RE: FT - Moody5 Dec 2023 10:17
"Among advanced economies, Moody’s warned that higher unemployment and reduced consumer confidence could lead to a sharp rise in "problem loans" in the UK and Canada.
Regarding China, Moody’s commended the country for proactively managing its growing credit problems. For the United States, while loan growth is expected to slow, major loan losses are not anticipated. However, Moody’s, like others, highlighted commercial real estate and the growth of private credit funds as areas to monitor."
Didn't spot this story yesterday, but I don't understand their reasoning for singling out the UK and Canada as high risk and suggesting the US and China are in a better position. I can't speak for Canada, but I don't see much risk around residential mortgages in the UK, as UK Banks have been careful to to ensure good LTV ratio's. Within the UK there might be more risk in relation to unsecured credit card debt, but interest rates are forecast to reduce considerably in the next year.
Since the pandemic working from home has reduced the need for City Centre office space, but from what I've read the commercial property sector is a much higher risk in the US than the UK, and less suitable for repurposing to residential or other uses. I can only go off the article I've read, but this feels very much like a sleight of hand to divert attention from the real problem areas, time will tell.