Member Info for GekkoGordon

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Don't think you've taken into account the fact that DNA2's debt is held in the form of bonds issued in the US, which would have to be restructured in the event of a payment holiday etc.. I don't think Emirates would want that kind of publicity. Also if you look at the details of the lease, Emirates need to return the planes in absolutely tip-top condition or face a $12m fee per plane for half-life re-delivery. In light of this I could see Emirates either continuing to fly them (it's one of the only airlines who has been able to operate the plane profitably) or keep them for spare parts.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

A more robust recovery to Feb levels than I'd expected.

Didn't see it on my screens

"Argentina’s government is finalizing an agreement with a group led by BlackRock Inc. and a handful of large U.S. investment firms to restructure about $65 billion in foreign debt and resolve the country’s third sovereign default in 20 years, said people involved in the talks."

Or just one of those days?

Both valid points

But it says they are a "US" funder. Although Burford's business is very US-focussed, I'm not sure it can be described as a "US funder". I work in the private funds industry and can confirm there has been a proliferation of large hedge funds getting into this space. Could be one of those

A really really excellent bull case for Burford. One thing I have issue with is the author extrapolating past returns. I don't think 24% IRRs will be sustainable given the number of new firms/funds moving into this space - competition will erode those away to an extent over the long term. Nevertheless, a very compelling case for significant upside from where we are now.

I think this is one where you have to take a step back and ask yourself: will passenger traffic ever recover? If (like me) you think in 10 years the world will have moved on and you'll have regional jets whipping back and forth across India and Africa as well as legacy European, Asian, and US travel then at current prices I think you'll likely see >15% FCF yields on MGGT. In the meantime, I'm just pinching my nose and buying... even though it hurts.

I think what's important is it's not as bad as expected and a key piece of information is that they expect to be free cash flow positive for the year as a whole which given the circumstances is pretty remarkable.

Still not delighted they sold that training business when it seems they had ample liquidity anyway.

Not sure I see this as good news

Part of me wonders whether it's Wirecard-related. I think a few other stocks that have been accused of accounting irregularities also took a beating (please do not take this as me implying the accusations have merit in Burford's case).

Seems strange to me. I would have thought most skittish investors would have left BUR by now given the ride we've had, yet it takes a clattering with every fresh bout of volatility. Potentially heavily retail-owned at this point but even so...

His first post on this platform was 16th of June yet he's talking like he's a long-term TB follower and sycophant. The man is clearly Thomas Browne. Very strange behaviour indeed.

@TB. Yes, agree could be a potential bolt-on for a larger player. I know of a number of groups who have already done this (e.g. Fortress Investment Group and Vannin Capial - albeit under slightly tumultuous circumstances).

I guess bolt-ons from Burford would involve them looking for funders in new jurisdictions? Or perhaps other platforms like Vannin?

A lot of hedge funds are currently making moves into litfi. Although on the one hand this spells more competition within the space, it could also create opps for Bur to buy up portfolios of less well-resourced platforms.

time.will.tell - Blackstone does not have a similar asset class focus. It's mainly focussed on real estate, standard private equity, and hedge funds.

I give up on this discussion ThomasBrowne, I don't think you've read what I've written.

Good luck to you and to all

Not that it is relevant to what's being discussed, Warren Buffet has invested in some very highly levered companies, so I wouldn't use him as a counter-example.

Futhermore, the ways Burford raises capital is very straightforward - equity, debt, and third party investments.

I'm not saying Burford will need debt, but it will always have debt. I suggest you look at the differential between ROE and ROA for Burford to get a sense of why that is

I know what you're saying @thomasbrowne but it's just wrong. Fundamentally misunderstanding how corporate finance works.