focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
:-)
MIIF shares were at 20p and listed LSE/ASX. Ghana investors pay secondary market price and transfer to GSE. No new issue shares with GSE listing.
"High-grade and broad extensional drill intersectons reported at the new Dog-Leg target, outside of the current
35.3Mt @ 1.25% Li2O JORC (2012) compliant Ewoyaa Mineral Resource Estmate1 (“MRE” or the “Resource”),
including highlights at a 0.4% Li2O cut-off and a maximum 4m of internal diluton of:
GRC0177: 27m at 1.85% Li2O from 126m
GRC1059: 15m at 1.08% Li2O from 126m
GRC1058: 8m at 0.93% Li2O from 88m
- Results at Dog-Leg are significant; drilling has intersected shallow dipping, near surface mineralised pegmatte
bodies with true thicknesses up to 35m outside of the MRE1 , proving potental for significant resource growth.
- Assay results reported include a total of 3,177m of plant site sterilisaton drilling completed, as part of the planned
2024 programme, with no mineralisaton intersected, providing confidence in the proposed plant site locaton.
- MRE upgrade, for both lithium and feldspar, to incorporate all drilling completed in 2023 and so far in 2024, now
targeted for mid-year."
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/A11
Https://youtu.be/57diWA7n4to?si=3Q79nNWcRSo8BLzF
Way things are going China offtaker has to be the right decision for Atlantic. Despite the scepticism and lobbying the world is going ev.
Piedmont's FID is the sp kicker here aisi. It's go or stop with that. Atlantic would either have to crushingly dilute or relinquish far more than half of Ewoyaa to get the mine up and running without Piedmont's ~130m contribution.
For the FID to happen it now looks like they are taking the same route with their share of production as Atlantic are, go to the only buyers in town, China. To get some up front cash it looks like they also now need.
This I see as the big uncertainty ahead that keeps this sp suppressed, the other oft towted milestones ahead are basically a given now.
We'll see, it's a tough market out there
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/four-key-takeaways-from-fastmarkets-asian-battery-raw-materials-conference-2024/
That should be: Concentrate suuply shortfall vs demand ahead is obvious.
China in the early years while the US and Europe fanny.
Tennessee will be late, Tesla and LG are fully supplied from NAL? It looks more probable all Ewoyaa sc6 will go to China then.
That Piedmont where saying they did not want to dilute and that NAL sales have provided little cash flow was putting a cloud over whether Piedmont might delay the Ewoyaa capex FID was my thinking on why so much down pressure on the ALL sp. This decision to follow Atlantic down the up front cash for capex off take route solves that. Only game in town?
Concentrate demand shortfall ahead is obvious.
Onward.
More on Ewoyaa from 31.45.
First on Ewoyaa from 3.25 in.
Piedmont proposing their own offtake for their share of product.
https://youtu.be/uVjMlfggkzY?si=kAmRNYK2ymGp_-W7
The alternative to an offtaker getting more favourable pricing for providing funds in advance of delivery with a multi year deal is that their cash buys assets at the deal point in time, eg as Piedmont did. Atlantic have not ever mooted this possibility (which would obviously be dilutive to holders) afaict.
Whatever, getting this finance is paramount to project success. A massive risk eliminated.
Any potential offtaker will get a discount for providing up front cash. Commod deals I've seen over the years ranged from around 1/4 off to 2/3rds dependent on many factors. Hopefully Atlantic achieve a small discount as it's not long to delivering.
Inevitable the early years bottom line will be hit compared to them getting unencumbered pricing. An example:
SC6 spot 1600, aic 800, deal size 100k/y over 5y, cash up front 60m.
Customer discount say 40% - ie for paying say 60m up front they get 100m off the spot over 5y. 20m/y ie pay 1400/t simplistically that will cut 1/4 off cash flow. That impact highly dependent on spot price. Many variations possible.
A deal should be on av good for valuation but a poor deal for Atlantic could be negative. They won't!!
Be a while then! Listing not till Q3
https://www.adomonline.com/atlantic-lithium-submits-application-to-list-on-gse/
With Tianqi, Ganfeng and SIGMA's doubling down down pressure on Atlantic today is no surprise.
The terms rather than who will be the big determinatior on the price reaction I reckon. To get 70 to 100m up front for a 500k supply dealwill mean either a decent discount to spot or a bargain fixed price for the offtaker, or a mix? How much will have a big impact on Atlantic's earnings over the 5 years of the deal.
I hope a decent amount will have a floor price that gives profit.
Looking forward
Https://youtu.be/dCorcsoYqyE?si=vuEmx-BbZKS6xVkI
Inciteful listen.
Https://youtu.be/i5moqnhHSE8?si=u55rF6eqT_Hoosb2
From 36 20 for Piedmont and some on Ewoyaa. Opinion: present LCE pricing makes Tennessee difficult....but also it is to rise.
Bit of a trend?
https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-lithium-carbonate-futures-surge-as-another-environmental-storm-looms