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I know I keep adding points here but having looked a little deeper at EZY. It would appear they have a mere £330m in cash, i feel that puts them a little further down the list in the liquidity stakes. Also they do state they can only withstand a grounding of their entire fleet for one month in peak periods. This will unfortunately last longer than one month.
Most definitely not. The company has liabilities of £77m due in the next 12 months and £247m due over the next 2-4 years. Yeah they have borrowings of circa £900m but the remainder of that amount is due to start being repaid over four years from now, not by October. That if true would be a massive issue, and even without this crisis would be a burden on any viable airline.
It’s worth noting with liquidity you also have to consider the size of the company. Just because IAG have £9bn or something in cash, doesn't make them a better prospect. That £9bn has to go a lot further. BA are going to be hit by this big time. The USA is the big unknown here. Without Business travel to the US they are going to lose money hand over fist. With regards to EZY, they have to spread their cash around a fleet that is three times the size of Jet2’s with a massive amount of employees, a great deal of liabilities, new aircraft arriving left right and centre, hence why Stelios is suggesting they cancel their orders or at least postpone (costs money) and possibly even reduce fleet size from 344 to 250 aircraft. No two airlines are the same, it’s not like comparing Sainsbury's with Tesco’s, or HSBC with Barclays. They all have their own niche markets to a certain extent.
Dart have a business model that yes, as you correctly point out runs at a slight loss in the winter. However a much much smaller loss than any competitor because you can only afford to park up airplanes, when you own them. It’s always been the way things are done there. Winters are now busier due to the demise of Thomas Cook but folk don’t foresee much of a change to their winter operating model in the immediate future.
I would be interested to peruse your liquidity table though. Ryanair, will always survive like I said in earlier posts, they are a horrible company but they don’t care about that. Wizz, unfamiliar with their finances but I know you can make money with them, they’re trading at least 50% down on highs at the moment.
I can assure you Dart have a lot more than 3/4 months of money. I also read that sipping hot water every 20 minutes cures coronavirus, doesn’t mean its true. Be careful with the negative stuff you read. It’s easy to deramp this and yes like I said earlier the swings are large, can’t refute that, makes it such a good investment. I missed the low point in the 180’s and am gutted, i’d be truly surprised to see that again. Dart was also trading where it is now a little while ago, prior to Its expansion. From speaking to people there, nobody is concerned. Like i said previously burning 333m a month, not even possible. Planes grounded but large amount of the fleet owned (they also fly very very little in the winter anyhow), even if they put all their staff on unpaid leave (not going to happen), ongoing maintenance is probably circa £2m per week for the entire fleet. Then you have rent and all the other sundries... so lets be generous and double to £4m per week, £16m per month when the company is just ticking over. Salary costs before any furlough scheme are circa £35m per month. Lets say the govt helps to the tune of £10m per month. So add it all uo and you have £41m a month after subsidies, a lot of outgoing yes, but from what I hear from people I know, the money is there to weather well in excess of 12 months. They are not going to burn £1.5bn in 3 months. My opinions here are based on myself having been in aviation for circa fifteen years and knowing people all over the industry, nothing else. When TUI dropped all their advertising slots, who jumped in to buy them? Jet2.... just saying. So this summer be prepared to see nothing else but Jet2 advertising on the TV. Amongst airlines Jet2 is seen as the unstoppable force. I don’t want to see people lose money, there is plenty here to go round, what I don’t want to see is people spouting rubbish about a company that isn't true, we all look after each other in aviation. GlobeSpan went bust on the back of rumour which caused credit card companies to withhold crucial funds, OK GlobeSpan didn't have the cash reserves that Jet2 do, but people with incorrect scaremongering opinions compounded the problem and caused a lot of upset for many people who worked there. Also, Standardlife buying into Dart in large volumes, I would like to think they would have done their due diligence in a little more depth than PI’s. I still believe there will be more drops until the industry has more certainty, but when it does you’ll see how strong a company this is.
In addition to that, yes I accept DTG has large swings, but this is no indication of how a company is placed. This is the AIM100 not the FTSE, the company doesn't pay dividends so you invest here for the rise, nothing else, and overall because you believe in what you’re investing in. Airlines are going to be the best places to make money which lets face it, can stand you in good stead for the future, you just have to pick the right one. Pharmas also right now - the right ones again. TUI for example, triple exposure, cruise liners, coronavirus and the max debacle. I know where I would rather be. At the end of the day, taking holiday’s away from the British - that will never happen, the market is massive, even after this, maybe a slower recovery yeah, but it will recover. Lack of TCX and Monarch from recent years only makes survival a more likely option. The market may have shrunk short term, but so has the supply of airlines and travel companies offering them. It’s basic economics.
Ryanair have very low staffing costs at a time like this which, besides fuel is the highest cost for any airline; nearly all their pilots are self employed so with no fuel, it’s just maintenance and leasing costs to front. Not to mention they are an Irish carrier therefore not due any form of bailout from the UK govt especially. You could say the same with BA because IAG is in fact a Spanish company. They will survive without a shadow of a doubt, but only because of their unscrupulous business practices.
I’m not here to ramp DTG, but what I am here to do is to tell all you derampers that are scaremongering this stock based on your delusional thoughts about the aviation industry a fact or two. Yes it’s a mess at the minute but what industry isn’t? You know what they say about opinions, everyone has one. However my opinion is justified being someone in the aviation and more specifically the airline industry. You can go on all you like about 737’s being expensive, yes they are but without that investment in equipment there is no company. Plus dart have very shrewdly purchased these aircraft on exceptional deals, so they are not as pricey as you think. Equally, ventilators are expensive, but without investment in them, people are dying, were seeing that right now unfortunately. The way DTG’s and specifically Jet2’s finances are geared is the envy of nearly every other airline in the UK. TUI UK amongst others and Virgin specifically could only dream of such a strong balance sheet. They have not asked for government help because they are viable and do not need it. Mark my words, when this is over you will have seen airlines fail, maybe ones you didnt expect, Jet2 will not be one of them, they will emerge from this with the strength and vigour to take full advantage of the situation. A much larger, more profitable entity will appear from the other side of this mess. So, before you think you know everything, touting your opinions on here concerning something you really know nothing about, (lets face it, what most of you guys know about aviation and airlines you could fit on the back of a postage stamp), just think to yourself, how justified is what i’m saying. Money going to run out in three months - another deluded comment. No money coming in, but very little expense other than staff cost, most of which covered under the furlough scheme, yearly maintenance costs of £100m and about £150m owing this year.... how is $1.5bn going to be burnt that quick? So they’re burning £333m a month are they based on what? And im assuming that £500m is customer deposits etc. Get a grip. This will recover it’s previous highs and more, maybe not this year, but certainly within 18 months. I wouldn’t invest in DTG being in this industry if I thought they were gonna go down the pan, i’m heavily invested here because unlike other airlines, they have an honest management team and a team of people that run the best airline in the uk by a country mile. Good luck to all of you believers and to those of you who don’t, get lost and go play with your toy plane set.