Quick valuation (personal opinion)24 Mar 2009 10:36
A private company in this business would sell at around 5-7 x net (LY HRG presented approx 17 million before dividend and 6 miliion after dividend). As the dividend would have been covered by the debt anyway, if we take the 6 million net x 7 times (high end of the valuation multiple I mentioned), this would indicate a company valued at 42 million (without factoring in any deterioration in this years results). As the market capitalisation is currently around 49 million plus a debt of 100 million the sp is currently supporting an overvaluation of 107 million. If the share price reduced to 3.5 again, it would have a market value of 10.77 million plus 100 million debt (still, in my opinion 68 million over market value). I am not being negative, but pragmatic, as I feel that many are looking at this share with rose coloured glasses. I feel that I judged an exit at just short of 18p well and I question the judgement of anyone stakebuilding at that level.
Of course I have not factored in future increase in sales or profit growth and the value of synergies for any purchaser.