Member Info for Franalex

No but it had a host of individuals certain that it would not go under and the the price would rocket once the bid came in and some are on this board.

Time will tell. I was right on Debenhams.

I think the longer this goes on the less potential upside exists in the share price. I originally thought that 30p would be more than sufficient to get the company but now think it could be much less. It is quite possible that the delays are caused by the BoD wanting to unveil a comprehensive long term financial strategy and balance sheet restructure and I would not be remotely surprised if we discover a rights issue or Debt for equity is announced at the same time as news of the airline bid. Just suspect they do not want to make a series of announcements one after another.

I get car insurance from them, for those over 50, with good insurance record driving large engined cars they were very competitive.

Precisely what looks positive? Why a blue close? You keep making the same post on several seriously troubled businesses.

Remember so many posters, some of them on this board, believing that this rule would result in Ashley paying a huge amount for Debenhams. Think a bid will come here but at nothing like the figures some are hoping for. Suspect it will be sub 30p although hope it will be higher.

Why do I think the reduced market cap and dividend will have little impact on the Board’s basic salaries and will set a lower base for long term rewards? Along with Centrica, Vodafone, BAT and many others incomes have gone up massively when the share price increases but stay at high levels when it falls. Nominee companies need to make it much easier for small shareholders to vote on these matters. It may make little difference compared the the cozy relationships with many institutional holders but may give them a perspective of how small holders feel.

Most individual holdings are held through nominee accounts which means that few take the trouble to vote on AGM issues. Whilst the big holders will always carry the vote, small shareholders could at least show their dissatisfaction. The Board continue to be extravagantly remunerated for continual value destruction. Can I suggest that holders take the trouble to find out how to vote and let the directors know of their feelings as well as just posting on boards like this.

Agree it is the directors job and they have been pretty poor but once the financial position gets to a point where the debt covenants are in jeopardy then the debt holders effectively take over. At this point shareholders pretty well have no influence as we saw recently with Debenhams and directors duties may change from acting in the best interest of shareholders to acting in the best interest of creditors, again something that happened in Debenhams. May be unpalatable to equity holders but that is the way company law works.

Comparisons with Debenhams are very helpful to those who may be being seduced into buying shares. I think it highly unlikely that the action on Debenhams will produce any beneficial outcome to shareholders, it really is clutching at straws. Things were much worse on the Afren front and that had no benefit for shareholders.

Very true. So many similarities with Debenhams and the post administration Board had some sad stories of individuals who continually averaged down in the expectation of the huge recovery that some predicted and lost a lot of money. This business is in real trouble and the owners of secured debt hold most of the cards.

Those predicting 80p share price looking as foolish as those predicting similar levels for Debenhams only a few weeks ago, and some are the same individuals. Seems that the terms of the funding are very onerous and the banks will pretty well have control. Now a huge gamble and administration must be as likely as any significant recovery. Very downbeat comment from the Board and given the desperate position nobody is going to pay more than absolutely necessary for the airline.

Very true and if anyone thinks it can not go into administration, and wipe out current shareholders, they are very foolish. The Debenhams Board and Carillion Board was full of posters saying that they could never go under, just days before the event. The providers of debt will be in the driving seat and they have zero consideration for the well-being of ordinary shareholders. My gut feel is that it is not as inevitable as Debenhams but it is very high risk and falls more into a gamble rather than investment which is how I see my relatively small investment.

Says the person who only a few weeks ago was predicting increases in the share price of Debenhams.

Have never shorted a stock in my life. I fully understand that this is a different business just pointing out that on the Debenhams board people were posting some absolute rubbish predicting huge price increases, just as they were on Carillion and Afren and are beginning to here. Just warning the inexperienced to be very cautious of “get rich quick trading”

Do not do shorting but am concerned that individuals like yourself holding out as being experts are misleading inexperienced investors as happened in excess on Debenhams and before that on both Carillion and Afren to name another two I am aware of that resulted in a total loss to investors.

Those of us who could read a balance sheet realised that they did not but there were endless posts from individuals claiming that they had assets in excess of £600m (it was all, valueless intangibles). Anybody new to these boards would be well advised to read the Debenhams posts to realise that they should not be used for investment decisions. Individuals should do their own research and only invest what they can afford to lose. There are some very sad posts on the Debenhams board once it was clear shares were worthless and some had lost huge sums that they could not afford.

Suggest people look at your predictions on Debenhams in the days leading up to administration before taking too much notice of your upside forecasts.

Do not think rise anywhere near large enough for this to be the reason. We should not forget that even where is is now, it represents a massive fall from a year ago. Gut feeling is that it is being seen as oversold. It is not 9 months ago since a broker was tipping it as a buy to reverse a dip down to 75p. Most of its competitors are performing much better faced with the same market conditions.

Do learn from it. Happened to me on Marconi many years ago. Read up on how to really read a balance sheet, understand what the roles and responsibilities are and follow some shares without investing.