focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Https://t.co/8XyOIcITbq
youtube.be/uYBEDLBUEgg
The Assay, 9 days back.
There KM gave the same reason for ML delay - bringing in more area to licence - but then anticipated a delay of 'a month or two". From 4m 30.
Now looks to have gone behind their pay wall.
I noted KM reiterating the reason for the now predicted putting back of the receipt of the final Mining Operating Permit Grant. Mid 24 he said AIR, previous was 1-2 Qs earlier. Otherwise a very positive interview.
Https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/energy/solar-investment-to-outpace-oil-first-time/index.html
To be effective solar needs accompanying BESS..... a large amount.
You never know, could actually trigger a sentiment somersault.......
We'll see.
A 6 month period from MINCOM grant given to operating licence given that is.
Though many observers see the permitting and subsequent FID as the trigger point for the derisk value accretion event here, permitting is not a point event, it has 4 stages. From a recent pressy:
'Permitting Process
1,
ML Grant (MINCOM)
2,
EPA Environmental ML
3,
parliamentary ratification
4 - final,
Mining operating permit grant.'
In various interviews with ALL that estimated to be around a 6 month process and now strongly flagged as becoming complete by end q4.
I would expect the value accretion to also pick up with the passing of the licensing milestones. First any day!
From conclusion
"Atlantic has a committed partner in Piedmont and
has limited funding needs; if a downstream customer
wants Atlantic’s offtake rights, it will likely need to
bid outright for the company or pay full market price
for the spodumene.
My battery-grade chemical supply-demand models
forecast continued tightness, which will likely worsen
over time and reach severe levels as Atlantic achieves
fully ramped production (2026 onwards).
In my opinion, Atlantic securing a mining permit in
late 2023 for the Ewoyaa project will be a major
catalyst for a re-rating.
Given the exceptional infrastructure available
to Atlantic and the low capex/opex, I believe
receiving a mining permit and a positive final
investment decision would essentially de-risk the
project, and a P/NPV10 valuation ratio of 0.8x
would be justified. Using that valuation metric,
the fair value of Atlantic on a fully diluted basis
is between £0.94 - £1.13/share with a blue-sky
upside target of £1.26/share."
On production 10 to 15p divi per year for ALL by my reckoning.
Released
https://rkequity.com/assets/articles/rh/2023/Atlantic%20Lithium%20Limited%20-%2024%20May.pdf
Very much doubt any significant new money will be taking shares here until there is actual progress published on permitting. With continuing steady unloading from the 'seller' any rises from the present low level buying will be capped.
Tedious, but patience required. Ewoyaa's spodumene becomes more valuable daily.
With Ford's extensive supply grab yesterday.
The US is rapidly creating the end to end lithium supply chain it will have to have to achieve independence. However the US OEMs will have no choice but to look beyond their borders for upstream lithium supply in very large part. It has already been signaled here that the Ewoyaa DFS will propose production well above previous feasibility, this should grow Atlantic's uncommitted SC6 allocation to some 180kt/y, that's some 30kt/y LCE.
Though lithium pricing has come back from extraordinarily highs, in the West hydroxide and carbonate still remain at high levels of $40 to 50/kg. So those OEMs who are for example short say 30kt/y of offtake for their new cathode plants the market option will cost them $1500m/y and that price will be volatile.
I sense here a deal will be spicing up the already transformative news flow mix soon to come.
Https://twitter.com/AtlanticLithium/status/1660500154393444352?s=20
Analysis on ALL, not released from a pay wall yet.
Will this move the needle?
Think I may grab some Monday am.
I don't tend to act on charting but because many follow there is often an element of self reinforcement following a 'signal '.
However I see two overlapping pennants have developed bounded by: 1, down trend resistance from April 22, 66p to today 33p, 2, up trend support from March 23, 3, short duration down trend resistance starting from 2nd week in April . They are intersecting now.
Will this herald a breakout? ...And if so in what direction.
GLA.
Philips: Tennessee permitting this.
Not Ewoyaa but regardless an important milestone as looks as Tennessee will be wanting feedstock to plan from Ewoyaa. Every incentive for the players to get it up and running ASAP.
Amongst all expected Atlantic news q2/3 also anticipate off take for large part of unassigned Ewoyaa production. Large scale giga factory commitments in NA now, feedstock squeeze only to get more severe, US ev sales up 70%.
Near end:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6327743265112
"A11 ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.
New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.62
Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -
Wilsons has hired a new analyst and initiated coverage on Australian lithium companies. The obvious observation is to refer to the -50% drop in Chinese prices in 2023, which allows for three positive initiations out of five.
We're in this for the long haul, Wilsons exclaims, let's not get sidetracked by short term sentiment and stocking cycles!
The key sentence that explains it all: "we remain principally focussed on the longer term structural thematic drivers, and are confident that the low-carbon energy transition will drive expected compounding deficits in supply over the coming decades, which will underpin robust pricing over the longer term."
Wilsons initiates coverage of Atlantic Lithium with an Overweight rating and price target of $1.10.
This report was published on May 8, 2023.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.475
If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June"
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/05/12/australian-broker-call-extra-edition-may-12-2023/
There are 3 posters here all with a similar agenda. They all also have their posting history unaccessible.
Why is this?
Hi.
If management were shortsighted they could indeed easily cash in today with large gains for them by agreeing to one of the many informal offers of interest already received. With acceptance from IIs and just 7% of retail they could sell out at 50p, 70p if they were thinking that way. Thankfully for those instead here looking for sustained madium/longterm and large gains over many years and not a fast buck that presently would never be more than a bag (a 5 bag before getting DFS, all MLs and that also would have to be pre Peidmont's FID and 1/2 share buy-in is fantasy imo), management clearly want to be the joint owners as they take this to production. I expect the FID and buy-in to coincide with the final part of the ML. Once that happens no hostile t/o can work without taking both cos.
With present and ever growing spodumene demand I see little prospect of pricing over many future years being less than today's ~4k. Agree N2S, excellent divi potential ahead here, reckon 15, 20p/y with the existing plan and that pricing.
I see Peidmont as more probable as a target than Atlantic from their strategic position being rapidly built up in the US. This could change the deal.
We'll see.
The bigger picture is becoming interesting.
Lowry on this merger:
'Creat a slow moving asset heavy, execution light major '
https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1656228391379431426?s=20
Slowing up the supply of new lithium from larger more powerful producers then! All adds to the deficit driven supercycle future for miners.
.
Worth a read as we wait
https://aheadoftheherd.com/all-signs-point-to-the-early-stages-of-a-new-commodity-supercycle-richard-mills/