Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
I very much doubt that what we post on here is going to have much impact on a £2 billion market cap company and I'm very comfortable with my position, given the actual profit that the company makes! I don't expect future guidance to be pretty when it comes.
From the March trading update - T4B sales of £1,191 million compared to £1,198 million for the previous year, a fall of 1% in business sales. So as I stated in my last post, business passenger sales were weakening even before Covid came along. Personally I find it hard to see business passenger numbers ever recovering to previous levels, as many businesses have now seen that it is possible to hold some meetings online rather than face-to-face. I also expect the consumer market to continue to be weak until such time as people once again feel safe to travel on trains.
I'm happy to continue running my short, having banked some already on the ones I had from over 500p. Hard to see business passenger numbers recovering any time soon, if they ever do, and those were already dropping even prior to Covid. It seems to be valued purely as a tech business, but I find it hard to see the tech being that valuable to another party, especially at the moment. Guidance is also unlikely to be very positive when results do come.
Likely to see continued drag on the share price until JPM have finished selling down their holding - which they seemed to acquire from Ninety One UK at the time of the Investec demerger and the subsequent listing of that company in the U.K. and South Africa with JPM as their ‘sponsor’. The good thing is that they seem to be selling in an orderly fashion rather than dumping, but could mean it goes on for a while.
Rule 8 companies have to have an agreed investing policy in place, which will also often includes their target sectors. I was just pointing out that NUOG can reverse into any business, as a Rule 15 cash shell
I think it is the other way round - a Rule 8 investing company has to stick to its agreed investing policy (including the sector it intends to invest in). Whereas a Rule 15 shell can reverse into anything?
Unfortunately I suspect we will end up seeing another LMI situation with a very dilutive rights issue at best - in the past I had thought this might have the potential to recover, but given diamond prices and reduced free cash flow projections for Project 2022, that is looking far less likely for equity holders. The problem is that at this market cap they will struggle to raise a meaningful amount of money anyway, even with an RI. Its not even necessarily that safe for bond holders either, as in the event of a default, the BEE would retain their stake of the business/assets under South African law as far as I can see. Always a chance that someone else would want the mines - but all depends if they decide to just wait it out and possibly pick them up cheaply in a worst case scenario for Petra.
Personally I think you are getting well ahead of yourself if you are valuing their investment in Native Antigen at £100 million, considering it was £2.7 million as at last summer - in spite of the fact that it is involved with coronavirus, exactly how that translates into profitability etc is yet to be determined.
I've been having a look at this one and have taken a few - may add more but not piling in whilst a seller is dumping at pretty much any price they can get! Not convinced by the coronavirus link as the actual investment in that company is relatively small so can't see it having that much impact on a £100 million market cap company. But ignoring that, the market cap now seems to to be trading at around 60% of the value that I have NAV at (38p per share assuming fair value was paid for NVM). I'd expect some discount as stakes in these private cos might not be easy to realise at anywhere near book value if they were to be sold, but still seems like a sizeable discount and at least worth a go from this share price level with a bit of patience.
I'm surprised that they haven't RNS'd the latest Jubilee situation with the work completed and the field back to producing 90kbopd gross - as per the Kosmos Energy update today. They seem to be very slow with this sort of thing recently - same with the Peru drill result which was known a good few days prior to an RNS from this company, as it had already been reported elsewhere! Although maybe not such a bad thing the way the markets acted today, if they do end up announcing it late, preferably on a day when oil is at least having some sort of bounce!
I haven’t really got one as think it is unlikely the whole company will be sold - all comes down to what someone would offer anyway, and what would be accepted by shareholders. If Kenya FID is still likely for 2020 - as was recently mentioned - it could help achieve a decent valuation for the bit that is being sold, especially with Total also selling some of their share at the same time.
You need to add net debt to the market cap - as that is what anyone would be taking on if they launched a takeover bid. Personally I see a takeover as very unlikely, especially by Total given the comments by the CEO, but asset sales (whole or part) - Kenya and Uganda - will certainly improve the situation here.
Yes saw that earlier and partly explained the weakness, alongside Total CEO comments. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.oedigital.com/amp/news/475509-karoon-s-peru-well-hits-non-commercial-gas-volumes-drilling-continues
BT being a good example of that - there was fraudulent activity at its Italy operation, but didn’t mean the whole company was a fraud! The risk here is that there are some major skeletons that are uncovered, and the fact that it has already dropped a lot doesn’t mean that the market won’t react badly to any negative news, at least in the short term.
Adzy, what has changed your mind since Dec 19, when shortly after the company issued a response to the MW report you posted that this would bounce back to 2,350p? Looking at your posting history your opinion since then seems to have changed as often as the weather, depending on if you’re in or out! Interesting gap in your posting history as well, given that you set this account up in 2010!
Purely a theory that makes sense to me - plus of course they won’t be the only ones leveraged here and the share price movement suggests to me a lot of leveraged traders are taking big gambles and getting hit, which then causes a snowball effect (opposite to what we have seen at Tesla in recent days/weeks where it is the leveraged shorts that have been hit). I bought some at 705p purely as a recovery trade as have done well on some of these in the past - PFC for example after the bribery scandal, and more recently MTRO around 185p which I still hold. There is of course always the risk that it can go totally wrong - but even Muddy waters don’t seem to be calling it a complete fraud, more questioning accounting practices (wouldn’t be the first time that has been an issue with a FTSE co - look at BT Group in Italy, for example) - if the problems were viewed as terminal I would have expected the shorts to have kept their positions until after the independent report. Just my view of course and I don’t know all the ins and outs of this share like some of you do!
Purely speculation on my part, but the drop to me looks like forced selling - I could be wrong but I don’t see the content of the review leaking, and if it did then volume would surely have been higher! Where leveraged positions are being used - and not just by the Emirati major holders but others via CFDs/SBs etc, things can snowball downwards quickly. If it was purely based on the review and concerns other Muddy Waters allegations, it seems strange that it has chosen now to drop to these lows, rather than doing so sooner.