Member Info for Franalex

Voted yes as I firmly believe that either an alternative bidder will emerge beforehand (very unlikely) or it will fall into administration very soon after with zero to shareholders. You make your own judgements.

Truth factory. Think you are being a little generous on asset value. Intangibles generally fetch nothing neither do capitalised IT system costs. The main recoverable at a decent rate is the debtor book which usually fetches around 80/90% but suspect that in this case it is pretty low. Personally be surprised if recoverable figure was above 33% and it is also fee-fest time for lawyers. The costs these professional organisations run up with little need to justify costs is boggling.

I think we have to take at least some comfort from that. If they had found anything material they would have had to release to the market, the consequences of which on the share price would have been catastrophic, probably to a degree of suspension.

FTSE100 companies not always a safe bet or safe from volatility. NMC has recently crashed, Anglo American is very volatile and BT, Vodafone, Marks and Spencer, Centrica and the Banks have all managed to lose investors large sums of money in recent years.

Do not panic “Every share bounce back”. What total garbage. RBS, Lloyds, Patisserie Valerie, Interserve, Debenhams, House of Fraser, Serco, Intu, Carillion, Afren etc. Could you advise when each of these bounced back.

I recall similar posts about bargain shares at Intu, Metro Bank, Carillion, Interserve, Thomas Cook, and Debenhams, all in the last year. What is known here is that for a FTSE100 company it’s governance has been shocking, what is not known is if there will be a bidder and at what price as investors normally apply a discount where a business has made such a mess of corporate affairs. Still a high risk stock.

Presume that is the same £11 you were predicting yesterday. Have you ever got a prediction right as looking through this board it is full of factless, aspirational figures backed by no substance?

Alto, some of those people were also posting positively on both Sirius Minerals “oversold, Buy buy buy” at 10p, and on Thomas Cook following the drop to 15p. Newinvestors should take these price predictions with a pinch of salt. If you take the trouble to go and look at their previous price predictions you will generally find them hopelessly wrong. If it were that easy they would be on their luxury yacht somewhere warm.

Before anyone leaps into AAL they should look at its share price history. For a FTSE100 stock it is massively volatile and therefore carries a lot of risk.

Only thing I can think of is they are gambling on an administration.

Has is dawned on you that the reason there are no competing offers is that investors with large amounts of funding available, which is what is needed, do not agree with you. If it was such a bargain there would be other offers.

Plethorus. They will probably do nothing until the full report is disclosed and suspect their opening offer will be much lower. These organisations are not known for their charitable status and will only pay what they need to. It need multiple interested parties to secure any kind of decent price.

FTSEmajor Are you including the £1.6m of intangible assets in your tangible assets because these probably have little realisable value and your price predictions for today are looking as accurate as those you made last week. Ie not remotely accurate.

Not on this scale there wouldn’t be and certainly not involving Board Members. It is shocking corporate governance from individuals who have responsibility for it.

Steeplejack. Agree with you. Without the bid RNS, that devastating declaration of bad governance would probably have taken at least 30% off the share price. Could go either way and fluctuate violently.

At least the bid interest should put a floor under what would otherwise be a hugely damaging (and share price destroying) release on share holdings.

Dana, beware thinking their is a floor. Many years ago I lost more than I could afford buying more and more shares in Marconi, a giant compared to NMC which at its peak was valued at £35bn with £2bn in the bank. It’s collapse was fast and dramatic and is well documented. It was too big to go under and had too many valuable assets and government contracts. All wrong! Any new investor thinking a FTSE company cannot collapse should read this case.

Long term, agree with you on the last point. Fortunately my point of entry was low and I did think that someone else may emerge from the shadows with a higher bid but as time goes by this looks less and less likely. I think what happened at Interserve is a lesson in what happens when a deal is voted down.

That is different as they have liabilities due thereafter and may not have funds to meet them. I am merely giving my perspective on what they will be being told by the Insolvency practitioner they will already have engaged based on 20 years as a CFO and having done pre-pack deals on 3 businesses in all of which shareholders were wiped out. You may take a different view.

I fear a no vote will result in administration within hours, if not immediately. If the Anglo American deal is voted down and the directors have no other deal well advanced and their cash flow forecasts show they can not meet future liabilities as they fall due, they have no option other than to call in an administrator immediately.