selective we would probably have to test larger numbers to get the conclusive result.

This is why the likes of the recovery trial have reached 1000’s of recruits and I assume we are still filling our 100.

I agree with the comments that our drug may be most effective pre-emptively but I believe the CEO raised this to make potential suitors aware that it has a wide ranging scope.

Lastly I welcome a well rounded discussion this bb has been an accommodating space with some good research.

This is why a sticky functionality would be useful to remind people or guide new investors.

Anyway for those not aware here is the details of the trial.

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001023-14/GB

If you read the trial documentation it specifically lists entry criteria as confirmed viral infection within 24-48hrs.

We are being very selective about who we put on the trial which is why it may take longer to fill. This is being done to ensure we get the best results possible that favour the drug.

I was thinking more for the benefit of new comers.

If only LSE had a sticky functionality so many good posts from the past few weeks which unfortunately will got lost in the mess that is to come on this bb

You have me to thank for the rise guys I sliced a few earlier! Impeccable timing as always....