Member Info for Flying101Dutch

It’s moving on minimal trading activity. So I wouldn’t read too much into it. A ton of shorting positions still active too

As optimistic as I am about where CBG is going medium term, your valuation is wildly optimistic. With TNAV around £8.90 any movement above £10 requires significantly adding to current lending portfolio. With 20% staff cuts on the way, we are still a fair way away from increasing much above £6 in the short term. The business has to gain trust that the turn around is in full effect and the longer term strategy bears fruit

Doesn’t say much when it comes to CBG. They already found 98% ineligible even before the FCA announcement

It now comes to whether the provisioning is in line or close to the £300m figure set aside. A RNS will reveal and expect sharp price movements before it happens

Someone has just bought 1m worth of shares in OT. Strikes to me that something is known in the city

Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Noble does not expect Lloyds to change its provision much.

Noble commented: "The FCA motor finance consumer redress scheme has been confirmed with softer conditions and a smaller industry wide impact estimate. It is difficult to tell how it will impact individual banks and we await their statements on the matter. Lloyds have said previously that if the previous FCA proposal were enacted in full it would not move their provision much. We assume therefore the softer proposals will mean Lloyds does not materially change their provision."

Close Brothers has set aside GBP300 million. Late Monday, it said it was "assessing the potential implications of the redress scheme on the group".

Noble added: "Close Brothers has been less specific- post the last consultation the company said that the cost could be materially higher or lower than their existing GBP300 million provision. And so while the proposal is softer it's not clear yet what the impact will be."

Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Noble does not expect Lloyds to change its provision much.

Noble commented: "The FCA motor finance consumer redress scheme has been confirmed with softer conditions and a smaller industry wide impact estimate. It is difficult to tell how it will impact individual banks and we await their statements on the matter. Lloyds have said previously that if the previous FCA proposal were enacted in full it would not move their provision much. We assume therefore the softer proposals will mean Lloyds does not materially change their provision."

Close Brothers has set aside GBP300 million. Late Monday, it said it was "assessing the potential implications of the redress scheme on the group".

Noble added: "Close Brothers has been less specific- post the last consultation the company said that the cost could be materially higher or lower than their existing GBP300 million provision. And so while the proposal is softer it's not clear yet what the impact will be."

Looking for viceroy comms. Where is it? Link would be great

Easy to manipulate. You either trust in what has been said by both sides and ignore the noise or you buckle because of the “unknown”

If the scheme is broadly the same as proposed then provision should be adequate

You’d think that over the next couple of weeks there will be a steady rise of the share price. Shorts unwinding, potential long delays on paying out. Relatively small % of shares out in the open market

To qualify, consumers must have had a discretionary commission agreement, allowing car dealerships to keep any extra interest they got customers to pay on a loan; had a commission worth over 35% of the total cost of credit or 10% of the loan; or tied the dealer and lender into an exclusive arrangement.

‘Our 35%/10% threshold is the point at which our analysis best indicates that borrowing costs may have been more strongly affected by the commission, such that its size would likely to have been a major consideration in the consumer’s mind had they been aware of it when they took out the loan,’ the FCA said.

Seems to me quite stringent and limited conditions no?

If you’re in for a quick return, this is not the share for you.

As a potential long term investment and good yield producer it still very much is. Depends what timeline you require return on

Thanks for that. Makes sense now

11-Aug-25 16:35:12 542.00 206,532 Sell* 1m UT

Someone did

07-Aug-25 16:35:10 533.00 145,690 Sell* 776.53k UT

If you read the last few pages then you’d get a decent idea

From ChatGPT

The key distinction is between the percentage of Close Brothers' own loan book that is motor finance (which is around 20%, or roughly £2 billion) and their share of the total UK motor finance market. My search has confirmed that while they are a major independent player, their overall market share is much smaller than previously implied.

Revised Estimate of Close Brothers' Liability

Multiple sources and analyst reports provide a clearer picture of Close Brothers' market position:

Market Share: Close Brothers is considered a specialist or independent lender in a market dominated by much larger players like Lloyds' Black Horse, Santander, and Barclays. Their market share is estimated to be significantly less than 5%.

Analyst Projections: Before the Supreme Court ruling, analyst consensus estimates for Close Brothers' total liability ranged from £150 million to £230 million. This is a far cry from the £2.7 billion figure derived from a faulty assumption.

Using these more realistic figures and the FCA's mid-range industry-wide liability estimate of £13.5 billion, we can now recalculate Close Brothers' potential exposure.

If we conservatively assume Close Brothers has a 1% to 2% market share of the affected loans, their liability would be:

1% Share: £13.5 billion x 1% = £135 million

2% Share: £13.5 billion x 2% = £270 million

This range of £135 million to £270 million is much more aligned with the company's £165 million provision and the analyst estimates.

Conclusion on Valuation

This new information is incredibly important. It shows that Close Brothers' management and analysts were likely correct in their initial assessments. The £165 million provision is a very plausible figure for the eventual cost of the FCA's redress scheme.

The final outcome is that the company is not facing a catastrophic financial event. Instead, it is navigating a significant but manageable liability. This strengthens the argument for a strong re-rating of the share price, as the company's underlying profitability and solid capital position are no longer overshadowed by an outsized, unquantifiable risk.

From your other posts BeardedDragon:

“I only post on shares I hold so no reason for me to be negative. It simply annoys me that the Pump & Dump brigade are allowed to spread their lies on here and often tempt innocent punters into buying at silly prices. If ramping then at least provide supportive evidence or reason”

A) do you hold and b) can you bring supportive evidence to your magic £3.25 figure you seemingly plucked out of thin air