The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The only thing more unfathomable than the incompetent/destructive behaviours of the founding family here is the willingness of some on here to look past it and see positives.
The lesson of the last couple of years is that no assurances from the Bod an be trusted (incl, imho, the "imminent" VAT refund) until backed by evidence. None is ever forthcoming. Perhaps the long trailed VAT refund will arrive next week, the co will turn cash +ve, and the SP will rise eventually back over 1. Perhaps.
Otoh, perhaps a thinly denied raise will give enough cash to struggle on for a few more months, perhaps the VAT refund will turn ou to be less than promised, . Perhaps our new NED wasn't privy to everything, and/or failed to do enough DD b4 purchasing.
i can't fathom it ; the +ve side simply doesn't match the history. the -ve side accords perfectly with the pasty, but seems almost too surreal to be true. Whatever the truth is, the uncertainty means no new investor in his right mind is going to take a punt here without a LOT of DD, far more than is publicly available to investors.
Now why would a cash strapped company use scarce resources on appointing a second broker, I wonder?
I find it hard to see a +ve side to that. The NED share purchase looked to be a good sign, but with this following on its heels, I cannot fathom what's going on. And still no news on the "imminent" VAT refund from 7 March.
Is the NED as far out of the loop as we are? Given the history of governance here nothing can surprise me any more.
Certainly very +ve news, a NED showing confidence. He can't know anything we don't re VAT refund, one would hope, cos that would be blatant insider trading. Nevertheless, one wonders.
Still, given the history here, think I'll want to see more concrete newsb4 risking any cash in TGR.
Next news here will be likely from the drilling, with from the RNS 29 Feb " a total of 800 metres of Diamond Core drilling planned to be completed in March" How long for results, and how significant? Mb mid to late April?
"This will be followed up mid-March with a 40 hole Reverse Circulation ('RC') drilling campaign covering 6,000m, expected to take approximately 10 weeks." So, finished end May, reslts in july, or mb earlier in stages?
Make your own call on these ; but it appears to me that we are in for a news free month or so, at least. Normally for early stage miners that means SP drift, tho of course there's always the unforeseen.
Pretty much as expected, imv.
Huge scale, mineralogy and process routeshould be simple and cheap, but crucially, it is unproven at scale due to lack of comparable mineralogy in other deposits.
So pilot plant needed, 2 year timescale. Funding of that to be determinedonce specced.
All of this is what you would expect from RNSs so far, as far as i can see.
Fre1
"· Recent meetings with the Madagascar Government for the release of VAT refunds of c. $2m have further added confidence that these will be returned to the Company imminently;"
That was on 7 March. Iminently, to me, means any day now. The problem is, the co has no credibility on forecasting cash , bcos previous confidence has been shown to be misplaced. So i have little confidence in that statement, now almost 2 weeks old.
Perhaps an RNS will land tomorrow saying it's in the bank....at that point, w can all get out the flags and start to take some of the production/revenue forecasts seriously.
But until that time, I'm not holding my breath.
Yes, i know. But why RNsS such pretty insignificant news? Seems like a desperate attempt to put out anything +ve, no matter how minor.
It's the spate of +ve comments on here I'm flabbergasted by, treating this mildly +ve announcement as if it had any real significance. It doesn't.
What planet are you guys living on?
FFS, surely anyone here must realise by now that all these supposedly +ve RNSss mean little compared to the pressing question of CASH. No mention of that, of course, and any initial small amounts from this sale will likely be months away in any case.
Market has to notice soon that at EOL of mine there's gonna be more net cash thamn Mcap, with life extension, Douts PFS, and lithium thrown in.
https://x.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1768610668020695357?s=20
Prospector
I think most PIs OVERestimate the likelihood of the catalysts you quote. No 1, ". The potential surprise large investor /mining major taking a position. ", is the dream that rarely happens....not an investment reason.
Most if not all of the others are just part of the pathway, whic i am sure most of us are aware of.
Interesting post from AGEOS, my thanks.
So there ARE proven processes,tho not the industry norm bcos titanite is not normall present in viable commercial quantities.
in my post of 6 March i opined that "Given the innate conservatism both of industry generally, and investors/financiers in particular, it's my fear that all relevant parties will be looking for EEE to provide proof of concept and economics before true value gets recognised here.Given the need to raise several $$ms later this year to finance that, and the tough market we are in for early stage companies, we have a rocky year ahead, SP wise. "
i think this is likely still the case. Financiers hate to finance novely, and settled industries can also be reluctant.
So despite AGEOS' post I hold to my guess that whilst this will come good, we need to see a robust PFS at a minimum to build confidence and drive the SP.
All imho, others are of course available, dyor, etc.
Just punting in the dark here as i got out a long time ago, but.....much talk of this now very, very, overdue VAT refund.
Given the history here of poor governance with late accounts, etc, clearly the gfinance function is less robust than is ideal.
How sure can shreholders be that this VAT refund will be forthcoming at all? Is it disputed by govt?
Given all the other failures and mishaps with finance i don't have much faith in it.
So, gradually, we learn the implications of scale processing of a mineral not previously bulk mined. we need to be much, much better informed about potential issues like this to make an assessment of investor returns here.
It certainly looks like the next few days could see a substantial sike, but let's see what emergeds from the meeting. It could put all ( or most!) doubts to rest, or raise new ones, as here. Ho hum.
Solstace
Right at the end SB says that the process of "putting the pilot plant together" will happen in 2025. Other comments in that and other interviews all point to only basic design starting in 2024, with full design, procurement, etc, in 2025. Add to that let's say 3 to 6 months operation, minimum, before the process can be said to be "proven" technically and commercially and you arrive at a rough date of mid 2026, imv.
It appears that refining product from titanite is a relatively unproven process, not in use at any scale within the industry. Given the innate conservatism both of industry generally, and investors/financiers in particular, it's my fear that all relevant parties will be looking for EEE to provide proof of concept and economics before true value gets recognised here. Given the need to raise several $$ms later this year to finance that, and the tough market we are in for early stage companies, we have a rocky year ahead, SP wise.
I have little doubt that the process will be proved, and that at some point EEE will be valued at many times today's. But But the reaction over the last 2 sessions seems to me to indicate that markets at the moment have little appetite for shares like this until they are much closer to production, aside from ST specculation.
It will be interesting to se what AGEOS has to say at some point about the technical side, but from a stack market PoV, it could be a long wait here.
Let me say that i have no technical experise here from a mining perspective, and am no stock market guru either. , so DYOR, etc, but i have reluctantly taken my stake off the table for now. Might be a big mistake, but capital preservation remains the priority for me, and if i miss out so be it.