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CTM - both you Fakevenues make some good points, but the problem isn't where the money is coming from it's timescale. We all would very much like Tilapia up and running tomorrow but it's not going to happen, and even with the minister and Goma out of the way, and that's not guaranteed, we have no idea how long it will take to full ratification. In the mean time we may be sitting on an operation up and running within a couple of months in a marginal field. in addition, you have to take into account we will automatically have all the ingredients in place, including the licence. Not to mention the fact that a large proportion of these marginal fields do not need wildcat drilling, many are already producing but are capped and for one reason or another the operators either ran out of money or a major just wasn't interested in pumping 500 BOE per day. Of course we don't know what we will get but lets face it, AC isn't going to take it on if it's not worth it that's for sure. The Arab Consortium is sitting in the background waiting to finance a project I'm sure, and more like them that would gladly come up with financing for any project that has already found the oil. So funding is never going to be a problem. To give you an example of the kind of funding that may be available in addition to the already mentioned, please see below -

RNS - 11th January 2021
"We are already at advanced stage of cooperation with the Fleet team to jointly progress a number of compelling opportunities to enhance our portfolio, as well as exploring potential project financing from certain Middle Eastern financial institutions for our intended operational activities during 2021."

The likely outcome of the Marginal field bid round should be a split bonus fee between the local operator and Zenith each paying 50% according to the size of the field. We must assume the bonus fee to be minimum $5m, $2.5m from Zenith. With what he already has in the hold he already have over one and a half million available from the drawdown so should be easy to find more if needed. I don't think funding is a problem. He may already be costing the marginal field in already. You may remember I was looking for a reason why he opted for the private placing when he told us he would like to avoid doing so. Could also be why he convinced Candax to take $100,000 in shares. Just got a feeling he knew the marginal field was coming and planned for it. There is no reason why he should take into account the cost to develop Tilapia because the SNPC still owe him $6m, with the increased oil price.

Ezhik - you obviously know far less than I gave you credit for. Teresa Goma, the Director General supposedly sent a letter to AC, who said he did not receive. The letter was in fact sent to African Intelligence magazine who published it for all to read, you obviously didn't. In it she claims to have been aggrieved in some way by accusing AC of misleading the public by claiming in web page interviews that Zenith held the licence, other than we are in the process of getting the licence. Whether this is true or not AC has been very careful to mention "potential" in every RNS or other media information since. AC was obviously so dismayed by the whole event that has taken legal action towards African Intelligence. So your word "potential" is really quite important, you should do your research.

As for the word I used. I actually thought I had invented it because about a year ago I couldn't find it in any dictionary. So I continued to use it in the hope it was entered as a new word, only to find, a year later that it is in fact now in a few. Even LSE spell checker acknowledges it as a word. Thanks for the compliment, but you really must do your research. One other thing, I thought I would be helpful by correcting your spelling of Tilapia in the heading at 10:46.

You have an innate tendency to wrap most of your nasty insinuendos up in an acceptable format. I think the term used is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

I think you will find "potential" is not a red flag as you call it. Potential is a word AC has to use for legal reasons. It is in fact more importantly to do with the Congo licence, in connection with the letter sent from Teresa Goma to African Intelligence.

That's great news, not for adding more shares of course, but for confirming the validity and potential of his most recent purchase.

I'm not quite sold on the fact that both the Minister and the Director General are fully against Zenith getting the licence. Back in June we were asked by the ministry to establish a new company Zenith Congo, and were awarded the winning bid over 9 other companies, two of which were substantial in size and had enormous clout with the Nigerian President, who, it was said, spoke on there behalf to President Sassou Nguesso. We went on to sail through the IPU committees financial and technical evaluation leading to where we stand now. Some underlying current or influence must have played a role in pushing us to this point. It may just be that the president wanted Zenith, and his ministers had no choice but to toe the line. It could also be that Teresa Goma woke up one morning and said I'm going to be out of here pretty soon, so lets get rid of this guy who keeps knocking on my door and calling me twenty times a day. Remember, she used the word "incessant" in her recent letter to AI.

Our Legal Claim
It seems I haven't drawn much interest from my post of the 18th at 19:10. I thought I would give it another try in case it wasn't shown to some.

The potential to be company changing. The following passage is from the RNS of the 11th November 2020. It refers to the legal claim against SMP, the rig owners that messed up the drilling of Tilapia 103 and 103c for AAOGC. The sum claimed is $3.1m. However, our legal team were considering an increased claim for the losses incurred by the mismanagement of the 103/103c drilling. We know from records that AAOG ploughed $20m into this operation, so in theory this is potentially the figure that could be claimed. We have heard nothing for quite a while and thought it might be about the right time to hear from them. Any thoughts on our chances of getting this $20m would be welcome.

RNS of the 11th November 2020
"Following interactions with its French legal advisers, the Company has decided to continue vigorously pursuing the Claim to recover costs of approximately US$3.1 million. The possibility of increasing the Claim amount is also being explored in consideration of the commercial damages suffered by AAOG Congo as direct result of SMP's drilling performance.

The Company has not provided for the potential recovery of such costs in its cashflow projections. Therefore, any success in this matter would enhance the Company's cash position."

MGS - thanks for that, I think in all honesty we are both singing from the same page but look at it slightly different. I would like to draw your attention to something that's had very little mention but has the potential to be company changing. The following passage is from the RNS of the 11th November 2020. It refers to the legal claim against SMP, the rig owners that ****ed up the drilling of Tilapia 103 and 103c for AAOGC. The sum claimed is $3.1m. However, our legal team were considering an increased claim for the losses incurred by the mismanagement of the 103/103c drilling. We know from records that AAOG ploughed $20m into this operation, so in theory this is potentially the figure that could be claimed. We have heard nothing for quite a while and thought it might be about the right time to hear from them. What's your thoughts on our chances of getting this $20m?.

"Following interactions with its French legal advisers, the Company has decided to continue vigorously pursuing the Claim to recover costs of approximately US$3.1 million. The possibility of increasing the Claim amount is also being explored in consideration of the commercial damages suffered by AAOG Congo as direct result of SMP's drilling performance.

The Company has not provided for the potential recovery of such costs in its cashflow projections. Therefore, any success in this matter would enhance the Company's cash position."

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RNS - 15th March 2021
"By way of this acquisition, we have further reinforced our settlement in Tunisia, enabling a demonstration of our technical and financial capabilities locally."

Now this is very important imv. There has been through much media and ministry format, insinuations that Zenith could not fulfil it's financial and technical obligations/commitments in terms of new concessions (ministry letter from Goma, African Indigence etc). This comment in the RNS reinforces his financial commitment, intention and technical capability on the ground, if required. Utilising the workover rig would demonstrate these qualities of investment and technical knowledge to the full. I personally would find it difficult to carry through with an expensive endeavour such as this without the full licence intact. However, AC might assess the risk with a more informed view and far more technical experience. So we could see an RNS in a few weeks time telling us the workover rig is on it's way to Tunisia.

MGS - you've covered a lot of ground there so I'll be brief on the points raised.

"So the license extension is 99.9% certain to happen."
Tunisia is presently a coalition government in a state of turmoil. What if they decided to form a new government by way of a new election who adopted a new greener energy policy. Not quite as unlikely as you might think. Certainly not impossible.

ACs comments of 17th March - RNS - "and delivers immediate daily production revenue" - confirms twice, once here and once in his recent tweet, that we will be receiving payments immediately. So we can't argue with that. That's of course if revenue is classified as cash and not barrels of oil. On this point, you say you estimated Candax last sale of oil was in November and was next due on the 7th May. If that's the case, less than two months away, why are they selling?

Dig Oils arbitration award of $619m in April 2020 against the DRC for ignoring a contracted licence agreement with Dig Oil and giving the concession to the presidents cronies. Please see the governments comments below -

Further Africa - 7 May 2020 - DRC hit by oil explorer’s bid to enforce US$619M award
"The government has previously argued that both the arbitration tribunal and the appeal court refused to take into account the discretionary powers of the the nation’s president under Congolese law."

What this means is under the Democratic Republic of Congo law any contract ever signed isn't worth the paper it is written on because the President can wake up one morning and as you say, on a whim, shut your operation down, as what happened with Dig Oil. Even with the licence in hand, it seems, they would still be exposed to flagrant dictatorial actions. This is only one of many incidents of corrupt practices used by African countries. I'm not saying there is much chance of this happening, my point is, without the licence Dig Oil would not have a leg to stand on and would not have won it's case.

The deal is good but the circumstances in which the deal is set are not. in fact I think it's made our situation somewhat worse. It has highlighted the fact that even after approval and even though, as in your words, ratification is pretty much rubber stamped, it can take 2 years or more to get the licence ratified through parliament. Where I and others were seeing our Sidi El Kilani prospect being approved in quick time, we find ourselves not only without approval but now with the possibility of a 2 year wait for ratification.

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AGEOS - I have no reason to believe they will occur, I am of course playing devils advocate here. I am confident that if he survives the stresses that arise from delayed receivables we could be laughing all the way to the bank. However, there is a lot of time to pass and events that can happen to scupper that position. Investors must be made aware that this is not a given. Although much of what you have said will be included into the contracts signed by AC, we will only know for sure when the first payments are received.

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I was trying to figure out why he didn't pay the whole amount from the proceeds of the $500,000 just borrowed from the draw down when he had just told us he would avoid devaluing the company at all cost. It's obvious, he's going to need that money to stay afloat because nothing is coming in for quite a long time, or he needs that money to purchase another concession, or a combination of both. On the face of it the deal is good, but the worst case scenario you describe may not be quite as good. If the licence is refused the ministry would still have to give permission to sell the oil stored, and there is an outside chance that they might look at it as an asset of the concession and he would lose not only the $500,000 profit but also his stake money as well.

There is no question this guy knows how to put a deal together, and he is taking full advantage of the situation using all his skills in a treacherous environment. I have a substantial investment here and have no doubt his endeavours will come through. However, we must not put too much emphasis on this deal in particular, treat it as an add on and concentrate on what we already have.

MGS - I agree, this is a debating base for all shareholders to converse and inform. None of us can get it right all the time but the fact that we are throwing around ideas makes the forum far more interesting. Shame there isn't more who take it seriously.

This is how I see it. At the moment he is out of pocket by $150,000, in 60 days he will be out of pocket a further $100,000 de-valued shares. He will have access to $1.25m at a future undefined point in time with a licence acceptance hanging over the whole deal. The ad hoc situation, as you described, where the operators are there with no real authority is not an ideal situation for companies to operate. The thought that you could be kicked out anytime stifles investment and prevents things like workovers taking place. Who in there right mind would pay out $750,000 for a workover plus downtime with no licence in their pocket.

So lets look at the optional chances of success. Candax must be of the opinion that the 25,000 barrels of oil are a minimum of 6 months out of reach, I'm sure we all agree on that. So we need to forget that for a moment because that is not a near future trading value. The next good thing is the $14,000 a day that is not totally ours until the ministry decides to allow the oil to be sold. So it begs another question, how long has Candax waited, so far, to sell it's oil and how long will we have to wait for us to sell oil that has accumulated in the mean time. Lets be honest, we could be looking at a lot longer than 6 months before we get a penny. What's the chances of us getting the Sidi El Kilani approval and ratified. I would say very strong, but because of the time it has taken the ETAP, EPZ ratification (2 years), I wouldn't like to hazard a guess when this will happen. What's the chances of getting the ETAP, EPZ ratification. Well they already have approval, it's only ratification to complete, so anytime in the next two years maybe, or not.

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MGS - I think you missed my post at 09:52. Please read first and get back to me.

Look, I don't want to waste peoples time, it's clearly stated. "The New Concession is currently awaiting parliamentary approval." yesterdays RNS. So why has it taken two years for this to be ratified, and if it's not, what happens. All bets are off, including our deal. So everything hangs again on the issue of a licence. I'm not trying to de-ramp the share for no good reason. I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why the market has reacted so badly to such a good deal.

MGS - in your view, has the ETAP, EPZ 20 year licence been ratified through Tunisian parliament?

Fakevenues - I am assuming that was a snipe at me. If I'm wrong I apologise in advance. Just to clarify, I'm agreeing with what MGS has said purely on the basis of his extensive investigative skills and hard work put into it, and respect for him. I'm not completely sold on the view that this money is immediate even though I've written in agreement, due to the fact that the market certainly does not agree with MGS and the market is usually right. So until this is clearly defined I am securely sitting on the fence.

MGS - I was curious of AC's wording in his tweet yesterday - "delivering daily production revenue to Zenith" - wasn't sure if he meant - will be delivering daily production revenue to Zenith. After reading your detailed post I'm now sure he meant exactly what he said. Good post by the way. It would mean that he is immediately bringing in cash in excess of $14,000 per day rising to $30,000 when worked over, not forgetting the 25,000 BOO in the hole. It's interesting also that he has agreed to issue shares for the $100,000 payment within 60 days after completion when it's usually 30 days. He may be expecting the share price to rise. In terms of market perspective, agreed, if money coming in is immediate the share price should have had an immediate uplift, so from that point of view it was disappointing. However, it seems none of us are absolutely sure that this 20 year licence is securely held. On that basis the market may be holding back. Lets wait and see what AC has in store for us in the next 60 days.

Fakevenues - I looked closely at that paragraph and could not come to any other conclusion other than we could be in for a very long wait. We have just gone though a nine month period waiting for that very same approval, just as did Kufpec and CNPC with their licence. We are now a new entity joining the group so it all starts afresh. The saving grace would be we receive our licence for Sidi El Kilani and then be viewed as an excepted licence holder and not a new operator. Even so this will take time. I'm sure AC will give us a clearer indication of how long it will take in the next Investor call.

There is no question this is a great deal but we must not lose track of what this means in terms of the company value and strategy to move forward.

First we have to look at where we were before this news. In a nutshell, not one profit generating asset apart from our Italian generators. Everything hanging on three licences in Tunisia, Nigeria and Congo. So where are we now, still waiting for three licences + one. The new deal has not yet been ratified (passed through government legislation into law). The problem with this is that we have no idea yet how long the 20 year licence submission has been in progress. We don't know when it started, or if it started with us on board or not. So in essence, we are no further down the road than we were before the RNS. We all know only one licence is required, and we all know nothing, due to this RNS has changed, so It's pointless being dejected over lack of interest. Everyone is waiting for the same thing, to get that licence that will secure the companies future. Congo may still be some months away and the Tunisian political situation is quite unpredictable at the moment. Nigeria imv may be the best way forward because it not only provides a potential money making asset, it provides an asset and a licence in a package that is imminent. This then is an immediate value asset for generating institutional investment or borrowing guarantee with the banks. AC's forthcoming investor call will, I think, provide us with more info to clarify many questions posed by this new deal, so not long to wait for that. To be honest, I don't think anyone really cares what licence comes first as long as it comes.

I was just about to say the same thing. This guy is usually spot on, tends to call it as it is and isn't afraid to call out those that are wrong. Could be very interesting indeed.