Member Info for fleccy

"If vod axed it's divi so it could either pay off debt,or invest in some of the things you are suggesting, would the share price drop like a stone as suggested, or something else? "

A look at what happened to BT's share price, when they axed the Divi, answers the question.

"Easy money and at super low rates as well. Seems the market isnt in the least bit worried about lending/revolving a bit of cash to Mikey. And they are the people with the accurate numbers and expertise to work out the risk level, better to listen to them than armchair commentators i think."

"Mikey will raise sufficent funds as and when required, indeed with the initial aircraft quite substantial cost savers they will assist the procurrement costs as the phased arrival ramps up."

I'm not an armchair commentator Day, I just pointed out what was in the results presentations, in reference to the potential "forced sell-down" affecting Non EU share holders.
It was JohnBri who initially raised the issue of the $22 Billion for new aircraft, and I agree debt financing is extremely cheap at the moment. RYA pull in approximately €8.5 Billion in revenue, with around €885 Million net profit in 2019. The new Aircraft will likely improve the net profit, but €18 Billion in debt added to the current net debt of €2,276.5M, is a lot for a company who's net profit is only likely to reach around €1.5 Billion over a number of years, and they'll have to pay a fair bit of interest on that debt annually, possibly up to 3%.
It's just things to bear in mind, it's neither negative, or positive, it is what it is. Don't nod off Day, DYOR.

"Could not a similar vehicle be applied to potential UK shareholders"

I just googled it lol, and apparently there's something called a Global Depository Receipt. I suppose it would require a company to set up a GDR for Ryanair shares, but you'd probably still have to sell your shares, and reinvest in the GDR if someone set it up. I would think the GDR's would be limited in number, and holders would have no voting rights. Again I'm just guessing.

"OK Fleccy I give up, why do you post on this bb?"

Because Ryanair's an interesting company, and I like to share an opinion.

"What is your opinion on the matter and do you believe Ryanair can compel you to sell."

They've probably taken advice on what they can and can't do. They may state that Brexit has changed the situation and they may decide to delist all their UK shares. I don't actually have a clue about what's allowed and what isn't under special circumstances. I suppose you'll find out. Really you should contact Ryanair and ask them to clarify their plans. I know BT delisted from the US, forcing all ADR holders to sell their stock.

"BT Group terminated its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) programme on 23 September 2019 following its announcement notifying of its intentions on 14 August 2019. On 23 March 2020 BT’s Depositary, JPMorgan Chase Bank, sold all remaining deposited ordinary shares and returned the net proceeds to the registered holders (after deduction of the cancellation fees and any other fees and expenses)."

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/individual-shareholders/adr-holders#:~:text=BT%20Group%20terminated%20its%20American,intentions%20on%2014%20August%202019.

"Where does this leave American Investors who hold sizable interests in Ryanair ?"

US is different where dealing is through ADR's, as it's always been. I think this is directed mainly at UK purchases, but you should clarify that with Ryanair if you're concerned.

"U.K. residents can hold non voting shares, they are not forced to sell, also it is not a RYA rule it is a European Rule."

Indeed they can, but RYA are saying "Non-EU purchaser => sell-down notice" in the results presentation pack. In the results presentation itself, O Leary said that the board has extended it's powers, and will be writing to non EU purchasers asking them to sell their shares to EU purchasers, and if necessary forcing them to sell. It's around 20 minutes into the results presentation.

"UK nationals cannot acquire ord. shares
• Long standing non-EU restriction (since 2002)
• Extended to UK nationals
• Non-EU purchaser => sell-down notice
• Non-compliance => forced sell-down"

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Ryanair-FY21-Presentation.pdf

"Do us all a favour and bore the crap out of a bb where you have an investment."

Don't tell me where to post, and I wont tell you where to post. If I was posting all positive things you'd be showering me with praise for my opinions. If you want to comment about my posts, then present counter arguments countering my opinion. Just telling someone to shut up isn't a counter arguments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-749A0fJeU

"Down by 5%!...you were right ihalliwell"

Good call, I expected the price to go up. I wouldn't read too much into this, it seems the MM's are playing their games. The same happened with BT after their results.

Still in opening auction, could mean a pop.

"See i think people can over analyse things too much and read far to much into things complicating them for no tangible benifit"

Where money's involved it pays to analyse things. Day did you watch the results and Q&A presentations on RYA's website? I have, and I'm not even invested in Ryanair. Some key points I picked up on:

RYA are looking at increasing EU share ownership, so UK investors are at risk of being forced to sell.
In the Q&A, they did mention financing for the new Aircraft, but they only referenced to the debt markets, and suggested they would look at the best finance options. They didn't mention a rights issue, but I suppose that would depend on the availability of credit at competitive rates.

All may go wonderfully and RYA might get financing at extremely low rates, or there's a possibility that they'll have trouble with the Bond markets and need to tap shareholders. Since a massive amount of goodwill is built into the share price, based on current fundamentals, the risk is to the downside going forward imo. Saying that everything will go swimmingly because "Uncle Mikey" says so, is more akin to religion than investing.

I did state something incorrectly though, I said:

"The assets held in the current fleet are valued around €9 Billion"

What I should have said was:

"Over 85% B737 fleet debt free (€7.3bn book val.)"

"I also do not remember any formal guidance on them selling their existing aircraft? must have missed that. Probably will do, but your just making assumptions, again."

Its not an assumption, it's in their results presentation slides. I'm surprised you missed that Day ;-).

"210 x B-8200 “gamechanger” aircraft (+4% seats, -16% fuel, -40% noise)
• Sell older aircraft / return maturing leases
• Better lease & maint. terms (less outsourced maint.)
• BBB rating = cheaper finance"

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Ryanair-FY21-Presentation.pdf

"Nice to see your happy to 'be corrected' on your aircraft funding estimates tho. As we all know nothing has been made public on that front, so there is nothing to compare or correct your guesses against, they remain as such just your guesses and nothing more."

It's a fair question, how are they paying for the new Aircraft?

"If Mikeys right with his predictions of 200m passengers, and we all know he usually is, then future profits are certainly going to make this last year look like a 'blip'."

They aren't giving forward guidance for FY22, but are expecting it will be close to breakeven. The market is being extremely kind to RYA in my opinion. The assets held in the current fleet are valued around €9 Billion, with the intention to sell aircraft in order to offset against the cost of the new Aircraft. Following the pandemic, I'd hazard a guess that the resale value of their old fleet wont be anything like the book value on RYA's accounts.
In the current set of results, they reported net debt of €2,276.5M, I expect that'll increase by whatever the cash burn is over the current financial year. and will probably be unaffected by paying down the Eurobond due in June, and the £600m CCFF loan, as they will come out of cash.
Depending on the payment schedule for the new aircraft, I expect RYA will have to take on a significant amount of debt to pay Boeing, as new aircraft are delivered. In FY20 RYA generated Revenue of €8.49bn, with the new aircraft costing $22 Billion, and RYA already having €2.27 Billion of Net Debt, and taking into account the sale of current aircrafts will nowhere near cover the cost, RYA will either have to go to the Debt Market, the shareholders, or both, in my opinion. I'm happy to be corrected if anyone knows how RYA will raise the cash for the new Aircraft? I haven't read anywhere that it could be funded via Rights Issues, but a watering down of the stock would likely impact the share price, but I have no idea if they'll do that.

"OUTLOOK:
FY22 continues to be challenging, with uncertainty around when and where Covid lockdowns and travel restrictions will be eased. The Group expects Q1 traffic to be heavily curtailed to between 5m and 6m guests. With a very close-in booking curve, visibility for the remainder of FY22 is close to zero although bookings have jumped significantly from a very low base since week 1 of April. It is therefore impossible to provide meaningful FY22 guidance at this time. However, as recently announced, we think that FY22 traffic is likely to be towards the lower end of our previously guided range of 80m to 120m passengers. We also (cautiously) believe that the likely outcome for FY22 is currently close to breakeven – assuming that a successful rollout of vaccines this summer allows a timely easing of European Govt. travel restrictions on intra-European traffic in time for the peak travel period of Jul./Aug./Sept."

"Fleccy appears to be of the opinion that April and May 2021 is going to be worse, cash flow wise, than the 12 months from April 2020 to March 2021 !"

Not at all, I'm just pointing out that the €3.15BN cash figure is out of date. They will have burnt through some of the cash over April, going into May. By July, I expect that they'll have burnt through more cash, including paying down the €850m bond due in June 2021. Unless they borrow more, in the meantime, I'd expect the cash position to be below €2 Billion by July.

"to see that the kitty only has 3.15billion euros left in it - i seem to recall some predicted bankruptcy. :)"

That was on the 31st March, as per the RNS on the 7th April. The current cash, and Net Debt position won't be available until the Q1 results become available on the 26th July.

"Fleccy selling 1% of his holdings!!!?? LOL"

I wish, maybe n a different reality. I suspect much of the opening trading is down to the AT&T/Discovery merger talk.

"if MMs are indeed doing as you say, how about the anti-collusion laws and obvious lack of ethics therein ? I'm not naive but any audit would easily uncover that behaviour."

I think the notifiable threshold, is around 3% normally, but MM's can hold a higher percentage for clearing and settlement, within a settlement cycle. As long as the buyers aren't acting as custodians, and each holder is below notifiable thresholds, then quite big holdings could be built up across various institutions, in theory. Who knows how many you scratch my back, and i'll scratch yours type arrangements take place.
I can't explain the price of Bitcoin, or any crypto currency valuations, what's going on there. Will crypto collapse when the big money decides enough is enough? I can't help but thing the whole market is rigged, at various levels , and the only way to beat the system is to go long.
I added £15,000 worth of BT stock at 106p, and another £20,000 worth at 112p, simply because I believe BT is being manipulated down, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm also in no hurry to get out of BT, so I expect I'll probably still be holding BT, 5 or 10 years from now.

"Reading recent press coverage, each article seems to state different reasons why the share price dropped so much on Thursday."

My opinion, for what it's worth.
For a start stock markets took a big hit on Thursday, and BT has a high Beta so more volatile when the market swings. BT and Telecoms in general has been beaten down, and appears to be unfashionable as far as the market's concerned. In BT's case the pack appears to be steering the herd downwards with a consistent negative narrative, and finding negatives where non exist.
My own view is that the market makers target certain stocks and sectors, for prolonged periods of time, building holdings covertly while manipulating the prices down using algo's. At some point the sector/stocks become the next big thing and prices are inflated to the moon.
Telecoms is a no brainer, as far as I'm concerned, the world is moving online for everything, and eventually everything will be controlled via IOT.

"When is the reintroduced dividend going to be paid ? Please advise"

All they've said is that there'll be a 7.7p dividend during 2021/22, but they haven't said when it will be paid. It isn't surprising that they haven't specified dividend dates as the last results were for 2020/21. We'll hear more in the interims going forward, and it could be paid as an interim and a final, or they could pay it in one go as an announcement in the FY21/22 results.