Member Info for fleccy

A big leap in Off Book trades yesterday:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=457705223&format=interactive

"In relative terms how well has the BT SP performed over the last few years and with this in mind, how successful will the strategy of an investor who chose to hold and reinvest in that period have been?

How well will his (or her) strategy have performed compared to say, the old lady (or man) who chooses to put their spare cash into premium bonds?"

Badly if you look at the last couple of years, that doesn't mean the same will be true over the next 5 years. Every dividend reinvestment at a lower price brings down the average cost per share, and the more the price drops the more the average reduces. Thing is Pete hindsight's a wonderful thing, but it doesn't help when you've already made a decision. I like the stocks I've invested in, I believe they're massively undervalued and they pay dividends, so why wouldn't I reinvest since I think they're cheap as chips?

"Fleccy is the number one person on here I look to read comments of. His investment strategy is basically the same as mine, a belief in strategy, the fundementals and the reinvestment and compounding."

I just can't resist a bargain, if my favorite breakfast cereal is on a two for £4 offer, instead of £2.70 individually, I'll buy 10 boxes in one go and save £7. With my shares I also get a percentage of the purchase back in dividends every year, subsidising the purchase even more.

"we would be better served by £3 tomorrow,and a bull market and sell, and wait for the next fall and reinvest the lot"

That only works if you're lucky in your timing, and things go the way you're hoping. In Feb 22 my stocks were all showing a paper gain, and if I'd had a crystal ball I would have sold and waited for the fall, but how do you know the market wont push your stock price higher? I've been caught out by selling on a rise in the past, with the stock then increasing by a further 20% in short order after I'd sold out, and since I don't have a crystal ball I've learned my lessons.

In truth, does the paper value of your stock matter, if you're bringing in a good income that gives you the choice to reinvest, go on holiday, or buy a new car? You can do all of those things if you get a good capital gain, but dividends give you an annual income instead of a one off boost; Granted dividends could be stopped, but that's where the risk comes in.

152,419,214 according to Google today.

"Once the company sets the record date, the ex-dividend date is set based on stock exchange rules. The ex-dividend date for stocks is usually set one business day before the record date. If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend."

https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/ex-dividend-dates-when-are-you-entitled-stock-and#:~:text=The%20ex%2Ddividend%20date%20for,date%2C%20you%20get%20the%20dividend.

My understanding is that if you're holding the share going into this morning's open, then you qualify for the dividend, and anyone buying today or even buying at the open doesn't. The record date is more about how long it takes to record transactions, and if you bought yesterday and held into this morning then that should be recorded. If you're holding shares in a broker nominee account, then they should keep records showing you as the holder on ex-dividend open, since the shares will be in their name not yours. Don't take my understanding as correct, treat it as an opinion since I'm not a financial professional, DYOR.

"Especially when returns from shorts equate to the dividend"

Can you clarify that? Anyone holding a short position in BT yesterday and holding through to this morning, would be liable to cover the dividend; The only way they benefit is if the price drops well below the dividend drop amount, and that isn't a definite.

I would never borrow money to buy shares, but that's just me. Some people may do well using leverage, but it's added pressure when the price drops. Personally I don't worry when the price drops, because I get income in the form of dividends, with no worries about interest payments due to purchasing using borrowed money.

The opening price took while to come through at 08:05:30, which is surprising since the UT volume was only 236,972.

When a CNBC presenter just described the upcoming ARM IPO as a US Tech IPO. I don't know why this country doesn't just stick up a big closing down sale board. It seems nothing's off the table.

Volumes aren't massively high, but London Stock Exchange is currently showing a total volume of 38,003,055 with an On Exchange turnover of £7,604,154.65

It's looking like Off Book trades will spike up today and beat On Exchange trades by a significant margin if there isn't a large UT at market close.

Forgot to mention, Lloyds are also Ex-Divi tomorrow.

Lloyds is also currently down 2.49% so the drops aren't isolated to BT, or Telecoms in general

I'm invested in VOD too, it's up because of E& saying they're thinking of upping their holding to 20% and a 1&1 roaming deal announcement.

I take that back, sterling is down against the US dollar lol.

Only from the point of view of Sterling vs Dollar, the interest rate rise tomorrow should already be more or less priced in. Due to foreign investments, stock prices can have a short term inverse relationship to currency movements which may account for todays moves.

I suspect it'll bounce off 113p, if today's price stays around 119p. It's incredible how the US getting a downgrade hits UK focused stocks, taking into account todays drop.

It isn't uncommon.

https://www.rdm.com/blog/rodents-the-biggest-threat-to-fiber-access-network-cabling/

Alternatively, they could drop the dividend and start a share buyback program aimed at significantly reducing shares in issue; The only problem with that is it could make a takeover attempt more likely, and Directors don't like losing their jobs.

I don't see the short term share price as particularly relevant, even though Vodafone is massively undervalued, its about Vodafone maintaining the dividend going forward. Vodafone was the only one of my my holdings that didn't completely suspend the dividend during covid ,and has been a relatively reliable dividend payer, but the narrative around a further dividend cut is getting through and holding the price down. I don't see the price dropping much from here, since the super low P/E would make any further drops unlikely, but I'd like to see more balance sheet certainty confirming dividend sustainability.