RE: Lots of Upside16 Aug 2025 14:09
It will ultimately come down to bidding and what suits the top 3 plus the insiders. They hold a combined 55% and that could be more like 60% now after last few months of high volumes.
So yes... Cascabel worth well above £2 a share. But if Jiangxi pitched a bid at 60p and BHP, NMM and the rest of insiders agreed to it, then it's game over.
Infact, some would say that if Jiangxi pitched 50p a bid and got NMM's stake, then even if they failed they would have 22%+ and be firmly in control.. although BHP still the unknown. NMM's stake is important. Important to remember that BHP were doing very well a few years ago, but the last 18months have been torrid. Profits falling, resources falling, dividend falling, shareholders getting frustrated... and then there's the embarrassingly 'tone deaf' attempt to swallow up Anglo American for $49bln. Desperate times for BHP and Henry's role along with a few on BHP board being questioned now. BHP have lost their way and despite making acquisitions over last few years, the growth and profits look far off.
Buying SOLG may be exactly what they need... but after they fork out £2bln+ or more for SOLG shareholders, they then have to find about £1.5bln minimum to develop it. That combined cash requirement of $4bln+ won't show pay back for at least 4 years... possibly 3 years if they tweak PFS inc early TAM production.
If ever there was a time for the chinese to capitalise... now would be it. I'm not sure BHP are in that great of shape to be reducing the dividend only then to shell out $4bln+ on an Ecuador asset which carries risk and no near term cash flows.
So in summary, I don't think BHP would allow jiangxi to succeed with a low ball in the 30's or 40's. But I do wonder about their resolve and 'insiders' on a bid in the 50's.
Dan would be looking at £9m+ in personal profits (less tax) with an offer in 50's. Would he say no? Would Mather or Bob say no?? Would NMM say no.
It's all about the insiders but lets be fair... there are many pi's / retail that would happily take 50p+.
Then there's the Exploco... if that's spun out.. then that could be worth 10p+ early doors and 5 or 6 x that upon drill success and in theory we go again. So if exploco not included in a sale, then offers in 50's for cascabel along might be hard for all insiders to resist.
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