Member Info for flexmw

Share price needs to break out of that downtrend channel to keep heading in the right direction….

Upomega

Here’s an interesting chart posted by Baron, doesn’t quite cover the whole of May but you can see the drop in price, his earlier post in the thread mentions the drop to 38p per therm…

https://twitter.com/baroninvestment/status/1531214999749787648?s=21&t=ax85fofqCV3ckRWqPjVIIg

Newkotb

It was from your post that had me keeping an eye on the charts myself, approx 26th Jan saw us move above high 230’s & stayed above since… I nearly mentioned it to you last night after reading your post..

Upomega

I saw a tweet this weekend from a guy posting his charts on sqz, saying 245p needed to hold or we could move lower to the 230’s range, I copied up last years LTIP RNS & was going to post a reply saying I wouldn’t be surprised if we had something from the Bod this week to defend the price as it would be to close for comfort for them if the price moved into the 240’s, we’ve been approx 4 months 100% higher than that RNS, two more months & they’re awarded 587349 shares each (ACW & MF), low & behold this morning we have an RNS … pure coincidence….

Maverick

That is a strange one ‘Presenting our forward plans in more detail & hearing shareholders views’… never seen anything written like that before…

Anyone currently planning on attending the AGM ? i’m thinking of going..

Now that’s the largest uncrossing trade i’ve seen … £3m…

31-May-22 16:35:21 261.00 1,290,960 Sell* 3m UT

Upomega

You’ve been a holder longer enough to know what you’ll likely to get from the Bod, personal view is unless you contact MF direct by email with direct questions, you won’t get an RNS outside of the customary ones, I think it’s just business as usual for them…. which it should be.. It would be nice to be wrong but let’s see… next RNS most likely ‘notice of AGM’ ….

Personally I’d like to see a Director Share Purchase announcement at times like these, heavy share purchases from ACW & MF, show support for their shareholders… zero chance on that though….

Notmyjob

The knee jerk reaction wasn’t half of their holding, the share register as at 30/04/2022 had them at 6.23% as pointed out on the day by Newkotb,

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

TR-1 Major shareholder notification

AXA reduced from 9.86% to 5.03% holding….

Boardguy

I listen very carefully to all what’s said in presentation etc so I know clearly what’s been said regarding strategy, Alex Stahel who presented the recent Twitter Spaces session is Swiss & faces tax issues from dividends so of course he’s championing share buy backs, he also says he holds 0.7% of the register & Id imagine in contact with MF regularly, from these sessions there’s clearly an international presence in shareholders who may face the same implications.
From my post this morning re GKP, they clearly adapt to situations, hence bolting on a Special Dividend… why can’t our Bod do that? you mention the cash build.. I’m not particularly comfortable with cash sitting at around 50% of the market cap, we’re prime to be taken over now.. not something I want to see at this stage.. when results were released in April we were over £4 per share, market cap circa £1.1 billion, it’s been downhill since that day, & we’ve lost circa £300m off of our value, whilst cash has risen, the Bod could quite easily adapt to the current situation & announce a change to the dividend, which would lower cash to market cap & possibly give us a boost…. will they.. I very much doubt it.. waiting until September interims might be to late..

GKP bolting on a special dividend to their proposed annual ordinary dividend, to be approved at their agm by shareholders, they seem to get the balance right between capital expenditure & shareholder distribution…..

They hold less than half what we have in cash on the books, worth a read of their RNS this morning for comparison…

Managed to listen through the session, a lot of information in there, it’s a long listen but pretty worthwhile.

One thing to add on the M&A, which has come up in the chat in the past, which has been about doing deals at this current Oil/Gas price level, which I thought was worth noting:

Seller’s expectations are very high, Buyers expectations do not match that & will not match that, deals can be bridged with a contingent payment, so deals might be done at 75dollars per barrel with a contingency in the deal if Oil/Gas stays high for several years.. M&A is still quite buoyant in the N.Sea & if counter-parties are willing they will find a way to do a deal… focus would be on a producing asset where Serica can add value..

Will be interesting to see how this plays out, M&A has been spoken of so much in these two latest presentations, will be interesting to see what takes place between now & the September interim’s, if no M&A then the Bod know they’ve got to do something with the growing cash pile, a special dividend was mentioned & not ruled out, the speaker Alex was clearly in favour of the share buyback facility depending on where we are market cap wise to intrinsic value..

Here’s the link for anyone who’d like to listen to the earlier Spaces session:

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPgQBErmJN

I’ve not had chance to listen to it all as yet, so no comment from me, anything from anyone else who listened in??

Alex has updated his NAV table ahead of the Twitter Spaces later today, risked NAV 617.6p per share :

https://twitter.com/burggrabenh/status/1527014330520190977?s=21&t=rnljhAonzrXqyRlp46eHOA

Today 4pm Twitter Spaces : Mitch Flegg talks with Alex Stahel

https://twitter.com/burggrabenh/status/1525130285758697472?s=21&t=rnljhAonzrXqyRlp46eHOA

Well it looks like the second Investor presentation with Mitch Flegg is on, hosted by Alex Stahel: 16:00 19th May, Twitter Spaces..

This could be interesting as from listening to Alex on other Spaces he’s got a quite direct style, the Spaces are recorded so will share the link for anyone who can not make it at the time..

I read this tweet, is there a Jefferies note out today & does anyone have access to it & can share??

With the market cap now around £875m with this current move, our cash levels must be building to circa 45% of our market cap, not going to take much to be at 50%… that Negative Enterprise Value maybe moving closer in the latter part of the year..

Newkotb where do you see us with cash build at the moment?..

ExproNews article on upcoming N’Eigg drill, may of already been posted, interesting comment at the end if the commentator has any weight to it..

https://twitter.com/sericaenergyuk/status/1523334386627878918?s=21&t=keV6fV9xsZpZVfUNAegZZw

2nd Presentation & what’s happened to it? …. Alex Stahel who was/is going to host a twitter Spaces with MF, which was due to take place the latter part of April.. well he’s been asked, by myself and a few others if there’s any progress on this, no reply to myself or the others.. I find that kind of interesting knowing that he would most definitely push for it to take place, originally confirming he’d had a call with MF & was just waiting to set a date….. this could coincide with the BP share divestment, or other corporate activity behind the scenes…. or MF simply too busy which i’d be surprised as they seemed to hint at wanting to connect more with their shareholders…..