Member Info for fleccy

According to my guess chart, Canada PPIB are now down over £26 Million.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzpntXIbDbv3WIJxMzgrF484U08WUxqoWPJuzrHhTKoVPC-2NGC_bsiH4p5RVM3E8LnsOtS6NazImN/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

I'm invested in BT and Vodafone, so I have mixed opinions, but even without BT airing a strong opinion against this merger, it's on dodgy ground. If it does get through, I suspect Vodafone and Three will be made to make big concessions over spectrum and the management of joint ventures with the other players.

"Fleecy Is so stupid it's David vs golaith not samson vs golaith.. this lad is hopeless."

Haha, you're correct that I mixed up the historical characters, doesn't mean I'm wrong about QBT's chances of achieving their goals. Clearly Samson would beat Goliath, as long Delilah is out of the picture.

It's being upped to 5.69p.

As many have said, many times on here, each update from QBT has been more can kicking, I would say this is the make or break year for QBT; They need to show real revenue streams from their products. I'm guilty of being highly sceptical of QBT's ability to transfer their products from the lab to the live Bitcoin network, due to the massive brute force processing power crunching numbers at an unprecedented scale.

Apparently, “The Bitcoin network produces ~67 times more hashes per second than there are grains of sand on Earth.” -“In terms of raw operations per second, Bitcoin is ~500 times more powerful than the world's most powerful supercomputer”.

Even if QBT's methods work, they would require an extremely large number of ASIC's to prove it. It also wouldn't surprise me if the big operators have their own algorithms running at their front end's, maybe with ongoing in house development. Personally I think QBT are trying to achieve the impossible on a shoestring budget, it'll be a samson vs Goliath victory if they're successful.

Thanks, I'll make sure I fully understand whatever quotes I get and the work involved. Whichever heat source I decide on will require some radiator replacements, so it'll probably come down to a combination of the upfront cost and where I see the cheapest running costs, and nothing to do with being green.

"Bizarre trading after 4. Anyone know whats going on."

I've had a quick glance through the trades after 16:00 and nothing unusual jumped out at me, apart from the fact that the RNS appears to have been released at 16:10 and the share price did nothing off the back of the notification; Unless anyone else can point something out?

I can't resist it either. Looks as though the shorters brought two too many horses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhYLfK8GSr0

I've watched a fair few of Heat Geek's video's and read through some of their articles, but using myself as an example, much will depend on upfront costs on top of the £7,500 Government grant.

My house currently has a Baxi Gas System Boiler, with a standard unvented water tank requiring replacement as part of a heat pump installation, as low temperature heat sources require larger tank coil's to heat the water efficiently. Something else to consider is the pipework throughout the house, the Flow and Return feeds on my boiler are 22mm pipe feeding manifolds distributing the water to the radiators via 10mm Microbore pipes, which is where Heat Geek's cheat sheet comes in handy. My boiler probably has a differential flow and return temperature of around 20 degree's C, Heat Pumps are most efficient with a flow and return differential of 5 degrees. I can't see the pipework above my boiler, but if I'm lucky the 22mm feed's split just above it, so a 28mm feed from a heat pump could potentially feed the downstairs manifold directly, with the 22mm upstairs feed pipe connected after the downstairs manifold; So I might get away with a lower flow differential and not require hydraulic separation, which would still be dependent on the heat loss calculations for the rooms and the house as a whole; But I would likely need larger replacement radiators too.

Because Gas is 4 is times cheaper than Electricity, termed the Spark gap/ratio, a heat pump would have to be at least 4 times more efficient than a modern gas boiler and then you'll still only break even on energy costs using the standard OFGEM capped tariffs. I saw the OVO special tariff of 15p per Kwh, offered in partnership with Vaillant heat pumps and heat geek, which probably makes a heat pump system running costs slightly cheaper than Gas in that particular case, but there's still the upfront costs to take into account.

Houses in the UK are very close together, and there's currently a planning issue that heat pumps aren't allowed within a 1 Meter boundary of your next door neighbour, although that's currently under consultation.

When I do decide to replace my boiler in the next couple of years, I'll be getting various quotes and asking a lot of questions. Things to consider are upfront cost vs payback and I'll only go for a heat pump if it makes financial sense to do so.

A lot has to change before Electricity replaces Gas as a heat source and much will depend on Government policy, but I imagine Gas will still be around for the next 10 to 20 years.

Where did I say IOT would do anything for the share price? It is clear though that IOT will create new revenue streams as time goes on, especially when it comes to smart cities and for monitoring/controlling large numbers of devices over wide areas. It isn't feasible to connect millions of remote devices via WiFi, that's where 5G Mobile IOT has a place.

https://www.gsma.com/solutions-and-impact/technologies/internet-of-things/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/GSMA-5G-Mobile-IoT.pdf

"Couldn’t resist at this price. Maybe get a bounce maybe lose the lot"

https://images.app.goo.gl/wRyU9vUGwYS2d8AH6

You'll be fine as long as you invest in some of these:

https://www.safetygloves.co.uk/Polyco_7576.html

"we need the update urgent."

If history is anything to go by the Final Results are due out around the end of this month.

I haven't done a lot of research into IOT, but I agree that things like Fridges, Central Heating and other home appliances use WiFi, but there are still lots of future IOT needs that wont be covered by WiFi. Cars, lorries and other vehicles are the most obvious future IOT use case, with IOT monitoring potentially used for checking everything from Engine performance to traffic control, there are over 33 Million cars on the UK roads. Then there's IOT use cases for remote monitoring of countless devices used in utility services. If something is really remote, IOT over 4/5G could compliment off grid low power devices, using solar and batteries, by giving real time status updates. IOT isn't about monitoring the status of your fridge, it's about supplying up to the minute monitoring of countless devices where WiFi isn't an option.

"Meanwhile, starlink live streamed online gaming last night and maintained crystal clear live stream"

LEO's have their place, but it isn't offering residential service to the masses, LEO's are better suited to providing backhaul services to remote locations. I honestly don't know what Musk is thinking, with a goal to put 12,000 satellites in low earth orbit. The average lifespan of a LEO satellite is around 5 to 7 years, and because Starlink satellites are at the lower altitude of 500 to 550Km I suspect their lifespan is closer to 5 years.

OneWeb's plan seems far more sensible with 630 satellites, along 12 synchronised orbital planes at an altitude of 1,200Km. At 1,200 Km OneWeb satellites will have less orbital drag and will offer backhaul service rather than direct service to residential customers. Clearly the OneWeb satellites will have more delay in both directions, due to less satellites and higher altitudes, Starlink is around 40 to 50 milliseconds latency and OneWeb comes in around 70milliseconds in tests. Even though Musk owns the Rockets, it's still expensive to put 1000's of satellites in Low Earth Orbit and replace them year on year as they fail.

There are also alternatives to LEO's, like HAP's, that could easily offer a superior cell service, compared to LEO 's, due to being significantly closer to the ground at altitudes in the region of 17 to 22Km; HAP's can also be landed for maintenance, repair and upgrades, satellites can't.

Putting 12,000 Satellites into low earth orbit is impractical in my opinion, unless the real reason is to support some sort of military or intelligence objective, where money isn't a concern.

Not all buybacks are about cancelling shares, they might hold onto shares to cover Hybrid Bond calls.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=17624073&format=interactive

In our previous house we replaced an aging oil fired boiler with a 13Kw heat pump, and although it just about did the job it wasn't without issues; At the time I would have gone for gas, but it wasn't available on our road. If Gas was as expensive as Electricity, per Kwh, then it'd probably be a no brainer to go for a heat pump, but the current capped SVR for gas is 6.04 pence per kWh and 24.50 pence per kWh for Electricity; From next month the capped SVR comes down to 5.48 pence per kWh for Gas and 22.36 pence per kWh for Electricity, up until the 30th Sep 2024.Because of our previous experience we have a slightly tainted view of Heat Pumps.

There are other obstacles to having a heat pump; The newer generation of Heat Pumps use R290 Refrigerant, more commonly known as Propane, and because Propane is highly flammable there are strict regulations on siting the Heat Pump, due to various clearance requirements.

I have no Idea if our house would be suitable for a heat pump, it's got 14 radiators fed with 10mm Microbore and 3 towel radiators fed via 15mm copper pipe; In our case the central heating backbone feed is 22mm pipe feeding the entire house, since that's the size of the outlet from our boiler, so any assessment would have to take into account the heat carrying capacity of the whole system before resizing radiators.

There's a lot to consider when upgrading to a heat pump, while Gas is substantially cheaper than Electricity many may decide it isn't worth the hassle.

All that said I'm open minded and will probably get several quotes before deciding whether or not to go with a heat pump. Something else, if we did go for a heat pump I've considered if we'd even need Gas at all, since the only other appliance using Gas is a fire in the living room which we never use, saving nearly £100 a year standing charge; But should I keep the Gas connected in case the heat pump breaks down in the winter and have the Gas fire as a backup heat source 🤔. Clearly there are a lot of variables and things to consider before moving from Gas to a heat pump.

Much to my wife's dismay, due to me looking at NG's recent comments about Heat pumps being the future, and their move away from Gas to Electricity, I decided to take another look at heat pumps. We have had a heat pump at our previous house and we weren't particularly impressed.

A good efficiency (COP) for a heat pump is around 4 in mild weather, but that can drop to around 2.5 at 0 degrees C; Heat Geek say they can get a COP over 4, but I'd guess much will depend on various factors, for example coastal temperature's will be milder than somewhere like the Pennines, or Lake District, and the current Central Heating pipework may also affect efficiency if it isn't replaced. My house uses 10mm Microbore, so unless I was willing to go through the disruption of having new pipework throughout the house, which I'm not, I'm limited on the size of radiators I can upgrade to; Basically the larger the radiators, the lower the flow temperature required and the more efficient the Heat Pump.

Currently the capped unit price of Gas is 4 times cheaper than Electricity, so basically a Heat Pump COP of less than 4 will be more expensive to run than a Gas boiler, with both on the capped standard variable rate tariffs. One of the reasons I'm considering a Heat Pump is that my current house is now 14 years old and British Gas inform me that the boiler is reaching end of life, due to lack of parts, and my wife would like to change various radiators with something a bit more cosmetic, like uprights in some of the rooms. I think all my current radiators are too small for a heat pump, apart from the heated towel radiators in the bathroom and ensuit's, and the even though the current cylinder is unvented it would also need replacing as part of a change to a Heat Pump system. I think my current central heating system is quite well suited to a heat pump upgrade, the Gas Boiler is in a cupboard in the kitchen right next to the wall and the space on the other side of the wall is probably where I would have sited the heat pump anyway, so they could rip out the boiler and hook into the existing pipework without tearing into the fabric of the house, I'm possibly the exception rather than the rule on that.

This video talking about various tariff's is interesting, but bear in mind that Heat Geek have a vested interest in promoting Heat Pumps and their most efficient installations will likely be the exception, rather than the rule, without significant changes to an existing household central heating system as part of any upgrade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c88Wv1HSlXs

There's a £7,500 Government grant for new Heat Pump installations, but it's likely a new cylinder and rads, plus installation costs, will take the price above that. I'm undecided if I'll upgrade to a heat pump in the future, much will depend on the price of Gas vs Electricity and other factors. I'd be interested to read other peoples opinions on this?

I noticed that article the other day, and immediately thought he must have a vested interest in presenting a negative narrative. He even inserted this from a 2022 report "The World Broadband Association (WBBA) recently published a white paper predicting residential broadband connection speeds of “up to” 50Gbps by 2030 – that is about 725 times faster than the current UK average". That is way out there and ridiculous in my opinion, it was talked about in this ISPreview article

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/10/world-broadband-association-predicts-50gbps-home-broadband-by-2030.html

The report did have a disclaimer saying that it's figures for their 2030 timeline is speculative, personally I think I can say with 100% confidence that people wont need 50Gb/s links by 2030. Carriers may start using 50G-PON links by then, if they have a lot of customers on a single fibre, but I can't in all honesty see 50G-PON being required by 2030.

The article was aimed at persuading the reader that BT will be caught in constant upgrade cycles, similar to the past, but I'm of the opinion that you're talking generations before any further infrastructure upgrades are required. I can imagine new tech will be rolled out slowly as required, so after 2030 it'll be more evolution without major refreshes.

"Meanwhile Starship flight 4 today. Once proven it can lob 100 starlink or other provider sats into the sky each time."

Mole, Starlink is absolutely no threat to any Terrestrial Mobile, or Broadband provider. People who think Starlink, or any other LEO provider, is a threat to any Telco needs to read up on RF Bandwidth, RF link budgets, and increasing atmospheric effects as you move ever higher in the SHF and EHF Frequency ranges. I'm not sure if it was you that mentioned Starlink demoing a direct LEO to standard mobile video call, but to support that call over a 500Km distance would require a huge amount of gain at the LEO end of the link, and probably perfect weather conditions. As I said in a previous post because of the amount of gain required, the LEO probably has to use a large area of it's phased array antenna's to facilitate the one call. LEO's would me more appropriate for backhauling 5G services in remote areas, where you can have small cells covering an area, maybe powered off grid with batteries charged via solar panels and a dish to connect to the satellite; Direct to cell is heavy on satellite resource and probably has very limited use.

If you want an example of what I'm talking about, check out BT's Lundy service fed via OneWeb.

https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-and-oneweb-deliver-high-speed-satellite-connectivity-to-lundy-island/

"On May 22, analyst Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs forecast that the BT share price could potentially more than double to 290p, while confirming a Buy rating on the stock."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/uk-stocks-goldman-sachs-backs-bt-group-bt-a-predicts-over-100-upside/ar-BB1nyRR2