Member Info for fleccy

"Aim has a lot of critics and your out of hand dismissal of it Fleccy (quote : I would never invest in Aim) , as a market and it’s encumbents … reflects you as a person , you don’t like innovation , you don’t like new ideas"

My YouTube history would disagree with you, I love learning about innovation and I'm particularly interested in Quantum and Fusion. I've looked heavily into Crypto and concluded that the whole DeFi narrative is flawed and guaranteed to fail, especially Crypto based on Proof of Work, which clearly doesn't work efficiently. That said, I do see uses for Proof of Stake CBDC's, either linked to commodities or centrally backed tokens with real world uses, so I'm not against the technology per se, just the current hyped narrative. Blockchain is a good technology, which has lots of really good uses, Bitcoin isn't among them.

You couldn't be more wrong vauch; I wouldn't invest in any AIM stocks, far too risky for me, I am however interested in QBT's future as I'm curious to see if they prove me wrong.

Amazing how speculation can pump prices, whether it be Bitcoin or QBT. It appears a BTC Spot ETF will be approved, through gritted teeth at the SEC, but it doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin is inherently flawed. My prediction is that whatever BTC climbs to, on the back of an ETF approval, it'll probably be the last salvo before the hype ammunition runs out, with BTC will falling away in the coming years.

As far as QBT's concerned, I'll believe the hype when I see the earnings coming through, accompanied with independent real World reviews. If the software does what it says on the tin I'll wind my neck in, but I'm highly sceptical since QBT don't appear to have tested using live data on the BTC network, so their test results don't reflect current Bitcoin difficulty. The Bitcoin network runs 24/7, 365 days a year; Anyone can run rigs on the network and join pools, why have QBT limited their testing to difficulty levels much lower than the current level? I'm basing that view on the method A video where they state the data is based on a difficulty level with 10 leading zeros.

Nearly a third of the Net Debt is comprised of Lease Liabilities, which will reduce as a result of the building closure program. BT will see significant reduction in operating costs once FTTP/5G rollout's are completed, with savings from staff reductions, building/housekeeping costs, energy, equipment, etc, etc. The legacy network will be replaced with a fully converged IP/Cloud network with much lower operating costs, I don't think the market has accounted for that. If you look at BT's assets, they own Openreach and the EE mobile network, with each one worth more than the current market cap for the whole of BT. As far as I'm concerned BT is a no brainer investment at the current price, but everyone should do their own research and make their own decisions.

"But ,I have to say that a big dividend is usually associated with risk.Increased interest rates impact heavily indebted companies more than others,and have a direct impact on profit."

Well you haven't spent as much time as me looking at BT, maybe you should do some research rather than relying on the market narrative's.

"The s,p, is now around 110p and you seem happy ,even though you on paper are much poorer.....Has 110p made your investment more successful?"

It isn't the first time I've topped up BT at these sort of prices, during Covid I topped up at 106p and 112p and climbed into paper gain territory when the price went over £2. If BT goes back to £2 in the future, we'll be looking at significant paper gain's on our BT holdings and a significant capital gain if we decided to sell.

I also don't see BT's debt as a problem. It was UBS who suggested BT's dividend could be cut, but I don't see that myself since BT have restated their progressive dividend policy, adding that they'll either keep the dividend at the current level or increase it. All said, it's always possible dividends could be cut, but there's always some risk when investing, you pay your money and take your chances.

I disagree with the current market valuation of BT. Simply Wall St has a fair value for BT as £4.96

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/telecom/lse-bt.a/bt-group-shares/valuation

It makes sense to me. If BT was currently sitting at around £2 a share, my £20,000 would only buy me around 9,950 shares, whereas at the current price it would buy me 17,910 shares.

With a dividend of 7.7p, 9,950 shares would give me extra income of £766.15 a year and 17,910 shares would give me an extra income of £1,379.07 a year.

People should know by now that I don't worry about sitting on a paper loss, I'm more bothered about reinvesting at as cheap a price as possible. As I said in a different thread a week or two ago, I'm hoping for sub 110p.

Poker, maybe your crystal ball is better than mine. I weigh risk against return, big returns are usually associated with big risks. If I used your mindset I'd be investing in AIM stocks where you can get potential 100% returns in short order and 100% losses if you've get it wrong. As far as hedging strategies, I'm not a professional and I don't do short term trades,

What I do get is compounded growth of my holdings through reinvestment , with better returns from the reinvestment as the stock drops in price.

Remember the Fleccy1, Fleccy 2 scenario? Where the stock halves in price in the alternate universe and both Fleccy's reinvest year after year. The dividends stay the same, as does the price in both Universes, but in the Universe where the stock halves in value, compounding eventually gives a greater return than the Universe where the stock price remains unchanged.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=1399088825&format=interactive

I see the price dropping as a good thing when I'm looking at topping up.

Yep, my wife is fully aware of our investments and we have discussions before every reinvestment. As far as the valuation of our investments, your statement assumes that stock prices for our chosen stocks will stay low forever, which is highly unlikely. I have no plans to depart the planet any time soon, but the income from the dividends would help my wife in that circumstance, since she would receive a considerably lower income from my DB pension than I receive.

"That's three losers on the trot. You keep topping up with divis and your capital losses keep rising"

We haven't lost any capital Mandy, since we haven't sold any stock. Our strategy is to increase dividend payouts year on year and reinvest while our stocks are undervalued. The best thing about the dividends is that they're tax free, due to ISA's and my wife being a non earner, I'm expecting us to push through £30,000 a year dividend income in the next couple of years.

Currently I am sitting on paper loses, but due to the low prices we're dramatically dropping our average cost per share with every reinvestment. I'm currently watching and waiting with £20,000 cash ready in one of the ISA's, if we invest in BT today it'll buy us around 17,650 shares, drop our average cost per share by 13p, and add £1,235 to our dividend income going forward. As the saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

The point I was making is that Lloyds doesn't have any investments within China, so there's no direct risk to capital, whereas HSBC and Standard Chartered do have direct exposure. I couldn't care less if Lloyds share price drops under those circumstances, I'd just use it as an excuse to top up more.

"Sure your are in a very small minority that thinks the likes of Larry Fink and his competitors are fools."

Larry Fink would sell anything if he thought it'd bring money in, they'll probably make their money in fee's and front running the market; Why wouldn't you do up investors like kipper's, if it was making you money at zero risk to yourself? There are plenty of Crypto losers out there, you only hear about the winners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7zazuy_UfI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORdWE_ffirg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkxLo4aIcaI

"I’m afraid, don't waste your time.. he’ll will never get it unfortunately.. good old fashioned Lloyds’s it is "

Blue panther, our risk free Lloyds shares will bring in more than £12,000 in tax free dividends during the current Financial year, this time warp feels pretty good.

Gordonbennett I'm open minded, explain to me the use of Bitcoin?

I can see uses for distributed database's, for storing and ensuring the security of data; What I don't get is the DeFi Proof of Work reward structure, requiring vast amounts of electricity to process small amounts of Data. I would suggest the concept of creating a reward, using unnecessarily complex and energy intensive processing for storing data, is flawed. To somehow assign a value to something that has no real world use, requiring vast amounts of energy to produce it, makes no sense.

For the fools who defend Crypto and either convince themselves or others that there's value in the tokens, time will tell if you end up on the right side of the trades when the music stops. Good luck with your timing.

I'd argue that the dividends are worth something.

Gordonbennett, explain to me how a Bitcoin token is a "macro asset"? What use is it, can you make Jewellery from it, will it power a vehicle, can you eat it, can it be used in electronics? Comparing Crypto to Fiat is also incorrect, since the value of Fiat is based on the strength of the issuing country's economies, with guarantees from Central Banks and Governments, whereas Bitcoin is backed by nothing. Because Bitcoin has no backing, the value is based purely on hype and greed, which is why it'll eventually fail and become next to worthless.

KingHas1 and Garwool1 make my point; They're either two fools without any common sense, or vested interests who want to profit from the naivety of others.

The next halving could break BTC if retail continue to shun the token. Spot ETF's are a backdoor vehicle to pull in retail investment, with vested interests eyeing up pension and investment fund cash to inflate the value of the token. Any sustained boost from ETF's, will rely on investors maintaining their holdings in the ETF's through thick and thin; If the US Spot ETF's gain approval, and following the initial boost, any subsequent significant drop in the value of BTC could potentially initiate a stampede to exit ETF's, amplifying any future declines. Spot ETF approvals may not be the long term support many think it'll be, personally I suspect Spot ETF's are a behind the scenes bailout for overinvested Whales and their backers.