Member Info for fleccy

"The sats generated are so small, due to their small hash rate contribution, that it would be counter productive to mention them as people would then be able to determine the scope of testing which QBT clearly want to obfuscate"

Something else to consider, FG's comments about burning out chips and harsh environments might suggest they're considerably overclocking their ASIC's; If this is the case then any results should also state any potential overclocking contribution.

If they are mining as part of a pool, how would they measure any performance improvement as a standalone member? I would guess they'd have to work in collaboration with the pool owner, and any pool members who decide to mine using QBT's algorithms would have to be given the choice to participate.

A reduction of 365,745,259 shares in June.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1812824850&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1451011517&format=interactive

It's correct, Rahul Naik doesn't work for QBT, apparently he's just moved from Capital One to JP Morgan Chase and I doubt he has much time to commit to QBT; As far as his SHA256 Optimisation hashing algorithm is concerned, it was a project he did while studying at UCL. Around the same time Rahul Naik did his project at UCL, Dr Timo Hanke and Sergio Demian Lerner developed Asicboost.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rahulnike/?originalSubdomain=uk

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.00575

I just watched the latest Video again, after reading the reference to military spec chips lower in the thread, but the only harsh environment I can think of that might burn out chips is either lack of cooling, or overclocking the chips to death. Overclocking a chip is fine and many do it to get performance far in excess of the design spec, using techniques like liquid cooling to protect the chips. Are QBT overclocking their test ASIC's to ontain better performance? As new ASIC's are manufactured, using ever smaller Formfactor's, they generate less heat and offer faster performance with the same power and can hold more components, so 3nm will run cooler and faster than 5nm.

"They have been mining Bitcoin for 4 months Hex. We don't know the results but FG said there is lots of interest at the conference"

They will be testing their methods on the live BTC Network, of that I have no doubt, but have they released any detailed information on the testing?

How many ASIC'S are they using for testing?

What is the expected timeline for the results?

Which rigs are they using for testing?

It would be useful to have detailed information on the testing setup, since scale will determine how quickly investors can expect results. In my opinion if mining Bitcoin is the target for determining the success, or failure of their methods, then they'll need significant scale or it could take years to obtain meaningful results. As I implied in a previous thread, a doubling of performance wont be apparent unless you have enough rigs for it to reap measurable results.

I already have, it was a rhetorical question; Clearly they haven't made any progress since the last update, as expected, going off the Final Results statement,

The Final Results QBT released today, have they made any progress in proving Method B works in a commercial setting?

19th June, Zesty asked:

"What are you hoping for from these results fleccy, given all your crypto negativity, success or failure?"

This is what I said in reply:

"Zesty I believe QBT are trying to achieve the impossible, so I'm not expecting much in the way of progress to be honest"

What's the verdict based on these results?

Just to add, I expect BT will dispose of redundant exchanges very quickly once the 30 years are up.

I'm sure this has been discussed before Aus. BT can close a percentage of the buildings during the contract period, but BT will have to wait until the 30 year leaseback period ends for most; They can however close buildings and start the process of stripping them out at anytime, which will save on power and release any scrap value from redundant equipment and cabling.

BT Exchanges fall under the Specialised Estate umbrella, this is what BT state in relation to their agreement with Telereal:

"BT has the option to purchase the reversionary interest from Telereal

(i) when BT vacates a property at open market value

(ii) at the end of 30 years for the specialised estate (buildings of an operational nature such as telephone exchanges) at open market value or

(iii) if BT wishes to terminate all arrangements with Telereal at any time, in which circumstances BT would pay open market values for the property and compensation to Telereal covering funding costs and equity return."

"BT has the right to renew the lease of the specialised estate for successive periods which, in total, amount to 130 years. After 130 years, the freehold specialised properties revert to BT. The leases include normal commercial restrictions and convenants."

https://www.bt.com/content/dam/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/annual-reports/2002/bt-annual-report-form-20-f-2002.pdf

As far as lease liabilities are concerned, BT can close Exchange sites and start clearing them, but I believe the current leasing agreement doesn't end until 2031. They can end the leases on a percentage of sites per year, but the majority of leases wont expire until the 30 year agreement expires.

"The property agreement will see BT selling outright about 30% of its buildings, but maintaining occupancy agreements with the buyer.

It will also sell the leasehold on about 70% of the properties, but it stressed these were operational buildings for which it would retain the freehold and exclusive control."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12290/BT-raise-2bn-property-sell-off.html

Velo Cash Flow will increase because Capital and Operating Expenditure will drop, it's as simple as that; The speed of cost savings and Capex reduction will determine rate of cash flow improvement, but it isn't a case of need as it's been part of BT's plan since at least 2020. The only possible things, I can see, that might affect BT's finances in the short term are litigation payouts and the success of competition in taking market share, both of those are currently speculative and could go either way.

"I’m also pondering this is what attracted so much shorts & possibly outside share interest."

Aus I take exception when posters use the the word distressed in relation to BT's financial position; Distressed companies are restrained from paying dividends, or funding Capex from earnings, BT is far from being a distressed company.

The more recent short sellers are likely betting that the Class action judgement will go against BT, otherwise why maintain the short positions when BT has risen 35% since early May? It's possible that some of the short positions are a hedge for long positions, but who knows if that's the case for AKO and CPPIB?

Aus I don't quite know how to interpret your last post, are you saying BT is a distressed company? Clearly they're mainly financing their Capex from earnings because they can, while protecting their credit rating.

Velo you say:

"Proof needed? - the CEO expanded early last year on needing 5 years to solve this issue. She again referenced cash flow issues on her mind, just recently at the full year results. She intends getting to grips with it"

Can you link to the statement where she presents it as a problem? Because I interpret what she said differently. In the results she actually said:

"Looking forward, we will sharpen our focus to accelerate the modernisation of our operations, and deliver growth for all our stakeholders:

• Leveraging our significant investments into our networks and platforms to accelerate migrations and deliver the best converged customer experience

• Focussing on the UK where we have a strong competitive advantage. While our global business sits outside this strategy, it shows strong commercial opportunity, so we will explore ways to optimise the business and potentially partner to accelerate the rollout of Global Fabric, our network-as-a-service, and achieve scale

• Accelerating transformation; we delivered our previous cost savings programme 12 months early and building on this momentum, we announce a further £3bn gross annualised cost savings

• Peak capex now passed as a result of improved efficiency and a clear focus on connectivity in the UK

This sharpened focus allows a clearer path to significant cash flow expansion in the short-term, and a doubling of normalised free cash flow over the next 5 years"

Velo you're spinning it as though she found a problem and intends to fix it over the next 5 years, but all I'm reading is that Cash Flow will increase as Capex winds down and cost savings show through on the balance sheet. In reality she's only reiterated what Jansen said last year, but in a slightly different way, as I've pointed out a couple of times in some previous threads.

In FY22 results Jansen said:

"We remain confident in expanding normalised free cash flow by at least £1.5bn, when compared with FY22, by the end of the decade. This comes from lower capex and lower opex as we move past peak capex and towards an all-fibre, all-IP network"

Normalised FCF in FY22 was £1.392 and Jansen said he remained confident in expanding it by at least a further £1.5bn by 2030, so around £3 Billion by 2030. Kirby just reiterated what Jansen said the previous year, so no change in BT's forward looking outlook, it's just that the market decided to listen on this occasion.

Savage if BT sees revenue growth then I'd view that as a bonus, but it's their ability to reduce costs and grow the bottom line that I'm looking at. BT's move to PON, with the move to a fully converged cloud network, reduces their buildings/equipment footprints and their electricity bill. Passive Optical Networks are more electrically efficient and will offer bandwidths capable of servicing access network requirements for generations, this will likely be the last major access network refresh cycle for the next hundred years. On the Mobile side 6G is more of an evolution of the application layer and will reuse 5G frequencies in many cases, any 6G EHF and Far Infrared cells installed in stadiums, shopping centers, train stations, etc, will be more akin to WiFi than current mobile cell's, and will rely on Fibre to each of the cell's to enable the larger bandwidths servicing the much large numbers of simultaneous users accessing the service.

Should have mentioned, Cash Flow is covered in the second Tab, top left of screen

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTga-e_OMKY-RszcRtUutcyaP_KjD12HX7w2CCEuL0CvSTuRB6D_nhUO2pY8qYjSmnSXE2e9t2xe5sq/pubhtml

"By the way, before I sign off for this month - I intend listing all the necessary cash flow metrics again, in list form in one post, so anyone can print them off, if they wish."

Here you go:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTga-e_OMKY-RszcRtUutcyaP_KjD12HX7w2CCEuL0CvSTuRB6D_nhUO2pY8qYjSmnSXE2e9t2xe5sq/pubhtml

In all honesty Pete I don't know what new opportunities will show themselves for Telecom companies, but the requirement to handle ever more data closer to the edge means more datacenters and more fat pipes feeding into the datacenters. It could open opportunities for co-locating edge servers in Exchanges/head ends and all sorts of other possibilities.

Net Neutrality is currently giving content streamers a free lunch; Whereas Sky and Freesat currently pay to use satellites, and Freeview channel providers have to pay for transmission from towers, they're all looking at eventually moving exclusively to streaming only; Should OFCOM decide to re-appraise Net Neutrality rules, around things like content provision, the free lunch days might come to an end.

Something else to consider is that Altnets and others have to operate through MVNO's when offering mobile services, whereas MNO's like BT/EE, Vodafone and VMO2 will have higher margins as they own the networks. There are a lot of variables in the Telecom space, companies like Google can't survive without Telecom providers, the same isn't true the other way around.

AimMaster you come across as a little desperate to see BT's share price drop?

This is what you said in early May:

""AimMaster2018

Posted in: BT.A

Posts: 5,274

Price: 105.10

No Opinion

RE: Possibly Sub £1 next week ?4 May 2024 12:38

So we're expecting share price to be well below £1 next week. Imho may take few trading updates before we can confirm the cost is controlled. Could see 70 to 80p in short to medium term imho.

Your 70/80p possibilities are currently well and truly in the rear view mirror.