Member Info for Gassy

Fair enough PS. I think the big deal about Ph1 is that it gives cashflow credibility that makes Ph2 more credible. Ph2 unlocks Tendrara. I have no doubt there is huge value to be had after that, just not for Sound. I believe Graham’s game plan is to make Tendrara real and sell out when he is in a stronger position so he can negotiate a fair share of the value for Sound. To get 3rd party finance for exploration is impossible. That makes deal value for exploration potential very low. Get cash going and the world looks different for Sound.

Indeep on timeframe: here is for hoping and what is possible: FID for microLNG still requires the definitive LNG GSA. There has been ample time to work this but my guess it will take a week or two and I think everything else is ready for signature and FID.
on Phase2 all technical work is complete FEEDs, access, permits. A definitive GSA should be close so I believe that a fully funded version of Sound would have all tenders done and contracts ready to sign and be ready for FID in a month or two.
For Sound things are more complex. I suspect they not only have frustrated investors but also parters and perhaps contractors in the wing. It should really be a bigger company taking this on. I think it will be all about momentum and hope FID will be worked in parallel with a transition. Later this year - otherwise it gets even harder.
Just my guess - RNSs will reveal (or not as the case may be)

some bumps in the road.. Last year when the bond holders did not approve the deal, the share price tumbled from 4p so I was expecting to get back at that level even though there has been more progress in the meantime. For what it's worth i expect some transition points over time:
1 - no bond deal; fire sale - this has been avoided
2 - microLNG FID ; anywhere between 5-10p. This gives credibility to the pipeline development
3 - Horst plant / pipeline project FID 15p+
That would be a good point to sell out to a bigger player along with the exploration acreage as sweetener.
Quite some hurdles to cross to get there but many pieces have already been lined up.

PS - have a proper look at the graph; I can see why you make that observation but you are incorrect. Nil in 2021, 5 mmscfd in 2022, 10 mmscfd in 2023 and thereafter. 2023.

Indeep and SP have more discipline than I have. I don’t want to recognise my huge paper loss and think it is worth the gamble to stay on. Whatever has been sold is gobbled up so I am not alone.

Nice place to work? Graham has been in the chair since Feb last year

oil drum: spot on. Everything that can go wrong has been priced in. Worst case scenario, there will be someone willing to take over at the current market cap + liabilities.

That’s not the impression I got from what i have seen. I think Graham was pretty clear on the challenges and how to address them. The tax claim came from left field so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. December will tell - not clear what pduk and ps2000306 know that is not in the public domain

ivans; why next week? Is there a specific trigger?

The Q4 presentation is up. If i am not mistaken that just happened. Browsed through it and i can’t see any surprises.

ST123: I really don’t care about all of these quarrels but an inaccurate quote is out of order

Agree Ericnat.
Today’s RNS shows long term confidence by the bond holders. Great deal for them if Sound becomes a success. Disaster if not - they are both very much in the know and risk averse.
RNS makes me more positive about sound’s future

The message i got out of this: tax issue will drag on, bond negotiation in background, Sidi Moktar seismic delayed because of COVID and the main development being progressed. The key message is that the mini LNG project is still on track with the GSA, EPC and finance agreements all to be closed simultaneously- still expected in Q4 this year.

The sales episode was the murkiest one for me. An extensive process by a reputable iBank with 20 or so selected companies resulted in a preferred bid by a company that then got disqualified. The value you quote is hence a dodgy bid of Sound.

Thanks for sharing the link BShorts. Makes success count so much more than just a raise in share price.

Strange indeed - looks like someone gobbled up 400,000 shares and took advantage of the dip. Should get news in the next couple of weeks

Agree - he was talking about a target value to shareholders he has in mind in deal conversations.. Wonder what that would be..

With all the chancers around, Sound needs to try and regain a healthy and credible plan. I see all the things done over the last months exactly as that. We can only speculate what’s playing out in the background.

If I sum up sentiment on this bill board it was buy, buy, buy when the share price was 80p. Now that the share price is 2p, the sentiment is very much sell, sell, sell. Crowd wisdom on this bill board leads to pretty bad results.

enlighten us - something to do with the SEC filing?