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The lockdown is much softer than expected apart from the fact school are closing for three weeks. There is no impact on the French economy nor the European one. So all blue today, French market included.
I remember end of December with the positive news from Brexit and a bull run of 20% people were also talking about missing the boat. Ten days later IAG was 15% down. Targeting an entry at 170 does not seems unreal who knows.
I wasn't expecting such a positive week for this share I have to say. Bit gutted to have not enjoyed fully this recovery. However, having been invested in this bumpy share since now almost a year has taught me to keep calm and to don't follow the news flow too closely. Friday's results will be as bad as expected probably a bit worse as December has been terrible. Now the market is very positive on airlines shares this week therefore I don't think there will be much impact on the SP. However next week might be another story with negative news coming probably from Europe as the vaccination isn't efficient enough to cover the new variants increases. That could potentially change the whole perspective on the travel opening dates. This share will hit at least 220 before the summer that's as certain as the fact it will also touch 150's for a healthy dip to cover a gap opened on the 12th of Feb. Good luck all.
I'm out 100% since this morning but I aim to come back with a better entry point. It was a good two days run but I think we are going to see the SP dropping in the coming days until Friday when more info will be available concerning the cash burn situation. If this latter is better than expected I will be back in targeting 160ich as entry price. If however the cash burn isn't that improved I won't be surprised to see a negative reaction on Friday and next week we could see 150's back for a short period of time IMO. It does not change my opinion for IAG's future opportunities on its market once the situation will be back to normal. But don't forget this share is so volatile. PS: I was invested since June last year.
In my opinion today was a good opportunity for the long term shareholders as I am to sell part of their stake before this Friday results that are not going to be good at all, although this has been priced already. I agree with those who says there will be good entry points in the coming days/weeks. Today was a bit of a "we buy the rumour to sell the news". I personally sold 50% of my stake with a very small profit in order to jump back later.
Good evening everyone,
First happy new year 2021! I've been following this thread since now June last year when I first invested into IAG. Always interesting to see different opinions on a share I hold. In terms of background, I'm a French national invested in what I call quality companies across the continent and in the UK. I have a particular interest in the aviation industry and I usually hold shares with a mid-term exit strategy. To go straight to the point my average here is 169. I used the IR to average down and I consider to top up if we touch 126 again. I'm usually not a massive technical analysis fan, however here I believe it can help to set up entrance target points as well as to determine a mid-term strategy that also suits an industry fundamental analysis comparison. I wanted to share that with you guys.
In my strategy's view in terms of supports we have the following:
144 short term
126 mid term
91.5 long term
In terms of resistances we have:
171 short term
226.9 mid term
296.4 very long term note that we also have a gap at 262.
I target a 220 exit, which could happen in my opinion between April and May when the market will price the future summer earnings. Very long holder can possibly target 290 IMO.
In terms of the industry fundamentals comparison, my strategy is based on the following:
- IAG is a strong group in the industry with important liquidity and quite independent from national governments. The loan of £2B received by BA is nothing to compare with the 10B euros received by AFKLM or the 9B euros received by Lufthansa. The fact IAG decided to first make an IR also show the strength and belief in the project of their main shareholders (especially Quatar).
- IAG owns some of the most profitable routes in the world, has a quite recent and efficient fleet this later point is boosted by the COVID with the exit of the 747 and probably of the A380 for BA and the exit of the A340s for Iberia. IAG also enjoy a much more flexible HR management than AFKLM or Lufthansa.
- Iberia strategy is very interesting for the group with a new focus on Africa and Asia.
- The purchase of Air Europa at a 50% discount is excellent for the development of a low cost domestic strategy.
- People all around Europe have saved a lot of money during the pandemic and a lot of them dream about traveling. Summer 21 is expected be one of the best in terms of booking levels. Although the economic crisis will eventually strike many of us, next summer will be an oasis in a middle of a long crisis.
Everyone here is on the same boat with different strategies. The most important is to believe in your own. It's going to be bumpy one as it has been for the last nine months but at the end if you stick to a strong money management and determine exit and entry points and stick to it, that should be a very good investment at the end.
Apologises for my English as I'm not a native English speaker, however I hope this is still reada