The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I think it makes sense, would you rather have your capital in energy companies in Europe or the US right now? Long term the divergence is an opportunity for anyone with extra cash however I do see there is a nasty little gap on the daily priced at 1630 on 31/12/2021 which will likely close at some point.
Ah I see now that you wrote that they were probably exercised but never sold and were then caught in the long downwards decline.
How can you get burnt on a share save scheme? They are essentially a risk free options trade ignoring for opportunity cost, if you don't hit your price you don't exercise and take your cash back.
MS clearly coming for its call options, I wonder if they can be exercised early or only at expiration.
Also oil businesses need additional capital to invest in their transition. The best way to raise capital is for the cartel to agree to limit supply and raise prices. It's not clear what options oil dependent nations will have in the future although solar would be a fairly good bet so they also will want to cash in if they sense the end is encroaching.
It's not bearish until its below 130, until then its simply retracing. Think like a MM if you smell volume when someone is buying you run the price. If MS have calls tank the price and collect the premium. Who knows MS may even defend their calls buying the ask. It took 75 trading days to go from 122 to 206 at an average of 1.12 a day. If MS start next week they can reach 189 before their 180 calls expire Dec 17th.
I don't think BT is in bear market territory yet. I'm disappointed I did not see the technicals more clearly earlier. IMO BT is headed sub 140 to around 135. It's a price that completes a few nice moves. A 61.8 retracement of the initial run from 98.7 to 206.7. It back tests the daily down trend that began circa December 2018. If this truly is the first wave in a weekly elliot wave formation the upside for BT in the next 5 will boggle the mind. If the dividend get's confirmed in the next month it could easily put a floor under the price which at 140 is a 5.5% ROI. Dividends go up not down until they get slashed. Expect consistent dividend growth for a few years to support the SP. It's a very typical move when a new board lock in their incentives, the board have locked in their compensation during a painful period for BT, they stand to gain millions in the next few years.
Very interseting, I wonder if the call position is used as a proverbial gun to the head. Keep BT's price down at your expense by selling or we will pick up 4.6% and if you do sell in order to destroy our call position we will but your shares anyway.
Who cares if they want to create a discount, that's absolutely fine. Only short term holders will be concerned, anyone building a position should be thankful for such reports and simply partake in exactly what they are doing.
It looks as if the share buy backs have halted for now, no RNS since 28th September.
Have you been keeping a record?
Interesting reaction to the dividend payment today. Payment of 5p per share vs 24p drop in share price.
Anyone who's been a Shell Energy customer for more than a year won't return. They are simply a rebrand of the awful First Utility. The only thing Shell Energy has going for it, is it is unlikely to go bust if it has Shell's backing. They also treat customers so badly they simply bludgeon cash from them with total disregard for anything else. This is ok for shareholders in the short term, but in the long term Shell Energy will devalue the Shell brand and may have knock on affects to other parts of the business aimed at retail.
That should read, closed up following ex-dividend dates, i.e. the day after.
AUTO doesn't seem to have a very volatile response to the payment of dividends and on occasion has closed up on ex-dividend days. However the slow decline prior to the ex-dividend date imo indicates that no one is interested in the dividend and bears aren't interested in covering for it.
We are close to breaking out of the hourly decline since the peak last Thursday. A well timed positive Brexit deal headline, OPEC+ announcement or even just the opening of the US market on an "up day" might bring enough buying pressure to break out. Then it's likely we see a re-test of £13.57 and if the news build sufficiently even a run to £15.
Buy, now.
ROY C15.60 18DEC20 go BRRRRRRR
RDSB is a global supplier of oil so it's odd that you focus so heavily on a US market where they have their own significant suppliers.
Global Market
VLCC Storage
VLCC floating storage situation has improved dramatically over the past several months. Crude oil stock in stationary VLCCs has dropped from an estimated 141 MMbbls in mid-July to just over 50 MMbbls today. Annual surplus has narrowed to just +2.3 MMbbls (from +101 MMbbl in July), while the surplus relative to 5-year average has narrowed to +9.3 MMbbls (from +95 MMbbl in July). There now seems to be a bullish divergence between the WTI price level and amount of crude oil in VLCC storage (see the charts below).
I really don't care how you do DD but just a warning that your looking for confirmation bias in a US market is narrowing your view unnecessarily.
There is significant resistance at £12.11, it's a previous top and combines with the top of the bearish channel. My ROY calls seriously hope there is at least some form of fakeout to be able take profit but I suspect only strong news will push it through perhaps some sort of brexit deal would be sufficient.